[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: 2015 Offseason Pre-Draft Edition

Okay, here's a question:

If we hold Bev's full bird rights, we can go over the cap to resign him (matching a reasonable offer), and we'd still have our MLE, right? So why couldn't we resign Bev and use our MLE on Llull (assuming Bev would be okay with being part of a rotation)? A Llull/Bev PG rotation would be really solid. We retain Bev's defense and chemistry, and add Llull's offense.


Thanks.

 

Brewer we can resign with Bird rights and go over the cap.

No mle

 

and can we only go over the cap to sign one player? or can we do it for both Bev and Brew since we hold both of their bird rights? That should be a T-shirt btw: "Bev and Brew"

 

I'm not exactly sure how that works. I think only one, because once we sign one guy we'll be over the cap.

 

If we're likely to lose KJ McDaniels unless we use the MLE on him (which is unlikely), what was the point of that trade? Just insurance in case Ariza/Brewer leave, or was there some other factor?

 

Well, besides insurance, he's a much better player than Canaan.

If we somehow end up trading Ariza or Brewer in a blockbuster, it would be nice to have KJ.

 

while that would be good depth in the backcourt, using the MLE on llull would mean the best offer we could make to smith would be $2.5M, and the best offer to KJ would be $1M.

KJ will get a bigger offer elsewhere just for his potential alone, and he'll go for the highest offer since he hasn't gotten paid yet. he signed a 1 year contract as a rookie in order to get paid quicker. so using the MLE on llull means he's gone.

losing KJ also means that there is no backup plan if we lose brewer to a larger offer. the idea is to keep one of them. the most the rockets can offer brewer is $8.23M. he wont command that much, but i would assume that he gets a few MLE offers. since he wants to return, and he's worth the equivalent of MLE money (around $5.5M) i think we can keep him and lose KJ to a larger offer than we are allowed to make.

the big key about using the MLE on llull is that the offer for josh smith changes. if we have the MLE, we can offer the whole thing to josh, if we use it on llull we can only offer josh $2.5M. i know he wants to return, but he will receive MLE offers (maybe even higher offers) based on his play in the playoffs. we will have to give him a competitive offer if we want him to stay. i highly doubt we retain him for $2.5M.

so the choice becomes llull or josh, theoretically. while its possible to have both, its unlikely josh accepts the $2.5M... and any offer larger than that amount will have to be from the MLE.

so maybe we are able to match a decent offer to beverley... with beverley already on board, would you still use the MLE on llull or josh? well we don't have a backup PG, and we do have jones and dmo at the 4, so you can't go wrong with llull... except josh is a pretty decent stretch 4, the best 3&D PF we can get for the MLE and it allows jones to be part of a package for lowry/lawson, etc...

so the difference in the roster might look like:

dwight-capela-dorsey
dmo-jones-#18
ariza-brewer-papa
harden-terry-johnson
beverley-llull-prigs

VS

dwight-capela-dorsey
dmo-josh-jones
ariza-brewer-papa
harden-terry-johnson
beverley-prigs-#18

without making any trades, i would agree with you that the first roster is better "as-is." but i think the second roster allows jones to be part of a trade package with papa, prigs, and #18 for a PG upgrade (lawson?), while the first roster would have to use that package for a PF upgrade (faried?). its really a matter of preference and what actions happen first to set the dominos in motion one way or the other.

my preference is to get a deal done for a top PG first because its our biggest need. if we do that using the package (jones/papa/prigs/18), it becomes important to resign josh or be VERY thin at PF, so i wouldn't then use the MLE on llull, but rather on josh.

now if i started the summer giving llull the MLE so he could replace beverley if he walks, or be his backup if he stays... well the roster looks good if beverley stays... but lets say he walks... you spend the MLE on llull to be the starter, can't resign josh... and go into the season with llull/prigs and dmo/jones ... our 2weakest positions got worse.

