[ClutchFans] For Rockets, pushing Parsons to early free agency suddenly makes sense

But how he's doing on 2k is the real question.

On the one hand, you want to pay him as little as possible.

On the other hand, you want him to worth as much as possible.

Can't win!

 

Name the team that is so poorly ran that they will offer Parson the max.

You are overstating how many "stupid" front offices there are out there. What you said used to be true. But in the last few years a lot of teams have gotten a lot smarter about how they pass out contracts. Just look at the proliferation of analytics type front office gurus that happened just this off-season. Philly, Orlando, Dallas...they're getting much wiser about how they pass out contracts. Sacramento just passed to new owners. They're not going to be pulling the same stupid personnel moves they have in times past. That's why I'm challenging you to name the team that will give Parsons a max deal. I mentioned one possibility...Dallas. I could see Cuban doing it just to pull talent away from us. BUT....I doubt he does it. It's too risky for him. He's going after much bigger fish than Parsons this off season.

That's why I'm asking you to name the team. Here's the current list of teams with max cap space in 2014. Which one of these guys is going to offer Parsons the max?

ATL - max (they could CP. are they going to give him the max?)
CHAR - max (new wave GM, losing money, trying to lose and win the lottery, will they pay CP max??? Come on now.)
CLE - max (they're holding out hope for Lebron, if they miss out on Lebron are they going to offer CP max? Nope)
DAL - max (going after much bigger fish than CP)
DET - max (if they keep Monroe, they'll only have about $10 mill to offer CP)
LAL - max (they're going after 2 true max free agents. no max for CP here)
MIL - max (they could use CP)
N.O. - max (they've got Gordon, Evans, and Jrue all making big money on the perimeter. are they going to spring another $15 million per on CP? I seriously doubt it.)
ORL - Max (their GM is another new-wave techie, no max for CP here)
PHI - Max (their GM is a Moreyite, he's not gonna offer CP the max)
PHX - max (this team is running on empty and worried about making a profit. Do you really think they're gonna offer max to Chandler?)
Sac - max (this team has new ownership and new front office. Nope)
SAS - max (only if they drop Parker or Duncan retires)
TOR - max (only of Gay opts out...not likely)
UTA - max (will most likely use their cap space to take on dead money and pick up draft picks just like they did this yr with GS)
WAS - max (but they just drafted Porter with their lottery pick)

So, exactly who is the team "dumb" enough to offer Parsons the max?

 

Have to disagree with your premises here.

1. Parsons is not unique because 2nd round picks routinely get paid like crap because they routinely fail to succeed in the NBA. He signed a deal that was similar to 2nd round picks before him and after him(Cannan signed a 3-yr deal at a lower value despite being picked higher just this last season).

2. If he's in his prime, then his market value would not change between next offseason and 2015 offseason. Hence the whole RFA market, where his value would theoretically be depressed, would not even factor into the situation.

3. This actually is a pointless observation. Whether the Rockets have capspace in 2014 makes no difference. Parsons cap hold is at $1+ mil in 2014 regardless of team-option status. He's not going to eat capspace next offseason. But if becomes RFA, he'll eat capspace in 2015. And in 2015, unless Morey takes on a major long term salary, the Rockets WILL have near-max capspace.

Not sure why you care about future 2nd rounder negotiations. They have no leverage. Never had, never will. And the day a FA rookie will take a lesser deal with the Rockets because of what they did for a former 2nd round pick is never. They'll always play for basically the highest bidder with highest chance of playing time.

The ONLY, ONLY benefit for making Parsons a RFA is to make Dan Fegan happy. I'm cool with that if there really were shady stuffs going on to make Howard-to-Houston possible. Nothing else matters.

 

Charlotte and Washington don't qualify as dumb enough?

I'm not saying CP25 will get the max or even Batum/Tyreke money myself, but I'm just saying I wouldn't bet against NBA GM stupidity.

