High quality post GBRocket, and highlights both the plus and minus of Lin (and Lin's role on the Rockets next to Harden/Howard) very objectively. Personally, I just think that Lin's starting PG position being at risk is overrated. And would only be an issue if it's a coaching decision to want a harrassing-type starting PG in Beverley next to Harden (hopefully Harden picks up his defense this year). One small part with the article, is that it neglected the fact that a big part of Lin's slow start last year was due to recovery from the torn meniscus injury. Lin missed his first game after injury on March 26 (2012), Westbrook missed his game on April 27 (2013), so basically one month after Lin. Westbrook is not only not ready for training camp, but he is also doubtful for the season opener (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9...nder-gm-sam-presti-mum-line-russell-westbrook). So it's obvious that meniscus injuries do require a long recovery time, especially for perimeter players that depend on speed/athleticism. Even for a guy like Westbrook has never had any serious injuries in his whole career, and had not missed an NBA game till this injury. So in my opinion it's hard to equate last season's slow start to the possibility that a slow start this season will likely lead to a back-up role. If we examine Lin and Beverley's stats from when Beverley played his first game on the Rockets, a 41 game sample for Beverley and 44 game for Lin (Beverley did not get off the floor for 3 games while Toney Douglas was still on the team), this is the comparison. Per 36 min Beverley 11.6pts, 6 assists, 5.6 reb, 1 blk, 1.9 steal, 4.1 fouls and 2.3 TOs Lin 16.7pts, 6.8 assists, 2.6reb, 0.4blk, 1.4 steal, 2.9 fouls, 3.2TOs With Beverley and Lin having fairly close turnover ratios (adjusted for usage) Shooting percentages (FG overall, 2pt, 3pt, FTs) Beverley 41.8%, 46.2%, 37.5%, 82.9% Lin 45.4%, 48.0%, 39%, 78.4% Beverley seems to do better on defense stats like blocks, steals, and rebounds, but with Howard starting, is that going to be a big necessity? Plus Lin had slightly better synergy defensive stats than Beverley, which may be a function of Lin starting and having Asik behind him more than Beverley, but Beverley also played against back-up PGs more. In terms of shooting, Lin actually shot better than Beverley during this stretch. Both 2pt and 3pt FGs, and also TS%, but Lin had slightly lower FT%. Lin also got to the FT line more - 3.9 vs 2.1 (per 36 min) And in terms of how the Rockets will play both offensively and defensively with Howard, on offense the PG needs to be able to deliver passes to cutters to the rim (Lin better than Beverley and showed this with Tyson Chandler on the Knicks) and be effective as a PnR passer (Lin's 5th best in league last year according to Morey), and on defense Sampson already said the Rockets are likely to funnel the opposition offense towards the rim with Dwight manning the middle (vs last year of protecting the rim), which makes Lin a better fit next to Howard with his smart position defense, at least somewhat offsetting his slower lateral defensive footspeed vs Beverley. In fact, defensively Beverley would probably work better with Asik, and offensively Beverley isn't the get the ball to the big man for at-rim shots type (more of a dribble and pass out to 3pt line type), and he would fit in well with our shooters off the bench. He'll be great in this role, and one of the best back-up PGs in the NBA with a legitimate chance that he can gradually earn a starting PG role as he improves his offensive game, over time). As an aside ... Remember last year down the stretch when Harden and Lin played the PnR together? This year, if we play the double PnR with Lin as the PG with the ball at the top of the 3pt line, with Harden and Howard on each side, that could be lethal. You've got one of the fastest first steps in the NBA who's great at dishing the ball to the big man on PnR or out for corner 3s, Howard making hard cuts to the rim drawing the defensive center to him, and Harden free to either pop out for a jump shot or cut to the rim for his Euro Step with the defense rim protector occupied by Howard's hard cut. Parsons is a great corner 3pt shooter, and if we have a good 3pt shooting stretch 4 at the corner (Cassipi, DMo, Jones, Covington, or even Parson at the 4 with Garcia at the 3 or a small ball line up with Harden at the 3 and Lin/Beverley at 1/2), this would be lethal. That'll be a beautiful play, and even more deadly than a pure Lin-Howard PnR.
If you can't distinguish the difference between this article and Bleacher's ... you belong with the Bleacher group
I would also guess the only reason Lin was on the market was due to the possibility of Chris Paul joining. Once that disappeared, Morey did not actively look to trade Lin. Lin and Asik for Chris Paul is a slam dunk, not to mention Morey ranked Chris Paul as the starting PG in his all-time NBA team.
See McHale's quote about Lin being a "good fit". http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spo...McHale-still-4840981.php?t=7a029e2ef8cba496f0
Is it just me, or did the OP's "Big Test" get buried in a bunch of stats. What exactly is Lin's Big Test this year based on the article? To improve? I don't know if I can call the first 20 games a big test for Lin when I'm staring at Dwight Howard needing an article about his first 20 games being a bigger test of our starters For Lin, just be aggressive and you'll be fine in my book. Oh and keep up the 3 pt shooting of last two months So how about that article on Howard's big test
OP's argument is based on full year stats, but he doesn't note the first sixteens or so were terrible due to recovering from knee surgery. That being said at the end of the day it's entirely possible Lin is better as a sixth man for this roster.