 

Even if ariza or brewer are traded if equal salary comes back (in a blockbuster it would) as long as Llull comes Kj cant be matched.
its between llull and kj (and smith) . One mle for three players.
Bima said that it was to keep options open. Canaan and more importantly the denver second are wasted now. For me it didnt make sense then and it doesnt make sense now. Its a move of a rebuilding team with capspace not a capped out contending team. The second round this year has many good players to stash.

 

Yea, Josh Smith, will likely WANT to stay but I can't blame him for leaving if a team comes with an offer that's 3x what we're offering.

Sure, we can match an offersheet but I doubt we spend a significant amount of the MLE on him. It seems likely we'll attempt to bring over llul this year and even if we didn't we'd probably end up using the money to retain Smith. I really meant that KJ has no incentive to take a discount to be on a team that he may not be in the rotation for.

 

Excellent post.
Smith will get offers and I can think of some that will gladly offer him mle money.
timing is everything here. If llull delays to answer all three could get away. Thats why by the draft the Rockets must have an answer.
imo the priorities should be llull . If no trade is made the mle is paid on llull fully and bev is matched for around 5 per at least at 18# there are a couple pfs that can be drafted . Much better to have rookies pf than rookies pgs in your rotation.

 

I see Morey using Papa and Prigs non garantee contracts to take a bad contract (Stevenson?) and move up in the draft or get a future pick.

 

Lance contract is only 8 per and expires. (Eto). You can take a future protected pick with salary dumps or a very late one. But for worse contracts than these and contracts that are much longer. I think in this year the likely candidates for this are splitter lee and wallace. Maybe Young.

 

Bird rights are exceptions to the cap, meaning you can theoretically go over the cap as much as you want. So it would absolutely be possible to re-sign both Beverley and Brewer with Bird rights.
The Rockets would have to stay below $85.6 million in total salary if they sign Llull with the non-taxpayer MLE (as explained in the article)—that shouldn't be too difficult though. However, if the Rockets get over the Tax Level ($76.829 million), they can't acquire as much salary in trades which limits their flexibility, especially in smaller trades.

 

I guess I'd rather have Llull than Smoove. But I take your point about trading for a pg.

 

thanks. So assuming they get reasonable offers, we're likely to exceed the cap to sign Brewer and Bev. It sounds like it's KJ or Llull, no way for both. And assuming $2.5 mil isn't enough to keep Smoove, it sounds like it's Smoove or Llull (and it sounds like Llull is coming).

So the most realistic scenario (given that making a trade is hard and not in our control): we exceed the cap to sign Bev and Brew, and we use the MLE on Llull; and let KJ and Smoove walk. Agree?

 

I agree in general. However. Many here believe that Smith will take the 2.5 1+1 with an understanding that he will be resigned next year for much more and longer. (Which will mean that he wont be a trade asset and Morrey wont trade him). I dont believe he would take 2.5 per if someone gives him MLE money but we will see. The big free agents and the draft will determine a lot. If NY and LA get Love or LMA or Gasol that will likely take them out for the market for Smith.
I also wouldnt match anything over 5 per for Bev. After that point his contract gets negative value amd gets hard to move.

But KJ is a goner in any case. Teams wont wait until the end of free agency to sign him like they will likely do with Smith and Bev.

 

i just don't think Morey would commit long-term to Smith like that, just to get him back on the roster next year. That presumably would hamstring our flexibility quite a bit for next year's offseason. I don't think Smith is a guy you build around; i don't think he's a crucial part of our core.

 

maybe im in the minority here, but i dont mind kj backing up ariza instead of brewer if need be...

that is to say, a trade lawson comes up for pap, jones, and something else, i dont mind getting kj over brewer imo

 

Trade T Jones for Mason Plumlee and get
Rid of Dorsey by any means necessary

 

I don't see why Smith would leave, because I honestly don't see what team offers him a contract. He doesn't fit the system of many teams. I'm sure Smith will also take less money to play on a contender than more money and play with a losing squad.