 

chandler is 90% happy with his current contract and his RAPM, Win shares true shooting all improved. however his decision making without the ball took a step back and his corner three did slide a tad which could be attributed to teams paying more attention to him and "denying the ball". i have put Chandler in Rebounding training to turn him into a complete stretch four as he struggled out musing the likes of boozer, faired on the block.

 

1. Parsons is unique because he is a second rounder that has performed like a top 10 lottery pick. There's simply not too many of those guys. Go back and look at his draft class. He probably should have been drafted #5 to #7.

2. If he plays out his deal, he could be soured on the team because Morey could have paid him in the 14 offseason. If he plays out his deal through 2015 he can walk on us. We don't control him if he plays through 2015. He is an unrestricted free agent.

3. The point is if he is "overpaid" after next season...it's not going to make a difference as we will be over the cap. IF we get another max player it is going to be through trade most likely. And IF we sign a max player it will be this coming off season. Waiting around on Lin and Asik's contracts to expire along with Parsons deal in 2015 is NOT the way to go. The HUGE free agent pool is this coming off season. The only guy we will be waiting for in 2015 that would be worth having the cap space to sign outright is Love and Aldridge. Do you think the TWolves and Blazers are going to take a chance on either of those guys walking on them in 2015?? Better think again. They'll either trade them b4 2015 comes around or they will have the player agreed to re-sign a max deal.

The only other intrigue about 2015 free agency is if Lebron does not opt out this summer. That's it. By the end of 2015 Bosh will be 31 years old. We probably won't want him on a fresh 4-yr deal at that point. IF perchance Lebron does not opt out after this season (very small chance) then there could possibly be intrigue in 2015 free agency.


You have to understand the dynamics in play here. We have 2 primo superstars and a great supporting cast now. The overwhelming odds are that if there is another superstar acquired, it will be through trade. Very specifically Portland and Minny with LaMarcus and Love. If either team gets wind that these guys aren't re-signing when their contracts end in 2015..you can bet they are gonna trade them...and the sooner the better...because if they go into 14/15 with these players playing out their contracts then all of a sudden the trade market for those guys disappears. The only trades that will bring back any kind of value to the teams will be if they are to teams that the players want to go to.

The odds overwhelmingly favor us trading for that third superstar if we indeed acquire that superstar and the odds of striking out on acquiring a free agent with cap space are much too high to take the risk on that strategy in 2015. The best position to be in would be to be able to "ride the fence" between being under or over the cap like we have been doing the last couple seasons. But that is going to be much difficult to do and still retain Parsons going forward.

 

Very interesting. Maybe not directly, but you've peaked my interest about the possibility of picking up Parsons option for 2014/15 to make a run in the Summer of 2015 at a max, or near max free agent.

I never thought about the ability the Rockets have in 2015, but when thinking about how small Parson's cap hold is, its actually a real possibility.

However, the only things to think about at this point first would be....

-what happens with Asik & Lin first these next two seasons, and if they are traded before their contracts expire and their rights are presumably renounced, would they most likely be bringing back long term salary, or a large expiring salary??
-Do D-Mo & Jones make enough improvement to secure a long term role with the team?
-What happens with the 2015/15 qualifying offer of Patrick Beverley?

Maybe the Summer of 2015 is a reason why the Rockets are singing the tune of keeping Asik & Lin for now. Maybe they think the best move would be to ride it out for 2 years with these two, and have a big name in mind to bring in the fold in 2015.

(notable 2015 free agents- Rondo, Aldridge, & possibly Love (if he waives his player option))

 

Actually, if Parsons starts most of the Rockets' games this season (as he is expected to do), then his cap hold in 2014 as a restricted free agent will most likely be about $3.27 million.

Read more about that here: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8005258&postcount=73

Regardless, the amount of Parsons's cap hold in 2014 will likely be irrelevant for purposes of 2014 cap room.

REALLY?!?!?!