Lin will start a season, he is the best point guard to feed Howard the ball consistently, Beverley will just give the ball to harden every play, Howard won't like that
Be honest, what pg on the rockets current team is going to be able to find Howard and other players like this in floor? http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ORfImHV...=ORfImHVP3dc
Another great Cluthfans article. Keep them coming boys! Bev Or Lin? This is what we call one of them good problems. Don't care who starts. As long as some combination of Lin/Harden and Dwight/Asik are on the floor at all times, we will be deadly. Any 2nd unit featuring Asik and Bev/Lin will be among the best in the league. And our 2nd unit is what killed us last year, not Lin, not the 4 but the giant Asik-sized hole in our 2nd unit, which luckily we can fill with Omer this year!
Lin in the "Manu" role sort of intrigues me. With Lin and Asik the Rockets could field a "second" team with some serious talent. Might be perfect. On the other hand, as another poster pointed out, Beverly is not "proven" as a starter. Will be interesting how Cannon and Brooks fit into the mix. We are entering the most intriguing season since 1995.
Wouldn't 8 min of Harden + Howard + 10 min of Harden + Lin + Howard + 8 min of Harden + Asik + 10 min of Lin + Howard + 6 min of Harden + Lin + Asik + 6 min of Harden + Lin + Asik + Howard (works out to be Harden 38 min, Lin 32 min, Howard 34 min, Asik 20 min; and we have at least one of Harden or Howard on the floor at all times) devastate every team out there?
GBRocket's article is good and well-researched, but I think it misses the mark in a few areas. Several of the points I was going to make have already been made by AVoiceInTheCrowd and BBAAB, among others, and made well. First and foremost, to me, is that the knee injury suffered by Lin is not mentioned. Lin clearly was not himself at the beginning of the year, and was not close to what he was athletically in New York during much of the season last year. Here's McHale at the start of the regular season last year: http://nyti.ms/1dKBk4r Well, the "only now getting healthy" apparently lasted into early March 2013, when it was being said here on ClutchFans that reports were just coming out saying Lin had only now got his leg strength/knee strength back to 100%. I was going to bring up Russell Westbrook and his recovery, but BBAAB already did that. I would imagine Westbrook may find some struggles along the lines of those Lin suffered last year. Talking about Lin's 2012-13 season, to me, without mentioning his knee recovery is like talking about Dwight Howard in 2012-13 and failing to discuss his back and shoulder labrum concerns. You can do it, but it might not give an accurate assessment of the player. The problem for Lin is that, unlike Westbrook and Howard, he didn't have any other positive history to fall back on before the New York time. And, many seemed willing to accept that the New York run was just a fluke. Thus, if Lin was struggling with his knee early in the year -- and that seemed clear to me he was -- it could easily be dismissed as "well, he just never was very good." Which didn't happen to Howard last year and likely won't happen to Westbrook this year if his knee slows him. We will know more about Lin this season and beyond, provided he stays healthy. Torn menisci are serious injuries, and affect players differently. Chris Paul suffered one in the 2009-10 season and his play suffered significantly during that year (he suffered the injury in late January of 2010 and returned to play in late March) and for almost the entire 2010-11 season before he started to return to his true form. To help understand how much Paul's play suffered from the knee injury, here are his PER's for the season before the injury, the season of the injury, the season after the injury, and two seasons after the injury 2008-09 PER = 30.0 2009-10 PER = 23.7 2010-11 PER = 23.7 2011-12 PER = 27.0 In that comparison, Lin's 2012-13 would be Paul's 2010-11. * AVoiceInTheCrowd pointed out the issue with the ORTG and DRTG data. If this is seen as a primary factor, then it would appear that James Harden (+2.7 Net ORTG - DRTG) should have been playing less after the acquisition of James Anderson (+9.6 Net ORTG - DRTG) last year, and it appears as though Ronnie Brewer (+3.1 Net ORTG - DRTG) could be in a position to take Harden's spot. Of course, no one believes Brewer or Anderson is better than Harden. But these are the kinds of apparent contradictions one can run up against when relying heavily on data and possibly overlooking context. * This line rung a bell for me because I discussed something similar here the other day: Which reminded me of what I had said the other day in regards to a comment about how Lin supposedly could not be a part of a championship-level squad: http://bit.ly/1fFBnQV The "only two All-Stars" seemed a bit overstated to me. Not only are Harden and Howard presumed All-Stars, they also can be looked at as the best players in the NBA at their positions. I don't think anyone believes a healthy Howard is not the best center in the game, and with 35-year-old Kobe coming back from a torn Achilles and Dwyane Wade struggling to stay healthy, I question Harden being worse than either of those two players. But, I wanted to look into the "only two All-Stars" comment a bit more. Using the framework from the above quoted post I made the other day, I went back and looked at the last 5 Finals to see how many All-Stars each finalist had. 2009 Finals = Lakers (2 All-Stars) beat Magic (3 All-Stars) 2010 Finals = Lakers (2 All-Stars) beat Celtics (3 All-Stars) 2011 Finals = Mavs (1 All-Stars) beat Heat (3 All-Stars) 2012 Finals = Heat (3 All-Stars) beat Thunder (2 All-Stars) 2013 Finals = Heat (3 All-Stars) beat Spurs (2 All-Stars) Now, we will