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[ClutchFans] Podcast: Discussing the Russell Westbrook Blockbuster

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Clutch, Jul 14, 2019.

  1. gclass

    gclass New Member

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    ^^^ everyone is HYPER AWARE that winning is cyclical! with all of the fresh and brand new future NBA picks that are now allocated for OKC... their time shall come again...
     
  2. amaru

    amaru Member

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    A healthy CP3 wins us a title (as would have likely happened in 2017/2018). Unfortunately, CP3 no longer exists and we got Chris Paul in his place. A healthy Paul is an above-average player but he can't get you over the hump as your number 2 guy.
     
    Hakeemtheking likes this.
  3. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    It doesn't seem like the time value of 'money' was factored into the pic analysis. A 1st round pick 7 years from now is worth FAR FAR less than a first round pick now. Just like $10,000 in 7 years is worth a whole lot less than $10,000 now. In fact, one could even argue that a pick that far down the road is essentially insignificant now. Similar for the previous pick we traded.

    Making the current net present value of the trade much more like just swapping Paul for Westbrook.

    Does that change your view of the trade at all? it would seem it certainly should. Much of the podcast was devoted to saying how the Rockets gave up a lot...when, really, they didn't.
     
    Plowman likes this.
  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    neither does a healthy westbrook but at least with paul hes a better fit. they were a top 5 team in both ortg/drtg post all star break, so with better play by guys like capela and the bench, signings or pieces for depth they can certainly gives themselves as good of a chance as anyone else in a wide open year
     
  5. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    Um... the previous picks we traded was "insignificant" only because we don't get to see what we could have got with those picks.

    Even if those previous picks really aren't important NOW, that does not mean that the picks we traded for the future aren't important. We are in win now mode with Harden in his prime. Clutch's argument is that we will need those pick because we will be in rebuilding mode by the time of the picks. It's like saying your retirement money you are saving now is not important because it is so far down the road.
     
  6. amaru

    amaru Member

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    We haven’t seen Westbrook in this system yet. Too early to pass judgement.
     
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  7. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    i mean sure but we've seen what westbrook the player is. for 11 years to be exact. a system can only do so much and it doesn't magically make shots for you
     
  8. amaru

    amaru Member

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    Past performance can be a good indicator for future performance but it isn’t the end all be all. We aren’t privy to Harden and Westbrook’s conversations about stylistic changes so it’s a bit of a stretch to predict, with such certainty, that they will fail.
     
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  9. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    i dont think its a stretch. its not just as optimistic as other views.
     
  10. amaru

    amaru Member

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    The optimistic views are a stretch as well. As boring as it is, the truth is nobody will know if it will work until we see it in action.
     
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  11. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    then whats the point of everyone posting right.
     
  12. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Given that unmade picks do not depreciate in time - their value is actually constant. They only reason a pick in the future is more expendable than a pick now is if you are trying to win now. But if you are a middling team stuck with bad contracts, a future pick may be worth a lot more than a pick now.

    For the Rockets who are currently a very good team with a time horizon of 4-5 years potentially, a pick 5 years from now will likely be far more valuable than a pick based on having a top record.
     
  13. Deuce

    Deuce Context & Nuance

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    One assertion on Future First Round Picks that I read, I can't remember where now, maybe Lowe?.....is that picks are worth less to BIG MARKET teams that can build via free agency (vs draft) and FRPs are worth MORE to small market teams that can't get free agents.

    So the LA teams, Houston etc might be MORE willing to give picks for NOW moves with the thought moving forward that they have better chances to get top talent by other means.

    cc @Clutch
     
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  14. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    No, it's valued less simply due to the time value of things (Net Present Value in financial terms). Something you might get 7 years from now is worth a LOT less than that same thing if you got it now. For example...can you even GUARANTEE the Rockets, or the NBA, will even be here in 7 years? No, you can't. LOTS of things can happen between now and then. The uncertainty factor plays a big part of this.

    Yes, we are in win now mode. That is a large part of what also makes the time value LESS.

