[ClutchFans] Podcast: Carmelo, Love, Lowry and Houston’s options as free agency arrives

We've talked about LeBron, Carmelo, a Kevin Love trade, what are you hoping for and what do you see happening?

BT: I'm hoping LeBron, Carmelo and Bosh take league minimum and we still keep our cap exceptions. Within the realm of reality, the Rockets would like a major free agent like Carmelo Anthony. I doubt we have a legit shot at LeBron. Adding Carmelo or making a play for Kevin Love, one of those two scenarios would be the dream scenario for this off-season.

You're right about LeBron. Looks like he's working with Miami to improve that team. Carmelo, they're planning a big pitch on Wednesday. What has to happen for the Rockets to have enough cap room to make him an interesting offer?

BT: The Rockets have a lot of cap flexibility. They have a lot of non-guaranteed contracts. They have a deal to move Omer Asik to New Orleans for a pick. My guess is they have a deal to move Lin without taking much salary back, if any. They can open up anywhere from $17-19 million and still keep the core, their entire starting lineup from last season in place. I believe in the Chronicle last night, the pitch to Carmelo will be 'Hey, come join a contender. We have a core, come join that and we'll be contending for championships.' While it will be difficult to get to his full max, $22.4, I think they're banking on him taking a slight pay cut to keep this core intact.

Another is Kevin Love. He's going to get traded eventually. There have been reports he's headed to Golden State or they want Klay Thompson and Golden State may or may not be willing to trade him. It seems Golden State may have the upper hand but I was encouraged by reports about him not willing to sign with teams like Cleveland and Phoenix. The market needs to be small for Houston to have a chance. What do they have to offer in a Kevin Love trade?

BT: The asset Minnesota would most want is Chandler Parsons but that's highly unlikely, now that Chandler's a RFA. The Rockets can't push him to another team. The only way Chandler gets included is if Minnesota gives him an offer too rich for the Rockets blood and they want to include him in a sign and trade but I say that's highly unlikely. As far as other assets, I think the two biggest assets the Rockets would offer is the New Orleans pick, probably Terrence Jones, maybe Motiejunas, perhaps the rights to Clint Capela, the Rockets have all of their own future picks, and foreign prospects who are highly regarded. You combine most of those, you can get a fairly compelling offer. The question is, would Minnesota view a future package of assets more highly than what Golden State is offering in Thompson and David Lee. I heard rumblings that (Timberwolves owner) Glen Taylor is interested in winning now. If so, it would be tough to beat the Warriors package.

Glad you brought up the Asik trade. I was stunned they were able to do so well on two fronts: 1) getting someone to take on the contract for nothing. 2) To get a draft pick from what you'd think is a good bet to be a lottery team, to have that pick be protected 1-3 and 20-30, just fantastic. I was blown away Morey was able to acquire that good of a pick while unloading Asik's salary. It makes them a player for a deal like they did for James Harden.

BT: I too was surprised that they got a pick that good. There were rumblings the Rockets were asking for two or even three first round picks during the season. The media seems to paint Morey as coo-coo bird for wanting so much for Asik but this somewhat vindicates him. That pick, much like the Lowry pick, could be the center piece of a trade later.

I will say I think it's a good deal for New Orleans as well. They have a formidable front court and will be fun to watch but on the benefit factor, one injury to Anthony Davis, that team is in serious trouble. There's reason to think that pick could be a lucrative one.

BT: And don't discount the downside protection. Given the strength of the West over the East,...the Rockets may be banking on that if the Pelicans make the playoffs, there's a good chance they could pick later than 19 and the pick will roll over to 2016. I don't think we've heard exact protections there. I think they like that aspect as well. It could be a lottery pick in 2016.

I was thrown off that the Rockets would send $1.5 in cash. They had $1.5 left until July 1st. They ended up using that cash in the draft to acquire the 53rd pick. That threw me off. If cash is going to be in this deal, that eats into the cash they can use for the year. You believe or would think they would need that full amount in a Lin trade. Thoughts on when they used that cash in the draft?

