[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: 2015 Offseason Pre-Draft Edition

This. I can see why Detroit ran him out of town. If you are relying on him as a high usage key piece the turnovers and shooting slumps would be infuriating. But off the bench or in tandem minutes the good outweighs the bad.

That being said he hasn't shown anything to me that would make me think some team will offer him starter money. He's got the Pistons money, he's playing for a contender with his bff, and loves it so far. No doubt in my mind he signs up for that $2.5 million.

This all looks to be set up nicely. Llull for the MLE, one of Jones/DMO and Papa, Prigs maybe # 18 as well for an upgrade at guard, resign Smith and Brewer, and it's likely Bev and KJ walk for more money.

 

Knicks and la. For like 5 per. Why? Because these teams dont have anything on the roster. And before someone says randle randle is rookie and will probably get traded in the next 2 seasons. The knicks will habe 11.5 mil to fill the pf sg and pg positions after they max monroe. Good wings like caroll will get 10 per. Millsap will be too expensive. Smith fits the triangle and can make the team better than it is riht now so they can perhaps hypnotise a big name free agent next season to join them.

 

I think you guys are overlooking the fact that KJ will be a RFA, so as long as we offer the QO of $1.05 M (which we will), we CAN resign him IF we are willing to pay the salary he commands on the open market.

As a second rounder who is extended a qualifying offer, he is subject to the Gilbert Arenas rule just like Jeremy Lin and Asik before him. What that means is we can go over the cap to retain him as long as we are matching someone else's offer. Offers to him by other teams cannot be higher than the MLE for the first year, BUT subsequent years can have really high raises. This is essentially the Poison Pill contract we used to pry Lin and Asik away in 2012.

KJ is 22 with about half a season of decent, but not great ball under his belt. We pretty much glued him to the bench during his time here. I think on the open market he can MAYBE command $5M/season type of deal. I think a deal like that is a no-brainer to match. He projects to me as a better defending version of Brewer with the potential to continue improving his shot.

Now, we would still be subject to the potential tax hit in years 2 and 3, BUT with the cap going up that potential luxury tax hit should be minimal.

In my mind, the ideal off season would be the following:

1) Package TJ/Pap/#18 to move up in draft OR get a guard like Collison/Lawson/Lowry
2) Bring Llull over
3) If we don't draft or trade for a PG resign Bev otherwise cooperate in a Sign & Trade if we can.
4) Resign Brewer anywhere under $5M per
5) Match KJ
6) Resign Smoove

Our rotation now looks like:

Llull/Bev
Harden/#Lotto pick/NJ
Ariza/Brewer/KJ
Dmo/Smoove
Dwight/Capela/Dorsey

or

Lawson/Llull
Harden/NJ
Ariza/Brewer/KJ
Dmo/Smoove
Dwight/Capela/Dorsey

Having multiple guys with salaries in the $5M-$10M range will be key to helping us snag a roster upgrade at the deadline should one become available. I'm excited about bringing Llull and retaining KJ because we can go back to finishing in transition as opposed to launching ugly threes early in the shot clock.

 

Got it. Thanks for the correction. I guess keeping KJ really is a super-long shot then. Too bad, I really liked what I saw from his time in Philly.

 

THANKS for the article!

So, by my read, it's either retain JSmith OR bring over Lull....
I can see Josh giving us a sweetheart deal - but anything below the mle (or at least a good chunk) would just be stupid on his part.... I have to believe he can easily command 10M/yr+ on the open market...even with Detroit money, it would just be silly to leave that much on the table (even if its not a dollar for dollar amount, due to Detroit money...) or Lull is gonna require that portion of the mle...

Brewer I can see us spending the money on (since I presume he's gonna be 'over the cap $' that's only gonna really matter to Les' wallet... and I don't see him getting an offer for substantially more than we can offer.... same with Terry...

So it's all about moving the poopoo platter (TJones/KPap/Prigs/Dorsey/picks) for a pg....

Personally, I would like to see us include the Lull rights in the pg trade (if needed) and retain Smith (D12 chemistry is too great)...

 

Question here:

In light of the significant cap increase for 2016-17 and knowing that a large number of this year's free agent class will want to take advantage of much higher salary possibilities in 2016 by signing 1+1 deals this summer, do you think Silver and the league office is going to do anything about guys signing these 1+1 deals and then forcing their team to trade them after Dec. 15th by telling their team they are walking away?

Basically what these guys have the opportunity to do is visit all the teams in free agency, find out where they want to go, then instead of giving up the difference in $$$ between a max contract this summer vs. next summer, they can get their current team to agree to a 1+1 year deal, ala Lebron and Kevin Love, and then they can force their teams to trade them after Dec. 15th to the team of their choosing or walk away for nothing.

It's definitely an unusual situation prompted by the huge salary cap increase in 2016.


Consider LaMarcus for example:
If the cap goes up to $66.5 million this summer, he is still a 9-year veteran. That means the max offer Portland can give him is 5 years at approximately $107.65 million. That also mean the most a different team can offer LaMarcus is 4 years and $79. If they left him opt-out after 3 and tack on another 2 years with 7.5% raises at the new cap figures (who knows what that'll be) then he'll garner around 5/$124+ million.

But if LaMarcus signs a 1+1 deal this summer and plays for $18.62 million this next season, then re-signs a 4-year deal next summer with his home team (with the cap estimated at $90 million) then that total 5 years runs up to around $147 million. Not to mention if he can squeeze his home team for another year (5-year deal instead of 4) and tack on another $50 million on the last year of that deal.

Now LaMarcus is a slightly special case because he is a 9-year vet this summer and will be a 10-year vet next summer. Which is why I for sure believe he's gonna sign a 1+1 deal.

