[ClutchFans] Hey, Remember when Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik were on the Rockets?

i thought expiring contracts is what certain teams want? so it shouldn't be that hard right...

 

If you can help a team clear cap by taking longer contracts back than yeah... they are a great trade asset.

If you are the team trying to clear cap its sort of counter-intuitive.

 

As a Asik fan, I'd like to see him get to a different team where he can play with a coaching staff that backs him. As for the Rockets, they might want to think twice before letting both players go. In the playoffs, it was Lin and Asik that made it possible for Houston to have a chance to win that series. Houston leaned on the very two guys whom they had demoted to reserve roles. They'd be better off moving the coaching staff.

 

LOL,
It's not like the Rockets are getting rid of Robert Horry and Sam Cassell.

 

The stretch provision would not clear nearly $15M. If you add the cap hits for Asik and Lin it would clear only about $11M in salary cap, but then you would lose the accompanying roster holds, so really $10-10.5M.

Can only stretch for 2x the years left + one, so for a player with 1 year remaining it would be 3 years. $8.375M for each, spread over 3 years, not 5.

 

Someone mentioned this in the initial thread on Woj's Parsons option article:

The interesting questions are who gave the info to Woj (and Jonathan Feigen) and what their motivations are in giving out this info almost a full month before a decision has to be made.

It could be Dan Fegan, Parsons' agent, giving out the info to trump up a market for Parsons. But Fegan has to get his info from a Rockets team source, too. And the question is then why did the Rockets tell Dan Fegan this? They could have just said "Sorry Dan, we are still looking at the marker and won't decide until close to June 30."

So, I am guessing that HOU wanted the info out there. If they didn't, the info wouldn't be leaked. For what purpose?

Perhaps to see whether they start hearing about competing Parsons contract offers so they can make a better informed decision come June 30.

Perhaps to give player agents and current teams of upcoming free agents a heads up that the Rockets look, as Clutch and several of us concluded, confidence in their ability to create cap room-- so that they'd keep the Rockets in mind as a potential big $ free agent destination despite their lack of current cap room.

They want this kind of discussions out there.

 

What the earliest a trade can happen?

 

When Damian Lillard made the shot to end the series.

However, the trade market doesn't usually heat up until close to draft day. And in this case, I am not expecting a trade to happen until when the team actually gets the commitment from a free agent, likely sometime close to the end of the moratorium for transactions in July.

 

Technically after a team is eliminated from the playoffs, but there are rules on trading free agents and whatnot that keep teams from doing them until draft night (or the days leading up to it) at the earliest.

Most trades start that week before. There really isn't a point in announcing a trade right now, and its probably frowned upon to take away from the NBA Finals.

 

I'm assuming you're referring to the GS and Denver TPE's. I think those expire July 10th which was the first day after the moratorium when trades could actually be done.

But this is interesting to me. Which exception and which player do you think is doable here?

As much as GS represents a market fit for Lin...I simply can't see them taking him on with that exception....and paying him $15 million to backup Curry. While simultaneously helping us get a third superstar.


Denver??? I dunno.



What are you seeing/feeling here?

 

Iggy cost GSW two #1's and two #2's to dump $24 mil is salary. How much will Melo or whomever cost us to dump $16+ mil cap($30 mil actual salary)?

 

Yes it is.

 

For me, the million dollar question is: how much of this plan will we see unfold on draft night? Will Asik/Lin be dealt along with our pick for cap space that night? Or possibly a "star" under contract (Love or someone we haven't thought of)? Or will the Rockets simply use the pick to maximize talent for trade bait, by either taking a player that has the most intriguing upside, regardless of roster fit (like the donte green pick, when he blew up in summer league and was subsequently traded for Artest) or trade back a few spots several times and pick up several assets along the way (like virtually every other draft, but particularly the Batum draft)? Or will Houston take a player guaranteed to remain in Europe for at least a season to preserve cap space?

Or will they simply take the best player available at their spot and reveal nothing?

I think we can all agree that last option is the least likely, but you never know.

 

I've done the numbers.

We can clear 15 million.

 

Different scenario but relevant.

1. Asik has trade value. We can move Asik and get a draft pick back.

2. That leaves Lin and his $15 million.

$15 million is 60% of $24 million. The two picks GS traded are this year's pick which is #23 plus a first rounder unprotected in 2017 (most likely in the 20's but unprotected nonetheless) and second rounders in 2016 and 2017.