I've been talking about this since the first version of my Parsons Contract Analysis article back in December of last year! It was reiterated in the corrected piece in April.

dobro, it pains me to know that you don't read my work!

 

Charlotte just gave Al Jefferson a pretty large three-year deal. That's dumb. MJ is a lousy owner.

Cleveland just used the first overall pick on Anthony Bennett and gave a fair amount of money to Jarrett Jack. They're dumb.

Detroit gave Josh Smith a ton of money and we know aboit Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva. Dumb.

The Lakers have godawful ownership post-Jerry Buss and their offseason moves were horrific. They are a laughing stock and top tier guys don't want to play with Kobe. They are beyond dumb.

Milwaukee, god knows what they're doing. Same GM who gave Drew Gooden over $30 mil pretty recently.

Phoenix's owner is an idiot. $18 mil to Michael Beasley. Channing Frye, Luis Scola... what? Dumb.

Washington recently traded Rashard Lewis' big expiring contract for $20+ mil worth of Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. Incredibly dumb.

And these are just the dumb teams that have cap space.

 

haha.... yeah I guess you only read or hear what you want to hear.

I think I've just always leaned towards the side of getting Parsons locked up in 2014 because the market supply will be much heavier which should in theory lead to the Rockets getting a better team-friendly contract.... again.. in theory (assuming the ETO free agents actually become free agents).

But now my interest is peaked in the possibility of other directions the team could plan for. However, I am in the stance that its going to be very hard for Morey not to find a trade that makes sense long before the summer of 2015 comes around. Still, if that deal never comes along, its good to know that there is definitely a path they could take that could ensure them the ability to make a run at yet another star player.

 

But you are assuming that the top tier guys are guys who are actually going to sign with new teams. The vast majority of top tier guys stay put because their teams can offer them a lot more money than anybody else. There are exceptions (Dwight Howard) but these are rare.

What happens, in practice, and I mean it happens every single year, is that after the top tier guys all re-sign, the list of available free agents suddenly doesn't look so great, and the teams with cap space (the poorly managed ones, and most are poorly managed) spend their money on the other guys. Guys like Chandler Parsons.

If someone wants to list off all 2014 free agents then we can identify which guys are highly likely to re-sign, which gives us the list of free agents who are ACTUALLY obtainable. Parsons is probably near the top of this revised list if/when he is allowed to become a RFA next summer. Thus, I expect him to receive an absurd offer sheet from somebody out there, which is why I keep suggesting that selling high (for a 2014 lottery pick, AFTER the season) might be the smart move by Houston.

 

Is Washington going to offer Parsons the max when they just drafted Otto Porter to be their 3? Oh...they might be that dumb. I guess you have a point there. But realistically....unless Porter is a total flop/bust...why would they blow a bunch of money on Parsons??? They would have to be stupid....beyond dumb.

Phoenix is losing money (or so they claim). Are they going to shell out $66 million for Parsons? Yes, they could be considered dumb. But they are an obvious lottery team this season. They're trying to lose games and get Wiggins or Randle or one of the other big stars in this draft. Do you really think they are going to rebuild in one off-season and overpay Parsons the max???? Me.....nope. Could they overpay and give him 4/$50?? That would be stupid for them to do too since they are most likely still going to be lottery bound after one season. No other superstar is going to sign there this off-season. They're not a superstar target because they have no superstar. So, they're on the verge or over the edge of profitability, they will be coming off a lottery season...and they're gonna shell out $50 million for Parsons?? Yes, they are dumb. But they ain't that dumb.

Milwaukee is another small-market team struggling to stay above water. Yes, they may be dumb. Dumb enough to give Parsons $50 million. But a max deal to an obvious non-max player? Do you really think they are that dumb? I don't. Economics is going to guide their decisions mostly.

Lakers??? - - Yes, I agree, Jim Buss is dumb. He's the one responsible for Dwight being a Rocket..no doubt about that. But dude...hes' not going to tie up their cap by giving Parsons a max contract. He.is.not.that.dumb. Sorry.

