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[ClutchFans] Kevin Durant to Houston? Don't Hold Your Breath

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Oct 23, 2013.

  1. d12babymamas

    d12babymamas Member

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    y'all need to rate this 5 stars btw
     
  2. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    Other hilarious that this isn't 5 stars just because people don't agree with bima.
     
  3. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Always great insight, Bima...thank you!
     
  4. jocar

    jocar Member

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    pointy elbows
     
  5. LabMouse

    LabMouse Member

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    I think Howard would take a pay cut if KD is willing to join us. The key is that KD is willing to come to Houston, then everything else becomes possible.
     
  6. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
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    Do you have any thoughts on that?



    How do you deal with that?


     
  7. NewBigThree09

    NewBigThree09 Member

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    Sounds like KD is at least considering to leave OKC :grin:
    Always a good sign
     
  8. francis 4 prez

    francis 4 prez Contributing Member

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    well there's your problem. you're operating under the assumption that there are things that are out of daryl morey's control.
     
  9. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The projection I've read for the 2014-15 maximum salary cap is actually $62.1 million.

    Assuming that such projection is accurate (remember, the current $58.679 million cap came in below initial estimates), and further assuming a constant rate of growth in Basketball Related Income (BRI), on which the cap is based, then it is conceivable that a Harden-Howard-and-not-much-else Rockets squad could add Durant in 2016 at something in the general ballpark of the max.

    HOW-EVAH (he says in his Steven A. Smith voice), this all assumes that the Rockets essentially sacrifice at least one year of their championship window by (1) letting Lin and Asik walk in 2015, or otherwise only replace them with guys whose deals expire in 2016; (2) letting Patrick Beverley walk in 2015; (3) hoping they get a GREAT deal on Parsons (and we all know Dan Fegan will squeeze as much out of the Rockets as humanly possible); and (4) they don't fully utilize their salary cap exceptions beyond 2016.

    It is also much easier said than done to just "trade away Above Average Salaried Players X, Y and Z for little/no salary", as so many people on this BBS have intimated would be done this past summer to add both Howard and Chris Paul. It is one thing moving the salaries for guys like Thomas Robinson and Royce White. It's another thing entirely to move a guy making more than the MLE if you don't want to take back salary. Teams don't tend to cooperate with you (or, just as importantly, your schedule) in scenarios like that.

    It is these OTHER variables that cause me to seriously doubt that a Durant FREE AGENT SIGNING in 2016 is a realistic possibility. I cannot fathom a scenario in which Daryl Morey allows a championship contending team that is still YOUNG (unlike the aging Mavericks championship team from 2011) to fall apart in order to plan for the remote possibility of adding a transcendent superstar. THIS CURRENT TEAM (with the right tweaks) CAN WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP!

    Listen, I'll be ecstatically eating a plate of crow if the Rockets somehow end up signing Kevin Durant in free agency in 2016. It will be the sweetest-tasting dish I could imagine, I bet. But those thinking that a Durant signing is PROBABLE (or even worse, those who will now be let down if the Rockets DON'T add Durant) are just separated from reality.

    Appreciate the team we have now and the more realistic possibilities for improving the roster over the next 2-3 years.
     
  10. okierock

    okierock Contributing Member

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    Screw you, I'm holding my breath.
     
  11. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    All this because Jalen Rose opened his mouff (my best attempt at Stephen A mimicry)?

    PS Kevin Durant will not, repeat: will not, be an FA. He'll either re-sign or be traded a year earlier.
     
  12. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    All I know is that if Jordan comes back for a game like he said I'm buying my Durant Rockets jersey the next day!!! Lol!
     
  13. Pieman2005

    Pieman2005 Member

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    OP link wasn't to ESPN or NBA, lock it up :p

    jk :)
     
  14. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
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    Tell him we'll give him Mack Brown's salary to join the Rockets
     
  15. NewAge

    NewAge Member

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    Biedrins and R. Jeffersons are overpaid and uproductive. I trust Morey will have underpaid/properly paid, productive players to dump.
     