BT: My first reaction was I hope they can divide it up into two trades, where they can use their 2013-14 cash for some side trade, maybe for a non-guaranteed Pelicans contract and then do the Asik trade July 10 and not use 2014-15 cash. My guess is that they ran it by the league and came to the conclusion that the league office would call shenanigans and not trade $1.5 million for a guy they would waive 2 days later. They had to use their allotment for next season. ... Another aspect people aren't paying attention to, right at this very moment, if the Pelicans do nothing else, they cannot complete the Omer Asik trade. I think there will be a move where the Pelicans move salary. Whether that's a big trade or something smaller, the numbers I've looked at, if the cap comes in where it's projected at, the almost exact amount the Pelicans need to move for Asik is the salary of Austin Rivers. If there's not a bigger trade made by the Pelicans come July 10th, look for Austin Rivers to be moved for a pick.

Kyle Lowry - I have to admit that I am surprised this is the first guy they're going after. The midnight pitch. Granted, Kevin Love is not a free agent and Carmelo Anthony is on Wednesday. It shows you Lowry is at least fourth on their list. I am surprised. Beverley was 2nd team all defense. They can upgrade over Beverley but it doesn't strike me as the biggest need. Is it the best use of cap room?

BT: The best? No but a very good one. I've always been a Lowry fan. I begrudgingly accepted moving him because the pick would be of critical use, like it was. As much as I love Beverley, he's no Kyle Lowry and being a two way player. I would hope Beverley, I don't think he'll have a shortage of playing time, I'd hope that he'd be accepting of Lowry coming in. The midnight July 1st visit, while Daryl and McHale want to make Lowry feel like he's a high priority, if they had a meeting for Carmelo lined up July 1st, they'd be meeting with him midnight July 1.

Lowry had a career year last year. I wonder about the possibility of a Lin plus significant asset for Lowry sign and trade because Toronto is a huge market for Lin. I remember the 3 pointer he hit with the Knicks to win it. I could see Toronto as a home for him but Toronto's GM is very shrewd.

BT: I think he's one of the best GM's in the league. He won't get taken to the cleaners. The good news is, with the Asik trade, the Rockets are in position even with Lin on the books, to open up about $9 mil in cap room. I'm talking Lin and even a couple other players that otherwise they may need to clear for Carmelo. They may be able to clear enough room to sign Lowry, not quite what Toronto is offering, but maybe take less over the life of a deal on a contending team. If the Rockets can line something up where they can flat out sign him and Raptors lose him for nothing, the Rockets would gain leverage in trading with the Raptors. The playoffs left a bitter taste in everyone's mouth. Both Lin and Harden didn't come out smelling like roses but Lin is a decent NBA player and has some value around the league. At $15 mil, not a lot of value but as a player, he does have value. There are teams that would value his services. If you can get a team like Toronto backed into a corner where they lose their guy for nothing, you might be able to sell them on a sign and trade and maybe that gets a deal done. Not holding my breath but that remains a possibility.

Why hasn't Lin been traded?

BT: If he's already been traded, I would view that as a bad thing for the Rockets. The Rockets need to keep as many options open as possible. I'd guess that if the Asik trade had not been agreed to, New Orleans would have traded their 2015 pick for a 2014 pick. They want to keep at least one of Asik or Lin on the books in the beginning of July because it allows them to either later trade them for cap room or keep them on the books and operate above the cap. You could include Lin's contract for salary matching purposes in a Kevin Love trade or a sign and trade for Kyle Lowry or keep it on the books for a future trade or keep him on the team next year. It allows you to operate above the cap. It allows the Rockets to maximize their avenues to improve the team. It's been reported the Rockets have one or more deals they could do to trade Lin but to actually do it now would be a disservice to the team.

They're operating as if he's not here.