Detroit - JSmoove, Drummond, and Monroe all in the front-court. Monroe hitting restricted free agency and fixing to get around $50 million. They'll either have to match, let him walk, or trade him b4 the trade deadline. Yes, they are dumb enough to offer Parsons 4/$50. No, they are not dumb enough to offer Parsons $66 million.

Cleveland - they are holding cap space open to lure back Lebron. If they get him...they're out of the Parsons sweepstakes. If they don't get Lebron...they may come after Parsons. Are they going to offer Parsons $66 million?? After losing out on Lebron at $85 million?? Possibly. But not probable. I agree they have messed up on their contracts and have made some poor choices. The Jack signing is a mystery to me. But Parsons at the max??

Parsons is going to play out this season at best the 3rd offensive option and most likely the 4th or 5th offensive option. His stat line is most likely going to look something like this 13/5/3 on shooting percentages of around 47/38/78. The only way those numbers inflate significantly is if Harden or Howard goes down with a significant injury.

And here's the next thing. There is just as great a possibility that someone pays him the max in 2015 as there is that someone pays him the max in 2014. Except we don't have a chance to match and we don't have the opportunity to trade him for value.

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There is a better way to play 2015 free agency for a max contract guy than to face the possibility of losing Parsons for nothing. And that is you give him a front-loaded deal like I described above. As long as we don't add any other long-term salary...then we will have Howard, Harden, and Parson on the books for 2015. Assuming the cap goes up to $62 million next year and stays at that level for 2015 that gives us around $10 million of cap space if we simply clear everybody off the books. Not enough obviously to sign that 3rd guy unless we dump Parsons.....but we control Parsons and if we give him some sort of front-loaded deal like I described above, he will be tradeable. And therefore we could "clear" the space we needed to bring in another max guy.

However, it won't be necessary. Remember...it's the threat of a guy walking for nothing that causes teams to break down and trade them.

So the way to play 2015 free agency is by acquiring non-guaranteed contracts, contracts like Andrew Bynum's junk deal, deals like Keith Bogan's deal. There'll be more of those style deals done this next off-season...paying a player that really it not worth it a contract that is guaranteed for the first season and then non-guaranteed the next. We've still got our Room MLE to add a guy like that this season. Plus next season we can give Garcia a nice big deal that is guaranteed for next season and non-guaranteed for 2015. You accumulate around $15-18 million of non-guaranteed salary for 2015. And then you hit the 2015 market. You can cut everybody, trade Parsons, and sign your guy if he's there. OR....you can engineer a trade using draft picks...young talent....and non-guaranteed deals. Guys this is the most likely path. It's the way Morey does things. Look for one or both of Lin/Asik to be converted to as much draft pick value as possible between now and then and ending contracts or contracts that can be extended non-guaranteed into 2015. I would almost bank on Morey negotiating a big fat contract with Parsons by 2014 free agency with a front end signing bonus and 7.5% decreases with some sort of funky guarantee dates that basically guarantee the whole package as soon as the 2015 offseason is completed.

 

Notice that I said.... IN THEORY.... ASSUMING the big fish exercise their ETO. I'd hope people are smart enough to realize that means there is a possibility (since its just a theory) that it does not happen and Melo, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, etc. all stay put, and the market then has teams like Dallas, LA, etc. spending their money on 2nd tier free agents.... like Granger, Deng, and Parsons.

If Parsons is competing in the market vs. Melo, Lebron, & co. I would think that this would drive his contract price down quite a bit given the supply.

If Parsons toughest competition on the open market is Granger, and Deng, he will almost certainly be offered much more.

Basic supply and demand economics.

I've stated my opinion too earlier. I think quite the opposite. Unless the Rockets are going All-In on putting their chips on the table for the 2015 free agency, and want the max cap room to sign another all-star, The Rockets can afford to overpay to keep Parsons if for some reason a team throws (at worst) the max(Parsons is allowed to receive).