So what's 60% of that pick value? Well.......probably #25 and one future first rounder unprotected in 2017.

That's why I keep saying I think we can move Lin for #25 and our 2017 pick unprotected.

And I feel that we can get either #9, #10, or #11 for Asik. Don't know why I feel that way but I do. However, the Hawks are at #14 so let's assume all we can get for Asik is #14.

We then trade #14 for a future pick in the #10-#20 range (Lowry style protection). That's roughly an even swap of picks. We should be able to trade Lin with Asik and #25 and a swap of picks in 2017 to a team like Philly.

But let's say that we can't get a pick for Asik at all. And that Lin costs us #25 and the 2017 pick unprotected.

So, that defines your trade package for Melo. However....if Melo wants to come here and we know we can move out Lin for #25, and the 2017 pick unprotected and we can move out Asik for nothing...then we have no reason to give the Knicks all that for Melo. They'll have to accept less than that in a sign-and-trade or we will just liquify everybody, sign Melo outright and keep the picks we get for DMo/Jones, etc. So, the Knicks have to accept Asik/Lin/#25 and that's it for Melo or we'll go a different route. Better yet, the Knicks get Lin, #25, and the 2017 pick unprotected, and we get the Asik pick and flip it for a pick(s) in the future.


But using the GS/Utah model for value we should be able to move Lin for at most #25, 2017 unprotected pick, and cash.



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This is why I'm very interested in what Sacramento does. IF Sacramento wants Lin for Derrick Williams then Williams' contract is going to be even easier and require less assets to pedal away. Or if GS is willing to use the TPE in Lin for #25...that's a homerun.

Or if Milwaukee is willing to trade Ilyasova for Lin straight up...Ilyasova may be a player that is more attractive to Minny to replace Love than holding onto Lin.

Or perhaps Orlando will take Lin for Jameer Nelson's contract. In that case Jameer is only owed $2 million for 2014. We should be able to pedal that away very easily.

This is why I started the Lin speculation thread. If we can move Lin out for nothing more than #25, cash, and a second rounder or two, we've hit a home run.

 

I personally think:

1. Asik's dealt before or on draft night to Philly. The Sixers have worked out PJ Hairston and Kyle Anderson, who are projected to be available around our 25th pick. Asik + #25 to Philly for cap room sounds very plausible.
That reduces $8.4 million from the team cap.

2. Lin and either Jones or DMo will be moved to Charlotte after the draft for capspace. Depending on what happens in the draft (do they draft a 4 or 5?) and whether or not McRoberts comes back, I think Charlotte wouldn't mind getting back Jones or DMo to insert into their rotation. With Ridnour leaving and Gary Neal not really a point guard, having Lin backing up Kemba Walker (or forming their own small ball backcourt) wouldn't be all that bad. Plus, Lin + Jones or DMo gets them slightly over the cap and that sets them up with the option to use the MLE. If the Hornets play their cards right, the remaining $8 million owed to Lin that doesn't count against the cap could be offset by their payout from luxury tax payers.
This reduces about $10 million from the team cap.

3. This gives the Rockets about $19 million in cap room between June 26th and June 30th which puts the ball in Carmelo's court as to whether he wants to exercise his player option or opt out for a lower salary of about $20 million a year.

 

Lin, even with his faults and inconsistencies and balloon payment, still has more value than either Biedrins or Jefferson had last year.

 

Did you watch that Portland series. Sure Asik was valuable in keeping LMA in check but Lin was just dreadful.

 

After that, trade Lin and the extra pick to clear cap space, which still allows the Rockets to keep their own pick. Is that plausible?

 

I doubt any team will give up a #10 pick in a deep draft(I think it was you comment in your other thread) for a year rental of Asik @ $15 mil. He has only played more than 1000 minutes once in his four NBA seasons. Morey overpaid Asik just like he overpaid Lin.

It funny how people here think he's a top 5 center. Howard, Noah, Gasol, Gasol, BLopez, Sanders, Jefferson, Chandler, Drummond, Cousins, Jordan. Some might argue that Hibbert, Pekovic, Bogut, Spilitter, Gortat and even RLopez are better overall players than Asik. Even rookie Gorgui Dieng had 20 rebounds against Asik twice.