    Perhaps if we extend the time frame more this will be easier to understand. What if we traded away our 2119 first round pick (ie, a pick ONE HUNDRED years from now). Does that pick have any value now? Not really. That is so far in the future that its present value is basically zero. It's a sliding scale for every year out. Next year's pick is inherently more valuable than a pick 2 years from now, which is more valuable than a pick three years from now, etc. Seven years is seven iterations of 'less important'.

    Will I agree that in 7 years this does leave an issue in restocking...it ALSO provides 7 years to figure out what to do about it. Yet another reason the time frame matters. The farther out it is, the more time mgmt has to plan around it...minimizing the importance. They have time to acquire other picks, etc.
     
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  15. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    This is bunk logic. Picks do not depreciate with time. Maybe you don't care about 1000 Years into the future but you certainly care about 7. A bad team would be foolish to throw away future picks to become a middling team as it would lose both in the short and long run. A team that was very good now would be better off trading current picks now instead of future picks which would likely be with a lot more when the team is going through a dry spell.

    The rockets trading picks in the future are sacrificing the ability to rebuild in the future via the draft or trade in a desperate attempt to please their Superstar. Had James harden not demanded a trade and instead tried to play with Paul the trade would never have been done.
     
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  16. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    Are you serious? Only crazy people would believe that the NBA would not be there in 7 years.
    [​IMG]
    Comparing 100 years to 5 years into the future is absurd. And no, draft pick's value is not a sliding scale. I understand what you are saying in economic sense. The risk is higher the longer the time it is. That's why long term loans have higher interests than short term ones. But that doesn't mean future money has little value. You are confusing risk with value.

    If your logic is correct, nobody in their 20s should start saving for their retirement because you don't even know if you will be alive 40 years from now. They should just spend everything they earn now. But only fools will think that way, because when they are retired with no income, they will regret not having saved for the future. Why? Because even though you can't know for sure about the future, you can make some reasonable prediction and plan accordingly. While we don't know what the Rockets will look like 7 years from now, one thing we are certain. We won't have James Harden in his prime.

    In fact, Morey is notorious in keeping flexibility for the future. The less assets you have now, the less flexibility you will have for the future. And I am damn sure he knows it when he traded for Paul and then gave him the huge contract, and now picking up Westbrook's contract and giving up the picks for him. I can understand the logic of win now. I don't think this trade is totally dumb. But the "win now" is predicated on the belief that Westbrook significantly increases our chances of winning a championship within a short window of time. That belief is dubious to some of us.
     
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  17. Pat

    Pat Contributing Member

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    The only time I see a future draft pick losing value is if the GM who made the trade has lost his job before that pick comes due.
     
  18. JuNx

    JuNx Contributing Member
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    Does anybody know if we have a thread where we discuss Rockets GM/Coach/Players radio/podcast appearances? like there is one for Rockets Twitter I see everynow and then where ppl keep it update it. I just heard the Morey interview at the DP show and was wondering.
     
  19. luckyman76

    luckyman76 Member

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    They have a chance but likely not. Look at Philly. They got bailed out by a flawed star in Embiid but essentially squandered everything else and had to suffer miserably for a long time in a system that no longer exists. Tanking has less value now. Also you need the perfect storm of being a destination city and having your rookie stars pop so that you can sign premium FAs and then use the Bird rights on them to blow the cap. Philly ended up with maybe 1 top 10 player and 3 top 50 players. They bombed on several top 5 picks. Almost ALL of Prestis success came from lucking into top picks.
     
  20. Rokman

    Rokman Member

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    Does anyone else here wish Clutch would take down that horrible picture of Russell Westbrook on the splash page? It is by far one of the worst pictures I have ever seen of anyone, ever. He literally looks like a handicapped dinosaur taking a painful dump. Everytime I come to Clutchfans that's the first thing I have to see and I'm starting get real tired of it. Can't he just put up a picture of him dunking or something? Anything but that awful close up. I think he picked the worst picture he could possibly find since he wasn't a fan of the trade and we're all (speaking for everyone else out of turn) having to suffer.
     

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