recall that the Spurs were one made Kawhi Leonard or Manu Ginobili made free throw from winning The 2013 Finals in Game 6. Thus, of the last 5 NBA Champions, nearly four of them had "only two All-Stars" or fewer. Additionally, of the last 5 Finals, nearly four of the losers had 3 All-Stars, or more All-Stars than the team they lost to. Thus, it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world to have "only two All-Stars." And, you can be "serious about contention" without having three All-Stars and while only having two All-Stars. That doesn't mean you don't want your best lineups playing and you don't want as many stars as you can have playing, but I thought the case was overstated, similar to how I thought some writers were overstating the "gotta have 3 stars" case when a potential deal for LaMarcus Aldridge was being discussed a few weeks ago. That analysis just doesn't hold up based upon recent NBA Championship history. * Finally, at least for this post, this part of the article struck me as unclear: I'm not sure I can agree with that assessment based upon this evidence: NBA.com team page picture featuring this photo or a similar one as an intro: (4 Rockets featured -- Howard, Harden, Parsons, Lin) http://on.nba.com/16AZvwe Rockets billboards (4 Rockets featured -- Howard, Harden, Parsons, Lin) http://bit.ly/1bHh5X9 * There's more I could say, but I don't want this post to be a novel. In short, I think GBRocket's article is very good and is extremely well-researched, but I don't necessarily agree with some of what it is saying. Still, it is a serious attempt at a discussion of the point guard situation. And for that, I'm very grateful for his having done the research work and written it.
Seriously, It would be a real shame for Lin to be a manu type. The driving scoring element of Lin is only one facet of offensive, I can't wait to see Howard unlock the other door. For me that's my favorite dimension to Lin's offensive, when he meshes with big. Quite a sight to behold. It's bound to happen. Alot of people are bound for a surprise.
"Lin is the true point guard and better passer among the two starting guards, while Harden is a much better scorer, whether it's through driving to the paint or shooting from the outside. There's no reason to waste away Lin's talents just so Harden can take on another responsibility. Having to feed Howard in the paint should bring back the ball into Lin's hand, or at least more than it was last season." http://sportige.com/houston-rockets-dwight-howard-jeremy-lin-will-be-difficult-to-stop-2013-09/. Remember the Hawks game at the beginning of the season and the Thunders game at the middle of the season ? LIN: 29 PTS (12-22)(3/5 3P), 8 ast, 6 reb, 2 stl Harden: 46 pts ,8 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl Lin just needs to improve his 3-point shooting and defense . Then he will fit in well with this team.
There are 3 factors to affect Lin's aggressiveness which made his production not stable last season. 1. Return from knee injury. (particularly in Nov) 2. Chemistry with Harden. (need to improve off-ball movement, catch&shoot, etc) 3. Physically exhausted. (Lin played all games in regular season with great run in Feb. and Mar., but decline in April, including 3pt shooting and defense) He has 1 season for reference and a health summer to work out. I don't see why he can't improve. D12 will make Lin's offense better, even better than Amare+Tyson combo in NYK because they have training camp.
Lin has never played the 6th man role nor is he equipped to be an instant scorer off the bench as some people believe. We will be setting him up to fail just so people can be happy he is not starting or because they are "curious" about how Lin would perform in that role that, once again, he has never played before. Didn't we just talk all summer long of how he needs to work on playing off the ball? Isn't that what his training was geared toward? Now, we have him hangs his role again? Who can succeed in such circumstances. Harden is NOT a PG!! He can't do everything and he didn't do that last year either contrary to popular revisionist opinion. He was already overburdened, which showed in the number of isos and turnovers and lack of defensive energy he demonstrated last year. We need a pg to facilitate the offense and feed Howard and have multiple threats out there and until Lin proves incapable or Bev proves more capable, benching Lin or decreasing his minutes should not be even considered. An improved Beverley is still not better than 2nd half of the season Lin, IMO. And it's not even close.
Exactly, that is one of Lin's strength, feeding the big men under the basket, feeding the beast that is Dwight Howard and getting him open looks. That is something Houston needs much much more than 3-point shooting this season. Our offense relied on too many 3-pointers last, not enough points in the paint, that was our undoing.
having howard changes everything. one area i want to mention is in transition. as long as howard runs, lin will find him. this aspect of lin's game was not seen last year with asik but was on display with tyson chandler. now he has dwight. so was the dream's comments just homer hype? or did he get a sneak peek at what's to come? imo lin + howard will be deadly in transition. add in the harden eurostep and running will be key for us. some examples of assists not possible with asik, but a taste of things to come with dwight: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpVLLXHs3K0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9iCatFnuuM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k8u96Sio0c http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-8iymCU7NA
I like Asik. He started to learn offense last year. Lin+Grey Smith is better than Asik in the offensive end, but Smith's D is horrible.
