[ClutchFans] Lin and Yang: Why Choose One Point Guard When You Can Have Two?

Mchale was never high on Lin. It's not some conspiracy theory, he gave him a shorter leash last year. Once Lin started play better in the second half Lin started to slowly earn the coaching staff trust. I think this year is more about Lin needing to carry the second unit because the starting lineup will still be fine without Jeremy. He is still getting a lot of minutes coming off as 6th man. I do think it was a little disrespectful that the McHale didnt give Lin and Harden a chance to work it out. Both of them can really be the best back court in the NBA, but Bev cant run the second unit. That's basically whats happening here.

 

Did he really say that? I thought he said he thought Asik was one of his top five players and wanted to start him. One can make inferences, but the meaning is slightly different.

 

In the short run sure there isn't any tangible upside to PB's try out. In the long run though there is. PB proves he is a starting level guard. THerefore upping his trade value. We could keep him and afford to let go of Lin. Package Lin and Asik or PB and Asik for a star PF

Did he really say that? Cause if so that is interesting. Well jury is still out but right now McHale is looking like he is wrong.

 

Lin has played lights out the past 2 games. He also had some 6 point games in there and has been turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate this year too. He's playing better but he's on top of the world right now with his back to back 30+ point games heading into his favorite gym tonight.

Bev has played well. He hasn't shot the ball well but it's only been a few games. Everything else is great.

This season has not had any surprises. Our record is not surprising and nothing any player has done has been surprising. So far so good. I think people need to just let things play out.

But Lin off the bench has been a good thing for him. For sure. As a starter next to Harden he'd never have the freedom to do what he is doing now. It was one of McHales best moves, even if he ends up putting Lin back in the starting line-up.

 

The first part I do agree. But the problem is that that's not the way to build a championship team. I understand you should treat every player as an asset during rebuilding process but once the core is established. You have to maintain continuity.

 

Don't agree with this. Lin has been playing great basketball since post ASB last year continuing on this pre season as well as throughout the beginning of this season. He has had a few bad games here & there throughout that time but that is to be expected nobody is perfect.
And Lin still plays the vast majority of his minutes with harden so this whole notion that he has more freedom coming off the bench is silly. He is playing like a superstar right now because he is shooting 3's at a unholy rate. Harden wasn't the reason why Lin wasn't shooting well to begin last season nor is Lin coming off the bench the reason why Lin is balling right now. Its the fact that he is healthy, improved his shot and had an entire summer to work on his weaknesses in context of the teams needs. Lin would still be hitting these 3's as a starter. If anything he would ahve even more open looks because of the amount of defensive attention harden and howard command.

Also disagree with this. We don't really have an established "core" imo. Harden and Howard are fixed. But there is still the question of Lin & Bev who is the PG of the future and we also have a huge hole at the PF spot and Asik's role is also up in the air. I think by next year we will know precisely who our "core" is. Then I agree that we need to maintain continuity.

 

As long as P"Yang" plays good D. As for his not very good O as of late, J"Yin" has got it.

 

See Yao speaks of the truth:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=246858

 

Lin has been playing well starting or not this season. That having him starting or from bench is good or bad for the team, on the other hand, is debatable. I just think it is bad for the team chemistry as we have seen in the first 9 games. in the games PB started, PB was either injured or got into foul trouble and had to come out earlier than planned. This messed up the rotation entirely. JH had to play tons of minutes and Lin had to play tons of minutes. To make it worse, the whole team was infected by injuries and flu bugs.

Due to the aggressive style PB plays, it is inevitable that he will get into foul trouble more often than not. This is why there are very few starters in the league playing aggressive defense from start and throughout. They only turn up the aggressiveness when situation demands. Do you want to PB to be conservative? No, that's not who he is. From PB's limited starts, his efficiency and impact on the game actually dropped quite a lot.

On the other hand, I can easily list a couple main upside with Lin starting. What are two main weakness of JH? Defense and tendency of hero-iso ball. By starting PB, what message do we send to JH? PB is an elite defender so he fits you better and can make up your shortcoming. JH may think. Ok, I have PB to help me, maybe I have less need to put effort in defense. Of course, I can't read JH's mind. More likely though, JH has to spend more time to play two roles, SG and PG. As a result of spending more energy on offense, his defense focus is down. 2nd, by having two playmakers at the same time can force the ball out JH's hands from time to time. So the ball movement can be improved and we will see less "sticky" basketballs. Not to mention that JH can save some energy on offense, have more trust on his teammates, have less pressure of having to do everything, focus more on defense, play more efficiently, and thus have less prone to injuries, etc...

I don't buy a bit the argument that we need Lin to run 2nd unit. What 2nd unit? In the 9 games so far, JH plays close to 40 minutes and Lin and JH have been playing together more than 25 minutes. If there is really a need for sb to run 2nd unit, you can always stagger Lin and JH's minutes so one of them can be in the court all the time as we did in some games during last season.