BT: His return is not probable. Odds are they move him. There are certain scenarios where they strike out and rather than getting rid of Lin's contract, they might want to bring him back for no other reason, if they get rid of Asik and Lin, re-sign Parsons to a big deal and nothing else and build around Howard, Harden and Parsons, if you don't have Asik or Lin's contract, it would be very difficult to make trades for big money players because you don't have the contracts to make salaries match. You might need Lin's contract to make a future trade even feasible. ... The fact that Lin's contract is the size that it is and Asik is gone, his is the last core piece that has a sizable contract, if they can't something done this summer, there are some scenarios where they might have to bring him back. At the end of the day, it's probable he moves on.

We talked about the major options. I get asked a lot, what if we strike out? What are the fallback options?

BT: Again, this is part of the reason you haven't seen a Lin trade, the Rockets are keeping their options open. The odds of a major name coming to Houston is not 50% or greater. If the Rockets strike out on the big names, they still have a lot of weapons at their disposal. This is a 54 win team. While losing Asik, you still have a young core. You're going to get individual improvement. Even if you get nothing, you'll see individual improvement. If the Asik trade goes through,...one aside, if the Rockets can set up a Love trade or another big trade to roll the Asik to New Orleans trade into that one and make it a three-team trade and use Asik's salary for matching purposes. The Asik trade otherwise will generate a trade exception. If the Rockets don't clear the cap, you have a $8.4 million trade exception you can use for the next year. That's a nice asset to be holding. The Nuggets had similar and used that to acquire Arron Afflalo. That trade exception can be valuable. They'll have their full mid-level exception($5.3 mil--up to 4 years). You also have the bi-annual exception($2.1 mil). You can keep your young players. On top of all these things, you still have that New Orleans pick you can use in a trade. The Rockets have a ton of options. These are worst case options. A 54 win team core coming back plus all these things, the Rockets are in phenomenal shape to get significantly better in a worst case scenario.

I'm optimistic. I look at the core as Beverley, Parsons, Harden and Howard. Jones is interesting but not sure he's long for the team. Also, Chandler Parsons contract. I found out about the fact he could be RFA or UFA based on your analysis. Your thoughts on the Rockets not picking up his option? We already see reports Dallas and a handful of teams will make a play. Did the Rockets shoot themselves in the foot? Your thoughts?

BT: This is a rare and interesting situation. Rarely you have a 2nd round pick be as productive as this and be on this contract. The circumstances are highly unusual. It's quite possible Chandler will get an offer so lucrative, in total dollars, he'll make more than he would have made if the Rockets had exercised their option and gave him the max. There are luxury tax implications there, if you can get him below the max over the long haul, you save some but he's gonna get some significant offers and I think the Rockets hope he gives them time to get their ducks in a row. The minute he signs, his cap hold goes from a little below $2.9 to ballooning up to whatever his starting salary is and it will kill the Rockets chance of clearing cap room. Also, perhaps he gives the Rockets a discount for being let out of a contract that was paying him peanuts. The Rockets fan in me hopes he gives a substantial discount. The realist says Dan Fegan is his agent and he does right by his clients and gets them paid and he'll do that with Chandler. This is gonna be really, really interesting. Teams like Dallas are trying to be predatory. If all owners and GMs are being honest right now, there's gotta be half a dozen willing to make a huge offer to Parsons knowing the Rockets will match to troll Morey and screw the Rockets out of whatever other moves they're trying to make.

The rivalry between Dallas and Houston is getting intense, as far as ownership. Houston obviously beat out Dallas last year for Howard. That probably bruised Cuban's ego. I think it bothered him Houston took that step forward, you have the Gersson Rosas angle and now Carmelo. I get the sense there is a heated rivalry between these two teams. It will be interesting to see if it manifests into a lucrative offer for Parsons.

BT: I would describe Cuban and Morey as frenemys.

Definitely. You saw the little dig at McHale. Not a big deal but there's talking up the Dallas angle. This is their last stand. Dirk has maybe a few years left and they have to add the next significant player and keep hope alive. That team is heading down. This is their big hope to lure someone and move forward.