For guys like Gasol and Love who are 7-year vets and will only be 8-year vets after next season the numbers might not be so gargantuan as LaMarcus' but they are still a huge difference.

A 5-year deal for each of them this summer from their home team with Birds rights based on the same $66.5 cap will be the same figure as LaMarcus' number, around 5/$107.65 million.

However if they sign a 1+1 and then opt out and sign a fresh 5-year deal next year and the cap goes up to around $90 million, then their deals will be for 5/$144.9 + $18.62 million (total 6/$163.52) or 4/$112 million plus $18.62 million (total 5/$130+ million) Not to mention having a player opt out and a re-up, which staggers then numbers even more.

I can see a lot of free agents passing on long-term deals this summer in favor of hitting the jackpot next summer. And that will create a unique free agent/trade market.

Case in point:
LaMarcus decides he wants to move to one of the Texas teams. He can't sign a one-year deal and be traded immediately. He has to sign a 3-year deal to be signed and traded. So, he goes back to Portland and tells them he'll sign a 1+1 deal and then they can trade him after Dec 15th because he wants to go to the Spurs or whoever. Portland decides to take him up on the deal, a totally uncomfortable situation for everybody involved, and move him after Dec. 15th to the highest bidder (which is most likely going to be the team he wants to go to). Or perhaps they just play out the string with LaMarcus and he has to walk to the Spurs or whomever in 2016?

Any way you look at it, it's a unique situation. And a situation where a player and a team COULD sign a contract with both sides knowing they are going to trade said player as soon as he becomes trade eligible.

So my question is..in lieu of this type of situation possibly developing will Adam Silver and the NBA office step in and make special rulings concerning these 1+1 contracts not being trade-able, etc?????



The reason I ask this is if Silver decides to pre-empt this situation by making it public knowledge that the league offices are going to reject those trades after Dec. 15th because they view it as circumvention or "not in the best interest of the NBA" then that would definitely effect what players and teams did this summer in the free agent/trade markets. Including us.

 

why would Silver step in? If it happens it will be only three guys who do it. And I don't think Gasol will even do that. So basically two.
He didn't change the hack because it is mostly against 3-4 players and it affects the viewers why change the rules arbitrarily now for at most two people?
It's against the cba to oppose such trades , and both the owners and the players should abide by it. The commisioner can't intervene without a reason. What is the reason here?

 

Wasn't there something about a player option for Dwight? Can he accept a new contract before the salary cap increase so that we are put into a better position for signing a better cast?

 

The reason could POSSIBLY be that it isn't in the best interest of basketball for a team and a player to agree to a 1+1 contract with a future in-season trade already agreed to. In fact, I am of the opinion that such an agreement would be circumventing the CBA.

But....the proof that such an agreement exists between the player and the 2 teams may be difficult to prove. Soooooooooooooo...that's why I'm wondering if Silver will come out and tell all these teams and players up front that if they sign 1+1 deals that he's not going to allow trades to go through for them after Dec. 15th.

Because....I most definitely think this idea is in play at this time.

 

Bima,

Any chance that all the Lull talk is basically a way to increase his trade (rights) value? If the Rockets believe they have a shot of trading picks/llull rights/papa/nj (or some combination thereof) for Lawson/Lowry, thereby leaving the MLE available to sign Smoove & KJ, then they can operate over the cap to match any offer for Bev and resign Brewer, right?

That would basically keep this season's team intact with the addition of a solid PG.

Lawson/Lowry, Bev
Harden, KJ, Terry
Ariza, Brewer
DMo, Smith, Jones
Howard, Capela

As excited as I would be about seeing Lull come over, I think Smith creates mismatches against many PF and I would hate to lose that from our bench, especially if we can make a trade for a starting caliber PG without losing an important piece in Smith, plus the potential of KJ.

OTOH, perhaps the Rockets can both bring over Llull and also convince Smoove to take a 1 yr deal with the promise that we'll make up for it next off-season or something... and could it be that the Rockets already decided that KJ isn't worth more than the 1 mil QO we can offer after seeing him up close and personal?


BTW, thanks for all that you bring to this forum.

 

I didn't want to make a whole new thread for this but:

Does the cap jump happen the offseason that Durant becomes a FA? If so, what moves would we need to make in order to have enough room to offer him a contract he'd consider?

 

When Josh Smith signed with the Rockets I hope his converation with Daryl Morey went something like...

DM: Josh, we would love for youi to come play for us. I think your skill set would be a great fit to our team.

JS: I was thinking the same, and you have one of my buds there.

DM: Only problem is we cant pay you very much.

JS: No worries, Everything points to Rockets being hte right fixt for me. Detroit will pick up my tip money and Dwight tells me I will love Htown. How about I sign a two year deal and become a free agent in time for the big bonanza.

DM: Sounds great. Hey listen, it's not much but if instead of two years if we structure it as one plus an option, I can slide you an extra 10% the second year.

JS: Cool! Where doI sign.

 

Yes, the cap does jump when Durant becomes a free agent. This was covered in the first three pages of this thread topic; read below...

 

Does anyone know what the Rockets paid last year to Minnesota for the 53rd pick when they drafted Alessandro Gentile? Trying to figure out what kind of pick the $800,000 will get this year. Got to think it is something similar, 50s.

 

Thanks man, appreciate it!

 

I don't think the league can make special rules surrounding the cap that haven't been collectively bargained.

 

"Presumably"? D'ya think? The last 4 guys on the Rockets bench get either Lawson or Lowry?

 

He just organized a trade proposal by breaking it down into two individual parts:
1. We have the ability to match the salary of a mid-tier point guard
2. We have goodies like the NOP and NY picks to include in a trade

No need to be a smart ass about it