  16. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    Breath still held.
     
  17. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I remember during the summer when I was toying with the idea, that I did it with 2016 cap number at $65mil. Now, if 2016 number is at $62~63mil, I think it's less likely to happen unless Howard takes a significant paycut. Still theoretically possible, but it would certainly lessen their chances. But I believe the cap will rise to around $65mil by 2016 offseason.


    And that's my assumption. Obviously assuming that Durant makes it clear beforehand so Morey can start go to work ala Riley for 2010.

    Correct. Which is why in my original post I said the Rockets must determine beforehand if they wish to pursue the 2015 plan(much less burdensome on the team and easier to execute) than the 2016 plan. And that they're mutually exclusive. But IF Morey decides to execute the 2016 plan, then what you laid out will be similar to what they're going for. In this situation, Parsons will be extended IMO as a RFA this offseason. So that (A) goodwill for Fegan (B) a 4yr contract beginning this offseason will only be a 2-yr contract by 2016. Which will be more tradable than 3yrs left.

    True, which is why generally salary dumps of $10mil+ salaries tend to involve 1st round picks, sometimes more than one. But the Rockets have all their own picks anyway, and Morey is certainly great at getting future 1sts.

    But a couple of things really matter here. One is that Parsons is a good player. People will rate his contract similar to Batum's. Perhaps a bit overpaid, but not enough to dislike it. The other is that teams have to pay to 90% of the cap. It's not difficult to see teams that need to fill up the cap, and Parsons is a better solution than most players. Plus, you can have 3 way trade here. Rockets trade Parsons for 2nd rounder to Tanking team. Tanking team then trade Parsons to contender for expirings and picks.

    To sum up, there are plenty of ways to get clear Parsons cap number of ~$10mil/yr. It may be not be straight forward, but certainly quite capable of being done in the hands of Morey.

    But this is ALWAYS the issue no matter which path the Rockets take, how to balance future potential with current ability. But 2016 is a long way from now. You can easily make moves for players that expire in 2016. Or perhaps some tjhat expire in 2017 but on easily tradable contracts.

    Besides, I don't see Morey making "win now" moves upcoming season anyway. Supposedly he already passed up on two potential trades in Ryan Anderson and Josh Smith. Both likely considered top 40~50 players in the NBA. Morey still wants a big fish. He's not into marginal upgrades even now.

    I'm not saying we're going to get Durant in 2016. I'm saying that the salary cap is NOT the limiting factor in getting Durant. But rather, whether Durant is willing to commit to come to Houston is the biggest limiting factor. And it's that uncertainty that is more likely for Morey IMO to go for 2015 FAs in LMA/Love, whether through trade or as FAs.

    I will make this statement. IF, and this is the IF that in my mind makes this entire exercise just fans talking delusional stuff, but IF Durant wishes to come here when he becomes a FA in 2016, I believe that the Rockets will be able to sign him as a FA.

    But there's no way Durant does that. So there's no way Morey would plan for it. And in the meantime, Morey may make a move for a 3rd star with an onerous contract that prevent Durant-to-Houston possible. Or he might not. In which case we can revisit this next offseason if the Thunder don't win. :)

    Why can't I do both? :grin:
     
    1 person likes this.
  18. Htownballer38

    Htownballer38 Member

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    So we playing mind reader up in this thing huh..bwhahahahahahaha you don't know what's going on in Durant's head/mind, so cut that nonsense out.
     
  19. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    After the AK47 thing I'm not going to assume we can't do some kind of under the table deal to make things work.

    Yes, Bima's math is sound--of course. It always is.

    But I think he may be underestimating Morey's ingenuity here.
     
  20. d12babymamas

    d12babymamas Member

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    IMO, I don't think it's really a matter or Bima's math being accuratee or Morey's ingenuity. It's gonna come down to are those three players willing to take a pay cut to play together and be almost guaranteed a championship? That should be the focus.
     

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