As long as Les is willing to go about 3 to 4 million over the luxury tax in year one (which in their first year will NOT have a repeat offender tax), over-paying to keep assuming their 3rd best player after next season is very doable. The collateral damage the Rockets will assuming they are taking is to then look to move one of Asik or Lin to have flexibility with bringing in other roll players and complementary players in 2015.

However, if Morey feels like keeping Lin AND Asik past 2015 is even more important than the services Parsons brings on and off the court, then that's when you start thinking about moving him for flexibility in 2015.

I personally doubt that is the case.... IMO.

So here is an interesting debate question to that point -

Do we think Morey would project a higher drop off in OVERALL team production (wins) if Parsons was replaced by a minimum salary player like Casspi or Garcia full time, or if Asik's backup 5 minutes were replaced by a veteran center like Camby and a Greg Smith type???

I guess we will have to wait and see who serves a greater importance this season with the core star players now in place.

 

But Parsons will not actually be competing with the top tier guys because they will all re-sign, most likely. In which case he's competing with second tier guys. The ETO guys will all likely opt out but then re-sign, by the way.

And I completely disagree that Morey suddenly abandons his approach that has gotten him this far and begins overpaying for talent. There is more value in the #10 pick in a stacked draft than in Parsons at $12 mil/year. I again point to the Kwahi Leonard-George Hill trade.

You always want to have guys signed to attractive, reasonable contracts, because this gives you cap flexibility, it allows you to easily move pieces around. Parsons at $12+ mil/year is a cap killer. He's good but he's not that good.

Look at the precedents. The Budinger trade. The Lowry trade. Lots of reasons to believe Morey will swap Parsons for a draft pick if he's not able to re-sign him fow what he considers to be the right price. And look at how many idiotic teams will have the cap space to offer this dude a lot more money than Morey thinks he's worth.

 

When did I EVER say it was likely that these top tier guys leave??? All I ever mentioned was IF in theory....

However, I do think it is likely that teams will set themselves up financially to be able to pursue these guys. IF for some reason Miami breaks up the big 3 after a disappointing season, or something else crazy happens, its going to dry up the market for 2nd tier free agents like Parsons.

There are lots of IF's that I am adding to the equation here. Dont make it sound like I'm assuring ANYTHING about the 2014 free agency.

When Morey made any of those moves, were the Rockets ever in this situation where they have a young title contending core group locked up for 3 to 5 years??? Even when the Rockets had Yao, they were still preparing themselves financially for the ability to rebuild if for some reason Yao wasn't able to come back. As soon as Yao went down the last time, the trade frenzy began.

Also, whose to say that Parsons wont be worth 10 to 12 million a year on the open Market in a year from now? Your assumption is that there is a team out there that will make a "dumb move" and significantly over-pay for subpar talent.... but just maybe its not just a dumb Maloof type offering that much... maybe that really is the market for Parsons.

And actually Morey has over-paid 2 player in the past year based on what their assumed value was. Jeremy Lin was signed to an offer sheet that NOBODY in the NBA offered him, and then later on Morey changed the offer sheet to make sure the Knicks didnt match.

That is the definition of over-paying to get a certain player that you feel you need.

Then there was James Harden. Sure Harden is surely worth what he is getting paid and some now, but what 6th man in the league would have been valued that much as a free agent, AND what the team had to give up in trade to get that player on top of that amount??

The Rockets absolutely over-paid the assumed price to get a player like Harden, but they over-paid the price because of the risk they felt like they needed to take to get a player that had the potential to be "the guy".

That risk certainly paid off just as it might be worth paying if for some reason Morey has to "over-pay" to keep Parsons if they believe he is worth it. Morey just has to do his homework first to make sure that he's making the right risky signing.

 

There is a difference between conventional wisdom vs. Morey's valuation of players. When the Harden trade was made, it looked like a coup to me instantly, and the $ he got also seemed reasonable. If Morey's analysis/evaluation was the same as everybody else's than the Rockets wouldn't be in the excellent position they're in.