Like I said, I can't understand a lot of decisions that the coaching staff have made so far. It is really mind-bugling and frustrating .

 

You are not surprised that Lin is averaging 18 PPG and shooting over 50%? You must think he is better than Harden then.

 

As a formal math major, I firmly believe regression to the mean will happen sooner or later. Unless JLin's so smart & hardworking that he overcomes that universal rule.

 

Look at his stats prior to the last 2 games, his efficency has been there. He has been handing the ball over to Harden and PatBev and his been doing his thing as a SG with 7 shots avg 16 points a game. He has been super efficient. Granted he was still turning the ball over but even that was starting to go down since the role he had with the team had change. The reason you keep citing these last 2 game as him being lights out has more to do with him taking more shots, but his efficency has been there all season long.

 

why choose one PG when you can have two?

well, same reason as we chose one center when we could have 2

lin should have gotten the OPPORTUNITY to start this year. if he didnt do well, then bench him. mchale just kneejerked into this stupid decision

the point is not just if lin can play around harden

it is that IF harden is truly a top player, he should be able to make his team mates better. even lin can do this.

 

Think he has more alpha this year. The line has changed.

 

Please, could you use your math knowledge and tell us what his mean actually is?

 

As a stats loving guy, regression to the mean is a fine concept, but there are two fundamental problems with assuming that every player is "regressing" to the mean. Especially in the case of a player like Lin.

1. Sample size. The idea that Lin will regress to a mean is problematic because we don't actually have a sufficient sample size to determine the actual mean with a high degree of certainty. Last year Lin had 3 months of 33% 3pt%, then he had 3 months closer to 39%. Which is the mean? 33%? 39%? Are those still deviations above/below the actual mean? Without sufficient context we could argue either.

2. Moving target. Human beings are not static beings. This applies to athletes, especially during their developmental periods. The best modeling that I have seen projects players to peak around the age of 27. That's *still* 2 years away for Lin. And if you subscribe to the idea of 10,000 reps to reach mastery, given Lin's short NBA career he may actually not reach that number of reps for another year or two beyond that.

For example, visually we can look at Lin's jumper form and note that his technical fundamentals have improved (assuming we're operating from a knowledge of "ideal" mechanics). That has changed just in the last 2 off seasons. How many reps has Lin really put into that jump shot in that time? How many more reps will he put in? And where will that skill curve eventually plateau?

Now, we can look at 3pt% and say with reasonable certainty that numbers above 50% 3pt shooting is not only unlikely but extremely unlikely. We know this because in the history of the NBA the number of players that have sustained a 50% 3pt% over a full season, playing at least 50 games and shooting at least once (I used 82 shots as a baseline) from the 3pt line is exactly ONE.

Detlef Schrempf of Seattle (51.4%, Seattle, 94-95)

http://www.basketball-reference.com...c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=fg3_pct

If we widen it to 45% or more, the number increases substantially to 22 people.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=fg3_pct

And taking down to just 44% increases it dramatically to 40 people.

http://www.basketball-reference.com...c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=fg3_pct

So we know that there's a curve of diminishing returns. What exactly puts the ceiling on this curve is probably a combination of reps, health, team, organization, opposition adjustments, age and just plain old luck (variance).

So, in more abstract terms I think the question is less of whether Lin is going to regress to a mean as opposed to where Lin will actually plateau when his development of his 3pt shot is complete. And once we reach that plateau as the sample size increases we'll determine what his 'mean' actually will be... in hindsight of course.

Personally I think he'll shoot 38-40% this season, and eventually peak between 40 and 43% eventually, but knowing Lin's work ethic I fully expect that he'll put in the 10,000 reps to acquire a level of mastery and the reps to maintain his skills.

I know, long post but I see so many people tossing out "regression" when talking about younger players (early/mid 20's) as a reason for why their skills won't improve and it gets under my skin a bit. :grin:

Anyway, I expect over the long haul those numbers to come down just don't expect those shots to vanish barring injury or bad shot selection.

 

If you think his mean is lower than 18 ppg and less than 50% fg then what he is doing right now is unexpected ( surprising).

Seriously, even the most avid Lin fan would not expect him to play this well. To downplay how well he is doing means you are very high on him or have a different standard to judge him.

 

18 ppg and 50% FG% is very possible and could be sustainable. 50% 3pt%, not so much.

 

Considering the minutes he put in yesterday, he'll probably start that whole regression to the mean thing today.

In any case, they were leaving him pretty open from the 3 yesterday, and I can't imagine that would continue for long if he kept shooting at that rate.

 

I am not so sure that even 18 ppg and 50% shooting is sustainable for a guard. That's why I disagree with the guy as I think what Lin is doing is unexpected. To say that no player has done anything unexpected so far is simply not accurate.