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[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: The Impact of Harden's Deal

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Dec 11, 2012.

  1. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    I'm really hoping this thread doesn't turn into another Jeremy Lin Debate thread, but I'll answer your question here this once. (In the future, if you just want my opinion on Lin, go ahead and ask in a Lin thread. I search the BBS periodically for people asking me questions.)

    I would be surprised if Lin is not still a Rocket after this season. Still, if we've learned anything from having Daryl Morey as the GM of this team, it's that NO ONE is untouchable. Hell, if Miami was willing to trade Lebron for Harden, you don't think Morey would even trade Harden in a heartbeat?!

    As for Lin's production, I think he'd be putting up much better individual numbers if he were sharing the backcourt with Kevin Martin instead of James Harden. Still, I'd obviously rather have Harden on the team, and I'd rather have Harden handling the pick-and-roll than Lin on most occasions. Unfortunately for Lin (who is a very good pick-and-roll player), Harden is one of the absolute best pick-and-roll players in the world. Lin is not a spot-up shooter but has been relegated to that role on many possessions.

    The Rockets need to probably do a better job at staggering the minutes of those two guys. Maybe bring Tony Douglas in earlier in games. (Some suggesting that Douglas start over Lin--while mostly being knee-jerk in nature or just to stupidly piss off Lin fans--may not be far off from an effective strategy to make Lin better.) I'm not ready to "bench" Lin (even if it might help his numbers), but he's got to have more minutes with the ball in his hands without taking it out of Harden's hands.

    Bottom line: I think the Rockets still view Jeremy Lin as a key piece to the team's future. Still, that won't keep him from being traded if the right deal comes along for an established star player. Lin is a good young player who had a stretch of star-caliber production, but he's not a true star player . . . yet. I certainly hope he gets there, though.
     
  2. Knightrogen

    Knightrogen Member

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    Thank you! I think Jeremy Lin needs to learn more from Chandler Parson. Parson put up good numbers off the ball of Harden and he uses PnR many times on his possessions(based on Parson's film or if anyone is willing to put up one).

    I don't see any reason of letting Lin play more PnR off of Harden's hand even when Harden is on the floor. Many teams are doing it and that will take a lot of ball pressure and double team off of Harden.

    I am not specifically talking to BIMA but Harden is not a super star. We saw the issue when Tmac was here and TMac was the primarily PnR player. But that offense is bashed all over too of being too predictable and stagnant. So back to my point: no reason to have just one primary PnR player, right?
     
  3. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    I personally think you need to be careful because this could very easily open up a Jeremy Lin vs Harden debate, so Im not sure we should go there in this thread, and keep that opinion to the Lin threads that aren't that hard to find.

    My thoughts are that what they are doing on the short term court play of our core young players, have very little short term impact in the front offices decision making. Meaning, just because Lin & Harden aren't coexisting well, doesn't mean they are going to think about trading him. Sure "if the right deal comes along" exists as Bima just mentioned, Morey wouldn't think twice about pulling the trigger, but I just dont see it happening. Nor is any Gm going to give up much at the time to get Lin.

    If however, there was a team that needed to move a star player, and wanted to get back a big name playmaker in return, thats when I could see the Rockets & Lin being a trade option. However, that's probably not going to happen this February. Too few stars on the move, Lin's contract is still very new with lots of money left committed, and his play hasn't been what it probably could be after a few more months playing with this new/young team.
     
  4. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    No, this is not off-topic, and it's an excellent question.

    I'm not sure what the answer is. My initial inclination is yes, Lin/Asik should be able to receive 105% of the third-year payment, since their salaries were artificially limited. The salary those guys received was based on them being paid the max in Year 3 after playing under the limited Arenas Rule salaries in Years 1 and 2.

    I'll see if I can get a answer from Larry on that one.
     
  5. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    Regarding to Lin's struggle, I think there're a few reasons:

    1) The most important one: He's slowly getting back his athleticism. We maybe talking about the similar issue as Patterson last year. I hope he'll improve and at 100% before next season if not earlier.

