[ClutchFans] Podcast: Is Goran Dragic to Houston suddenly possible?

they dont want perimeter players. they want bigs

 

All-star potential? I don't think they will get anyone that is all that close to being an All-Star. All-Star potential could mean different things to different people. Some people might say that DMo or even Capela have All-Star potential. I would be surprised to see DMo or Capela make an All-Star team, but you never know. Both guys have upside, but Capela is a long term project. I can't see any other Rockets being possible All-Star candidates.

I would be really surprised to see any NBA team give the Suns a player with strong All-Star potential.

 

not really surprising. phx wasn't just going to give up an all nba guard in dragic for a pick and a bunch of throw ins. this was said from the beginning. everyone that thought so weren't really being realistic. but if there was one person to make a deal like that work, I'd take Morey

 

Jones isn't a ball handling stretch 4 (Wing Poser). If he could only be that.. I feel Pap helps the second unit more than ever now with his semi-playmaking ability because Smith will most like start @ the 5 against tougher competition and Dorsey would be on the second unit again. That's of course pending Capella rapidly develops or the Rox acquire another 6'11+ proven big.

 

Wanting an all star potential player and pick for dragic is delusional. Wanting it for dragic for only a few months......we need to think of a new word.

 

They have Len and the Marcus Twins + other bigs...

 

Phoenix knows anyone who trades for Dragic will get his word on signing with them in the summer first, so it's not a 3-month rental. They would have to include more in the trade than just Dragic for a player will all-star potential though.

Dmo + NOP pick + filler for Dragic+TJ Warren+Plumlee

I really like TJ Warren. He plays within offense and doesn't need the ball in his hands at all to score, but he's primarily a scorer. His defense needs a bit of effort though. If Harden of all people started to play defense, I don't see how anyone else can say they won't put any effort on D.

Dragic / Beverly
Harden / Brewer
Ariza / TJ Warren / Kpap
TJones / JSmith
Howard / Plumlee

However, this leaves Phoenix with Bledsoe and Thomas as starting backcourt, which could cause problems because of their height. If they develop Ennis enough to be a 6th man next season and make a trade package for another allstar in the offseason, centered around Thomas and picks, they are set.

 

exactly..the marcus twins aren't considered bigs. they're really tweeners, especially marcus who you can add to their list of wing players. they are looking for size. they dont have any

 

I keep hearing that Ty Lawson is the backup plan if we cannot get Dragic. Does anyone know what we would have to offer in order to get him here?

 

That's why they want Dmo. Imagine two 7-footers like Len and Dmo together. If they both continue to develop like they have been the last year, look out.

 

That trade doesn't even work because salaries do not match... You would Need Terry and his expiring 5.8 mill contract or K-pap + D-mo to make it work.. we have to get somewhat close to Dragic 7.5 mill contract before even adding plumlee or warren to the mix..

 

That's why I added "filler" next to Dmo + NOP pick.

 

Huh? Nobody in the west is that desperate and nobody in contention in the east needs him. Good luck, Phoenix.

 

Suns are just trying to up the offer. They will take a first round pick and a young, rotation quality big man.

 

I posted this in the other Dragic/Dmo thread, but the discussion about PHX wanting a potential all star made me want to put it here too...

Let's all take off our Rockets hats and put on the Phx one. You're stuck in mediocrity, just like the pre-Harden and Howard Rockets were. Your number 1 goal is to find a star. That's going to come in the form of: (i) a current star that gets disgruntled and wants out, or the existing team has salary cap or other issues; (ii) winning a FA war for a star; or (iii) getting a talented player before he blows up into a star.

You look at Dmo and see option 3. Dmo could grow into a Marc Gasol type star.

Here is your risk analysis:

Dmo never improves and remains a regular starting caliber PF: Are you any worse than under a scenario where you keep and re-sign Dragic and he regains his 2013-2014 form? Under that scenario, Dragic is still not an MVP / Top 10 caliber player and you're still stuck in mediocrity, with long term commitments to all three of your guards. What if you keep and re-sign Dragic to a long term deal, but he doesn't return to form? You were much better off having today's Dmo on your team. This really ends the inquiry. You have to take a shot on Dmo, unless you think he has very little chance of growing into a star.

What does the deal look like if Dmo improves?
- What are the odds Dmo bulks up as he gets older? He will
- What are the odds that helps him with rebounding and low post defense? It will
- What are the odds that he refines a 3 pt shot? He has the real potential to shoot 35%, maybe better. The guy is a gym rat and has skills.
- What are the odds that he improves his FT percentage? Highly likely.

If Dmo grows into a top 10 PF (or call him a C), but not an all star, you win the trade. Keeping Dragic is a highway to mediocrity, with fewer exit ramps.

If Dmo grows into an all star/Marc Gasol, you won the lotto. But you didnt jeopardize a realistic path to a contender to do it.

So, if you're PHX, in their current state, you're desparate to get Dmo. Desperate. You'd throw in Plumlee or a 2nd rounder. Dmo is more valuable to you than Dragic . If Phx keeps and re-signs Dragic, and he regains last year's form, it's not enough. He isn't an MVP/top 10 type player. His ceiling isn't high enough and he is likely too old to stay at that peak while Phx hunts for a star to pair with him.

PHX has to take a shot at a talented player who can take it to the next level. Harden was once a dangerous, talented 6th man for OKC. I'm not saying Dmo is going to become Anthony Davis. But he has a high upside that is undefined and Phx has to roll the dice.

If Dwight is healthy enough for a playoff run, Dmo for Dragic is a deal that should occur. This is like a negotiation where the Rockets are willing to do Dmo/filler for Dragic straight up, and Phx is willing to do Dmo/filler for Dragic, and is willing to add Plumlee or a 2nd round pick. The ultimate price depends on (i) information, and (ii) negotiating skill. But those details won't hold up the deal.

If Dwight is healthy, the deal happens and I'm calling Dmo/filler for Dragic/Plumlee. If no deal, I'm worried about Dwight's health b/c that's the only way a deal doesn't happen. It's not going to be because PHX overplays its hand with excessive demands. They have to be willing to deal Dragic for Dmo IMO.

 

I see your point and it's a very valid one, but I think you're missing one thing you didn't address: If Phoenix gets a good rotational player out of Thomas+Green+assets now or in July, or even a good pick they can package with Lakers' and their own pick to get a star, they can keep (and resign) Dragic.

To be fair, it would have to be a Paul Millsap type of player which is rare to find in current market, but you never know what can happen in four months from now.

 

Isn't that exactly what Boston got for four-time all-star Rajon Rondo?

 

So do the few of you that (a month or 2 ago) claimed DMo has more value than Dragic around the league still believe this?

 

You state that Dmo's rebounding improvement is a given, but there is little evidence that 24 year old 3rd year players become better rebounders. Most guys per 36min rebounds stay about the same from that point.

 

That's fair. My thoughts re a DMO/Dragic trade don't account for better alternatives involving other assets. At first blush though, I think what you're talking about seems like a longer shot. If presented with Dmo for Dragic this week, I think PHx has to take the shot.