Draft - Clint Capela with the 25th pick. This draft was a bit predictable. They used the 25th pick on someone they hope doesn't count against the cap. Rockets hope to stash him, if he's not traded. They used the 42nd pick on someone they hope can play right away. 53rd pick for Gentile. I like what they did. I like the potential of Capela. I like that they'll watch him develop. His length, this team is missing that the PF position. I'm really liking the Nick Johnson pick. His strengths fit the team. His weakness, size and not a traditional two, is not a big deal here in Houston when playing alongside Harden. Very athletic. Hard-nose defense, which they lack at the guard position outside of Beverley. I like what they did.

BT: I did too. For a player as notable as Nick Johnson, he was not on my radar. I tried to follow college basketball from the perspective of NBA draft prospects. I hadn't followed Johnson enough and the caliber of the defender he was. Because the Rockets have Harden, an undersized SG with athleticism, fantastic defensive skills, and a good shot is going to be a valuable contributor on a team with James Harden. Capela a great stash pick. Not familiar with his game, other than what I see on DraftExpress. Nevertheless, he can help the Rockets in a variety of ways. Gentile, I only knew a little about him. Daryl seems excited about him. Daryl always makes sure to mention, the acquisition of the rights to Gentile, they had $1.5 to use. Credit to Les.

I get asked quite a bit, will Lull or Pap come over? I have asked these questions multiple times but I can promise you, the Rockets don't even know. Their four best overseas prospects are all trade assets right now. I know Lull and Pap and Gentile are ready to contribute. Lull is probably your best. They'd love to get him over but different things make it complicated. He wants to win Euroleague and wants security here in Houston. I don't know if or when he'll come over. They don't know quite yet which guy will be on the team and which rights they will own after this free agency period.

 

Wonder kid J.R.

 

This is great!thanks

 

Great podcast.

 

Is it possible to get Melo and Lowry? Would we have to gut the team (unguaranteed contracts plus trade most of bench as well)? Also would Parsons be gone in that scenario?

 

It's up to how much Melo want. If he sacrifice a bit, i think we can sign both...if he want max...maybe not. Morey will tell him..look buddy, we're going to have our BIG 4 on the team if you take a bit less because we can sign Lowry as well. And I think Lowry will be tempted to join the BIG 4 on the team instead playing for a loser like Toronto. If things work out, i think the Rockets will trade Lin + picks to NY.

 

K thanks bro

 

Clutch, what software/microphone do you use to produce your podcast?

 

if melo isnt coming, then lowry is gonna come...otherwise, why is he waiting for a few days to think it over if the raptors had such a great deal on the table already? lowry is waiting to see if houston gets melo or not..

 

Why did Dwight take a few days? This is Lowry's first time having the power to choose his team. He's always been underpaid, and has lost his starting job multiple times. He wants to win, but wants to get paid. It's not too crazy to think that he really is mulling over his options.

 

And no work will be done during this July moratorium...

 

Question, if both Lowry and Melo want to come to Houston, do we have the cap space to sign both at their asking price?

 

Not outright, but they could conceivably ditch Lin and Asik and sign one then do a sign and trade for the other, but that's pretty unlikely.

 

really appreciate these podcasts.
excellent work, guys.
really excellent.

 

J.R. rocks!!

 

TL;DR... Nah, just kidding. Great work, J.R.

 

Thanks for these podcasts. There is a lack of in-depth analysis on the Rockets from your traditional media outlets, so, it is refreshing to hear an honest approach to Rockets' basketball talk.

 

Lowry signed with Toronto. http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on...es-to-4-year-48-million-contract-with-raptors

 

Stop lying to yourself Rocket Fans.


You're not getting Melo.

Even against all Odds and Rocket lands Melo.

Rocket still won't be going anywhere in the playoff.

 

Now here's your host. The man who would have drafted Harold Minor over Robert Horry.

Every time I hear that, I just love it all over again.

thanks for the podcast.