    2) In preseason, basketball prospectus mentioned that Rockets didn't expect to get Lin, because otherwise they may not get Asik(not good PNR partner). This is half true: I think we'll still get Asik, but he's truely a bad PNR fit.

    3) Like everyone is saying, Harden dominates the ball right now. Harden maybe one of the best passer of the SG's, but he's assit/to ratio(half of Lin's this year) suggest he's an average PG at best and should not assume fulltime PG responsiblity.

    4) In first unit, Parsons also aggressively handles the ball more than last year. He's improving and having promising result, but that further reduces Lin's opportunity. In second unit, both Douglas and Delfino handles the ball in certain situations. This is very different than Newyork last season, when there's nobody can handle the ball half decent other than Lin.

    In the long term, the only thing matters is Lin's athleticism(it's obvious when he can't finish in some easy opportunities). As long as he can regain his full strength, everything else would be temporary issues. In that perspective, Harden's arrival maybe the best thing happen in this circumstance - it takes pressue off Lin and allows him to recover/improve slowly.
     
  6. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    As I said, I kindly ask that we keep (non cap-related) comments about Jeremy Lin to one of the 5,000 Lin threads in the BBS.

    These Cap Update threads have usually been five-star threads, largely because the discussion was focused on the topic at hand, without many tangential discussions detracting from the overall theme of the thread.

    Thanks!
     
  7. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    So, assuming that both Chris Paul and Dwight Howard stay put this summer, and no other "first tier" stars become available, are the Röckëts better off (1) not adding anybody and roll over the cap room for one more year, (2) adding only 1 yr contract guys (Delfino type deal) in order to maintain flexibility, or (3) adding a 2nd tier Josh Smith player as trade chip?

    Also, one issue I see is that all of the Röckëts young cheap assets are PFs and the trade partner may not want a PF (or multiple ones).
     
  8. AggNRox

    AggNRox Member

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    when count how much their salaries are against the rox cap each year, their average salaries are used. could it be the case that 105% raise on their average salaries when resigning them after their contract are expired?
     
  9. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    The answer is clear, to me that is, become a trade partner. Take the stud who 'needs' out because the cap room allows and the 'assets' facilitate the rest of the deal.

    Bima, is there an answer to the trade effects of Lin/Asik's contracts? Because if that is clear and if the unthinkable occurs where Dwight moves off from LAL...
     
  10. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    I think we eventually need to have a conversation about Bynum. If the Rockets doctors check him out, would you consider a two year deal with a third year team option at max dollars? Definitely a high risk, high reward move. Keeps you in the hunt for Kevin Love when he is available, or maybe not depending on what Chandler Parsons price ends up being.

    I don't like the idea of saving cap space because you limit yourself a lot and then what happens the following year when you dont get the guy you want? Wait another year?

    I would pick up the phone and offer the Jazz: Patterson + Lin for MoWill + Milsap and then throw a high dollar but short term deal at Bynum in the offseason. If you were lucky you could field this lineup:

    Williams / Machado
    Harden / ???
    Parsons / ???
    Milsap /Jones /Dmo
    Bynum / Asik / Dmo

    Contender? I am not sure, but it sure would be a heck of a team.
     
  11. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    Probably a combination of (2) & (3), though (3) only makes sense if the price is right.

    Äs for the all our assets are PFs issue I would think the Rockets will try to address that going forward.

    I think they'd be happy to ship Patterson or Morris for a pick or a similar player playing a different position and/or with one more year on his rookie deal.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Jones either. I'm still not totally convinced the Rockets really loved him coming out of college and he just might gather more interest than Patterson or Morris.

    Patterson I think is the most interesting of our PFs to playoff teams, so a market for him might open up with an injury or two down the road. The Clippers and the Odom situation might be something to keep an eye on as well.

    Morris and Jones would appear to make more sense for a rebuilding team. I could see the Cavs or Bobcats have interest for example. Both teams have a multitude of picks in upcoming drafts and PF is a position of need for both teams.

