[ClutchFans] Podcast: Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and NBA Trade Talks

RE the part where it mentions if the Lakers are aware Howard is going to walk to the Rockets - they'll take the (reportedly out there) sign and trade deal with the Clips/Rockets.

If i'm Dwight - do you even sign that contract with the Lakers?
Would you prefer to come to Houston with Asik/Lin (even if they're moved later)
Instead of coming to a Rockets team minus the flexibility of Asik/Lin?

Is it even up to the Lakers on whether they accept a sign and trade - since Dwight actually has to re-sign with them first?

 

Good points. To the putative 'draft review', perhaps a 'draft night review' of all that occurred and did not occur (protracting well past #34). Thanks.

 

We're planning on putting one out early next week that talks about a lot of the Rockets options, as well as the talent that's in the draft, in general.

 

I think the odds getting Paul to come to Houston are so low we that the people on here who are actually getting excited about the possibility are going to be in for a rude awakening when it doesn't happen. Frankly, with Dwight being the malleable child that he is, I have my doubts about him signing here as well. The great news is that there are 3 REALLY good options for Plan B out there for the Rockets! They go by the names of Josh Smith, Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. I'd almost rather sign one of those 3 outright as they all have a better head head on their shoulders than Dwight. Well, maybe not Smith but the other 2 certainly.

The great news about this off-season that we can all be very excited about is that the Rockets have a ton of money to play with, they are swinging for the fences and the odds of them getting a player that is 10 times better than what we had at the 4 last year is 99%.

Wether we get Dwight or not, or Paul or not, we are going to be a deeper team, be in the playoffs and fighting for a championship next year!

 

Yes, Dwight would have to agree to the sign and trade. So really the only way LA does a sign and trade with houston, is if the clippers offer first and Dwight really wants to go there and is okay with playing there without the players being moved in the S&T. If that were the case you may see DM decide to offer a S&T package too, but then it wouldn't make since, b/c if Dwight wants to play in Houston he should be able to do so without a sign in trade (assuming someone takes TROB off of our hands). So really its up to Dwight to decide whether he wants to play with the current starting lineup in Houston, a weakened lineup in LAC, or the same lineup as last year with LA. I guess he could pull a wild card and go to ATL or DAL, but ultimately I think the allure of playing with Harden, Parsons, and Asik should be enough to bring him here. If he decides otherwise we'll be alright.

 

i don't see Paul and Dwight being able to play together ...anywhere. Teams just don't have the cap space and moving salary for no salary in return is not easy to do. I don't see LA facilitating any sign-and-trade scenario that helps build another Miami-esq contender. Worst case for LA, is they let him walk and they have loads of cap space just in time for the best free agent class we've had in years.

I think what the Rockets have right now is probably attractive enough for Dwight to seriously consider coming on board; especially if the rumors are true about how dissatisfied he is in LA.

I still wouldn't put our chances of getting Dwight above 50% ...but I have to admit that all of the Dwight to Houston speculation has made me think we've got a real shot.

 

Thanks Clutch for putting this together, as usual Bima did an excellent job of
explaining the finances and your guests Andy/Lance did a great job discussing
the different scenarios that are in play with our pursuit of Howard.

I want to say that I'm not in favor of shortening the podcast. I know some
members might think it's a little lengthy and perhaps that your re-discussing
some topics but all members are not informed equally. These 30min. podcasts
do an excellent job of informing everyone whats going on in a short amount
of time. Once again I respect anyone's opinion that doesn't agree with me
on the length of the podcast.

Looking forward to the next podcast!!

(p.s.) Nice picture of D12/CP3....looks like they know how to tango...:grin:
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I think it's a valid concern. I don't think any over-the-cap team has a trade exception large enough, so we're just looking at teams with cap space. Then eliminate the teams that can get $18m+ in cap space because they want Howard or Paul for themselves and won't facilitate. So, which teams does that leave? And, we basically need to find 2 teams with middling cap space, and maybe a 3rd for Robinson.

Bobcats (they have plenty of cap space, but no shot at max free agents unless they reach on JSmoove or something)
Bucks (depending on what they do with their own FAs)
Pelicans
76ers (if they abandon Bynum)
Suns
Blazers

Is there anyone to add to the potential list? Then we have to convince a couple of those teams that they are better off just taking Asik or Lin than even trying their luck in free agency. Asik, okay, someone will decide a sure thing with Asik is better than anything they can hope for in free agency. But, who is going to say they won't try free agency before signing on Lin at $8m? I'd like to test what I can get for $8m on the market before agreeing to take Lin. So then the Lin trade has to wait, so the Paul signing has to wait. That's problematic.

 

+1. Great idea

 

Agreed. Very difficult long shot. I think Bima is more right on this point however...the biggest hurdle to liquidating salaries is the timing of it. That's a bigger hurdle than liquidating salaries.

The draft is on the 30th, then the moratorium where free agents start committing to their next contract, then free agent signings start. Nothing happens with these teams until the big ducks are in a row. In other words, until Dwight and CP3 have decided where they are going to go, there will only be very small trades and free agent signings. So the odds of creating massive cap space while they are undecided is very low. Not to mention it would be stupid to make transactions to create cap space and then they go elsewhere.