He also viewed the deals for Lin and Asik as good values, and so did I. Asik's 2012-13 season wasn't a surprise to Morey. Lin is a different story, as he was a disappointment. He's THE only guy on the entire roster who fails to provide excellent bang for one's buck. Everybody else provides surplus value. It's the surplus value that makes these guys such valuable assets. And Lin isn't even necessarily overpaid, either. That contract is alright. The point is that it doesn't provide surplus value which means that it's not particularly valuable, as an asset. Which brings me to my original point, which is that Parsons at $12 mil/year isn't a particularly valuable asset, either.

 

Whose to say that conventional wisdom wont tell Morey (or you... even though you wont say so since it doesn't suit your argument) that in 2015/16 Parsons wont be well worth paying a couple extra million dollars in lux tax because of the importance he has in contenting??? When your a contending team, you have to weigh everything.

What good will a future late lottery 1st round pick that you could get for Parsons be in 2015-2017 really??? What 7 to 10 pick range young players really would be in a place to contribute MORE than Parsons in year 1, or 2??? If that pick would immediately be flipped to get an all-star player that's one thing... but whose to say the Rockets really need another star player to win a championship in the first place?

Look at the Heat as example. They didn't need Bosh to be a superstar to win a title... they needed him to be really good at playing the role they needed him to play to make their core stars Lebron/Wade that much better. Parsons is that kind of player who might not be the best SF in the league, but he might be the SF that Howard, Harden, and Lin need.

Back a few years ago, the OKC Thunder paid Nick Collison way more than a team like Houston (at the time) would have paid him. That's because they placed higher value on him due to the fit, and importance he had to that team contending the next few years.

Parsons will probably be just as important to the Rockets, if not more than Collison was and is to the Thunder. Despite the lux tax Les might have to pay for one year, him and Morey might deem it as a pretty low trade-off for the opportunity to compete for championships instead of depleting the team of a major piece to get financial flexibility for future moves that might never happen.

 

Both Houston and other teams are allowed to offer him a declining scale deal. The most that a salary can decline or increase by each year is 4.5% for other teams, and 7.5% for teams holding bird rights (poison pills and Gilbert Arenas notwithstanding).

 

Please stop spreading misinformation about the CBA. Signing bonuses are paid cash up front, but they are structured to average out the cap hit from the signing bonus throughout the guaranteed years of the contract so you would NOT have a lower backend salary as a result of a signing bonus.

The ability to structure a declining scale salary is independent of whether you have a signing bonus or not. Nor can the use of a signing bonus amplify that scale decline since total yearly compensation is still bound by the 4.5%/7.5% annual limit.

Both of your proposed contracts are illegal under the CBA.

The drop off between the last guaranteed year and the unguaranteed year is too high. Even with 7.5% bird rights parameters, to accommodate a drop off of about $3M would require a $40M base salary for the 1st year!

The signing bonus is applied to the guaranteed years only, and the percentage salary decline allowable is calculated using the base year salary in the 1st year without signing bonuses. HOWEVER, the percentage salary decline/increase limit (once calculated) is applied to BOTH the base salary AND the total salary (base+signing bonus) for each year. So the base salary from year to year needs to abide by the limit. AND the total salary (base+signing bonus) from year to year has to abide by the same limit.

Thus, the $3M drop off in total annual salary would be illegal. Larry Coon's FAQ specifically warns that certain combinations of signing bonus and non-guaranteed salary structures are disallowed due to this principle.

 

I'm curious how you got the 7.005 million a year number. I can only think of 2 starters not in their rookie contract who made less than 7 million last year. That being Mario Chalmers (not really a pg) and Raymond Felton (showed up extremely overweight the year before and played like crap, so his price went down considerably).

Also, there is Kyle Lowry. But he signed his contract while he was coming off the bench, so doesn't reflect what a starter normally gets paid.