    As for similar talent, playing a different position, I would think at least some of these guys will be available at the deadline: Isaiah Thomas/Jimmer Fredette, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Marshon Brooks, Evan Fournier/Jordan Hamilton, Terrence Ross, Jeff Taylor, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris.
     
  12. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    The max that Lin and Asik could make would not be capped at $8.8 million (which is about 105% of their cap figure in each year of their current deals), since the max for players with 0-6 years of experience is significantly more than that (by 2015, it could be in the $15-16 million range), and Lin and Asik would no longer be subject to the Gilbert Arenas Rule.

    As far as "trade effects" are concerned, any team trading for Lin or Asik would definitely get the same CAP treatment that Houston gets ($8.37 million per year against the cap). As for PAYMENT, I'm not totally sure which team would pay what portion of their 2014-15 salary (although I'd imagine Houston might have to pay the amount by which the prior cap figure exceeded the salary previously paid - just an educated guess, though).

    FYI, when Chandler Parsons hits unrestricted free agency in 2015, his cap hold for the Rockets will be a mere $1,833,025.

    The Rockets can EASILY maneuver around Parsons to utilize available cap room (if any) before re-signing Parsons to a long-term deal.
     
  13. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    No problem, Bima. I just want to comment on the little discussion going on here about Lin.

    Back to the topic, I think Morey did a very good job constructing our team. Your analysis is very insightful as always.
     
  14. Knightrogen

    Knightrogen Member

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    First of all, you made a mistake of changing one of the youngest and most flexible team to a mediocre and high salary team Big Time! Bynum? And Mo Williams? They might just be a boarder-line star and Bynum is a high injury big man. If one wants to build a championship team, we don't need players like that. Think big! Target young players and 2 big time star like Harden. One star or even a super star can't win it alone. Get another star and develop young players for good players.
     
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  15. GanjaRocket

    GanjaRocket Member

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    PAUL MILLSAP


    I think he'd be the perfect complementary piece... dominant on his own at times yet overlooked... but with guys like parsons, harden, and lin he could take the next step.


    thoughts? could he be had this offseason for slightly less than max?
     
    1 person likes this.
  16. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    as much as i like Paul Millsap, i think we need a franchise piece if we are not going to develop the talented bigs we already have, and i just don't see him as that. So i disagree, but i'm gonna rep you because i think your user name is the t***.
     
  17. GanjaRocket

    GanjaRocket Member

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    Haha thanks man.

    I'm curious to see why you see Millsap as less than a franchise piece though..

    He is more than solid on both ends, is only 25 (26 in February)


    For some reason I see him as a perfect fit for this team. He can run or slow it down and play half court. I'd give him the max. But if he can accept less than the max, I say do that 10 times out of 10.
     
  18. GanjaRocket

    GanjaRocket Member

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    correction: he will be 27.
     
  19. lookabove

    lookabove Contributing Member

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    BimaThug,

    If TD actually finish year shooting 3's at 45%, do think Morey extend $3,101,820 qualifying offer? If so, how much cap space do we have left.
     
  20. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    If they made the QO to Douglas and kept all the non-guaranteed guys (Delfino, Smith, Machado), the Rockets would be left with about $8.65 million in cap room.

    Remember, though, if Douglas accepts the QO, he will be a "One-Year Bird" player and could not be traded without his consent next season. I don't think Morey wants to be saddled with that constraint.

    Regardless, I'm not so sure Morey would bring Douglas back at that cap figure, as he does not want to tie up much room in a backup PG. More likely in that event, he'd work with Douglas and his agent on a mutually beneficial sign-and-trade deal, much like they did for Camby in the trade that brought Douglas (and two second rounders and cash) here in the first place.

    It's a risky strategy, since several factors would need to play out before Douglas would go via S&T rather than as a straight up free agent signing; but it just seems to fit more with Morey's current cap philosophy.
     

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