So, realistically Morey can't agree to big cap-clearing moves involving Asik and Lin until he knows Paul wants to come here with Dwight. So if that happens Morey has to be ready. Which means he's working hard right about now.

 

If you can do the S/T for one of them first while preserving your cap space for the other, then the timing issue(s) are avoided.

Not saying a S/T with one of the LA's is too likely either. But what if we offered Asik, Lin, TRob and Parsons, 1st round pick? While id hate to part with Parsons, I think if your LA (either one), you would have to look at this.

 

I think for Morey to find a market for Lin and Asik to get Paul, he needs Howard and Paul to come out very strong in the moratorium period saying Houston or bust. If they did that, teams would be more willing to be opportunistic and take Lin/Asik for free. But, if Paul or Dwight hems and haws and says 'maybe Houston or maybe Atlanta or maybe we'll stay put in LA' then teams are more likely to hold onto cap space to sign those guys themselves, and we can also be competing with potential cap clearing moves by other teams -- 'should we take free players from Houston or Atlanta or Dallas?'

And, I'm not confident that Houston's pitch is so good that Paul and Howard will say Houston or bust. Because they'd be happy with a superteam in the Clippers, and Atlanta with Horford would be acceptable, and who knows what else may present itself.

 

Frankly, it is unlikely to come down to "cap room to sign CP." The bigger issue is most likely going to be whether CP wants to leave LAC for any other team.

Other than being a little upset at the "CP got Vinny Fired" drama, CP has not shown any indication that he's ready to leave the Clippers-- he'll get more guaranteed money with them, and they have a team with some valuable assets and a front office who kow-tows to him. We heard about Dwight willing to leave the LA for less guaranteed money, but not CP. The whole Doc-Garnett situation is also most likely conducted in consultation with CP's camp. The Clippers are CP's kingdom.

In the end, I am not sure that any other team with or without cap room-- HOU, DAL, ATL, etc. would really have a chance to pry CP away.

 

Paul is not coming here. I think it's a waste of time to try to court him.

 

I've never liked podcast and just recently have started to listen to these from Ckutchfans and love them. Great job to everyone involved.

Question regarding a small tidbit from this podcast:
You mentioned a rumor you've heard that said Howard told Harden/Parsons that he's coming to Houston. I avidly follow the forums and the 6,000 Offseason FA threads that have been started but haven't seen this rumor before. Could you provide anymore details from where this came or even how sketchy of a rumor it is?

For next podcast, along with talking about the draft could y'all spend a minute on an update about our drafted players overseas (mainly Lull and Furkan). They, especially Furkan, might have a bigger impact next season than the #34 pick.

 

You'd have to take Parsons out. He's not going anywhere.

Lakers are most likely not to do a S&T for those pieces. Now, if you could other teams to take those guys straight up for cap space and picks (in Asik's case we should be able to get a top 10 pick in this draft or a lower lottery pick in future drafts) and you offered the Lakers a $20 million TPE and our 2014 first rounder for a S&T of Dwight, they just might do it. However, if you had the teams to peddle off Asik/Lin/TRob...why make a trade when you could just sign both guys outright from there?

The only reason for us to do a trade with either the Clippers or the Lakers is if it helps us.

As to your point...would the Clippers take that package (Asik/Lin/TRob/picks) for Paul??? Well.....dunno. They may if they know we're gonna sign him outright.

You're basically suggesting the same package I am suggesting in going through Boston to get Rondo. The reason I keep going there is I think Boston makes a lot of sense for Asik/Lin and Asik/Lin make a lot of sense for Boston's retool. And Rondo is the guy you could throw at the Clips in a S&T and get them to do it if they knew Paul was leaving. For that matter...the Lakers may want to jump on the Rondo bandwagon...knowing they can flip Pau for JSmith and get rolling with D'Aontoni's PnR offense. That's why I like the idea of going after Rondo so much if we find out both Paul and Dwight want to come here.

 

I know where but cant say. drat.

 

There are 3 distinct reasons for us to do S&Ts.

1. To open up cap space to get the third superstar.

2. To save some of our current roster that we like.

3. To possibly stay above the cap and have all our exceptions available to us to add other talent around our superstars after we acquire them.



I'm still not giving up a sign and trade or a huge double sign and trade for both guys. I think it is in our best interests to stay above the cap and have the plethora of exceptions available to add talent around our superstars. That's why I keep saying, even if it is just Dwight...I think we are going to work hard to get the Lakers to agree to a sign and trade and not ever use our cap space. And I think we can get the Lakers to agree if we give them a future first rounder or possibly some future second rounders....perhaps a young player...and the rest is a TPE.

 

He's probably not referring to any of this but..

Spoiler

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/DwightHoward">@DwightHoward</a> spotted eating at local restaurant with Chandler Parsons and other members of the Houston Rockets. <a href="http://t.co/JxuiOjHB4U">pic.twitter.com/JxuiOjHB4U</a></p>&mdash; LALiveOfficial (@LALiveOfficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/LALiveOfficial/statuses/340685551936102401">June 1, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Thanks for the help J.R.
I see you're using that multi quote function well.