[ClutchFans] Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: 2015 Offseason Pre-Draft Edition

Sorry but no. 8 mil for Bev is an overpay no matter how you spin it. It will be a bad contract even with the cap rise but not a terrible one. Even with the cap rise Beverly remains extremely limited player at the deepest position in the league. And injury prone. Why would anyone trade for his contract when they are better off taking an undrafted player themselves and try him out for free.

And the comparison to Bradley shouldnt exist no matter what Bevs agents want to claim. Bradley is a young 3 and D wing. Thats why he got what he got and thats why the celtics refused to trade him for a mid first. Bev is just a defensive guard who cant playmake and with mediocre shooting. Pgs are a dime a dozen. Wings are one of the most depleted positions in the league.
Giving such a contract to Bev would be an incredible stupid and desperate move by Morrey.
not a penny over 5 imo.

 

I'm not sure Beverley or Llull would be happy as back ups. Bev isn't good enough to have that starting job locked up and Llull is good enough to take it early in the season. They'd be a nice PG combination, but i'm not sure that's what either wants going into next year.

 

The only thing you left out is PatBev either staying or going .... and if he goes its an asset lost for nothing along with the dollar figure over the cap & no way to replace it.
You can keep PatBev , all the teams other FA's (Brewer , Terry , Smith , KJ) , retain the MLE for use on Llull (or someone else) and two draft choices .... Keeping PatBev only affects future seasons cap situations and you can always move him if need be. Even if he's paid ~$8m a year he's a movable commodity and could be used to facilitate a future larger trade.

 

The team has two issues to resolve. First, what to do with the talent logjam in the post (Howard, Motiejunas, Smith, Capela, and Jones) because each one deserves ample playing time. Second, how and with whom to beef up the PG position.

 

Assuming Smith stays, just gotta trade 1 player, then it's 2 deep at 4/5.

 

as always Bima, thanks. love the attention to detail and thorough knowledge.

 

Agreed but I can't see Llull coming over after all these years to be a backup or Bev happy as a backup after being a starter, 2nd team all defense etc.

 

If Bev and JSmoove walk, do we have the money to bring in Llull and still keep KJ?

 

I feel most confident that the rockets will re-sign Terry to an at or near minimum deal and that KJ will be gone. There's no incentive for KJ to stay when he's not likely to see court time without injuries and other teams will offer much more money. The only way I see this changing is if we trade Ariza and/or Brewer, opening up a spot for him in the lineup.

I also see Brewer as a virtual lock to be either re-signed or traded. The rockets won't lose his value for nothing. My guess is that he's resigned to ~$7-8MM, which sounds like a lot for a bench player but in 2 years it will look like an average contract.

I'm most unsure about J-smoove and Beverley. I think Smith genuinely would love to stay in Houston but everyone knows he'll get offers better than $2.5MM and I can't really blame him for taking one. Also, I love Beverley, but he may be the one player on the team that's a little overrated. I think odds are pretty high one of, if not both, are gone next season.

 

Bev doesn't matter for KJ/Llull/Smith because he's got Larry Bird rights, so we can sign him over the cap without using the MLE. Those 3 guys are vying for that MLE money though, so we will likely only keep one of them using MLE; and, we have to hope Smith accepts the Non-Bird exception (~2.5 million; might happen..) and KJ accepts the QO (not likely).

 

That last part is assuming Llull gets most of the MLE, which is expected if we are able to sign him

 

can we offer KJ the non-bird exception?

 

KMc saying what he did, where he did, how he did sounds to me like a recruiting plea to let SL know how much he is valued in TheToyShop.

And yes, I assume Llull 'heard' this.

 

KJ and SL are linked by the need to use the MLE.

 

I agree, I think KJ McDaniels is out, which is why I don't understand the purpose of trading for him in the first place. Bev probably gets a contract bigger than he's worth- and if we do indeed have Llull coming over (which I'm skeptical of) than he'll be gone too. I disagree on Smoove, though. I think this is the only team he's truly been happy on. He gets a lot of freedom from the coach (which he won't get on most contenders), he gets to play with his childhood friend Dwight, and he's still raking in money from being amnestied. Plus, I doubt many rebuilding teams will try to sign him. He's got a small market for his demands.

 

The incentive for him to stay is that he can't leave if we match his contract offer.

 

delete post

 

Beverley is not going to come cheap because he is officially the Most Skilled Player in the NBA according to the Allstar Weekend competition.

 

Bima,

I see your scenarios as a lot of "one or the other", rather than being able to keep everyone. morey has set himself up with a lot of great backup plans incase our players get better offers elsewhere. for example:

1) beverley or llull - If we choose NOT to match an offer for beverley, we will use the MLE on llull to replace him as starter. I don't see a scenario where we match an offer for beverley and spend more money on his backup.

2) brewer or KJ - same as above, if brewer gets a rich offer elsewhere, we can dip into MLE money to make a better offer for KJ. if we resign brew to a reasonable contract, it is unlikely that we use MLE money to resign KJ as well.

3) smith or jones - if the MLE hasn't been used on llull or KJ (meaning we were able to retain both beverley and brewer, we could offer the whole MLE to josh which would make it way more likely for him to stay. however if (and most likely in beverley's case) we lose a FA and have to use the MLE to replace them, the offer to josh will be so little than someone will top it. if that's the case, we will probably peek jones as dmo's backup. if we are able to retain josh, jones becomes trade bait.

conclusion:
IMO, the best the rockets can do this summer is to immediately make a trade for lawson. denver wants 2 first round picks, give them #18 and #32 (close enough), with jones/papa/prigs. get it done early so we know we can let bev walk and save the MLE from being used on llull. resign brewer so we don't have to use the MLE on KJ... brewer won't command the same money as ariza ($8M), but may receive some MLE offers. i think any offer equal to the MLE offers he will receive will be enough to keep him here. finally, i think we offer the MLE to josh. he will get a couple of MLE offers due to his playoff performance. we will have to at least match those. its really important to resign him because there is no other stretch 4 who can rebound and defend like him available this summer for the MLE.

to round out the roster i'd look at some veteran guys who might take the minimum: terry, brooks, mo williams, scola, prince, reggie evans, etc...

i could realistically see our opening day roster next year as:

dwight-capela-dorsey
dmo-smith
ariza-brewer-prince
harden-terry
lawson-brooks-johnson