[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

you also have to make it better than what every other team is offering.

 

Sometimes you have to give a little to get a little.

I am sure the Rocket would want to make the deal with nonrotational players. ... just as I am sure that Toronto would want to make the deal with Yao.

 

I disagree.

Your proposed sign-and-trade, from Toronto's perspective, essentially has them paying $14.3M next year in order to get those two first rounders (one of whom was already drafted by another team and doesn't necessarily fit the Raptors' specific needs). No team in the league would pay that much for a late lottery pick and a future pick that may or may not be a lottery pick.

Remember, if Toronto lets Bosh walk for nothing, they don't have to replace that salary on their books.

Frankly, if I was Bryan Colangelo, I'd want no part of your proposed deal.

That said, I see what you're saying. The Rockets don't have to throw in Kevin Martin or Aaron Brooks to get a deal done, necessarily. Picks might be all that Toronto WANTS out of the deal. But the fact is, salaries MUST also be included, and Toronto doesn't want to pay that much in salaries on top of the picks.

There's no way in hell that Morey trades Kevin Martin in any sign-and-trade scenario. Period.

If that was Morey's plan all along, he would have been better off keeping Carl Landry, who would be a better fit for what Toronto would then need. They already have Demar DeRozan and Hedo Turkoglu at the wing positions. They would need a legit PF.

 

If the Rockets make the trade ... and ... Yao is healthy, the scoring options for the starters are:

1. Yao
2. Bosh
3. Martin
4. Brooks

Sharing the ball will be a problem, albeit a nice problem to have. I posit that the Rockets don't need 4 x 20 point scorers. Of course, given Yao and Martin's injury history, the Rockets might only be fielding 3 of the above per game on average.

I would rather the Rockets keep Martin, but Bosh is the better player. And GMs always do the deal when they get the better player.

 

The wildcard here, if one in fact exists, is that Colangelo Jr would not want Bosh signing with Knicks, Heat, or Bulls. Therefore, if CB4 is absolutely not going to resign with his Raps then it would behoove him to try and effect an SnT west. An outright signing is less likely with Clips or OKC.

But, what would fair recompense be? The draft picks, certainly, are a great start. Scola, maybe. Battier, maybe. Bud, maybe. Maybe having to take back a bad contract like the talented but not working out for the money Calderon.

It seems DM the GM set a framework with the ill-fated Amar'e deal. Framework, at least. What may Junior need; demand? (Again, assuming that Bosh says 'Hell, no' to reupping with Toronto.)

Could there be a third team in addition to Mavs and Rox? Mavs may lust after him but all accounts are that Bosh does not want to play the 5, certainly not more than a few mins/game - and Dirk is not a 5. He's a long 3, maybe, but not a 5.

 

non guaranteed contact or TE + second round picks beats it every time.

To pay $14 million or not to...

 

Assuming Bosh says he wants to come here, we arent competing with other teams offers. We are competing with Torontos sole other option which would be to simply let Bosh walk for nothing.

The question is not what team can beat our offer, its is the asset package we are offering (in my scenario Battier and 2 potential lottery picks) worth one year of expiring contracts? I know Morey knows this and is prepared to lowball them, like he does everyone else LOL

There is no way a rebuilding team would want second round picks as compensation for letting thier star walk. Taking on expiring salary probably wouldnt be a problem as long as they stay under the tax.

 

larsv8, I think you're missing the point. Rather than spend $14.3M on Battier and Jeffries next season, Toronto could just let Bosh walk and instead spend money to buy picks. They could probably get a mid-to-late first round pick for $3M cash.

 

I understand the point, we just disagree on the value of the picks. I certainly dont agree that you can get mid first round picks, possible lottery picks for 3 million. We spent 3 million on second round picks in a weak draft.

 

Actually, the most money that Les spent on any one pick was $2.5M for the #32 pick, which is basically like a first rounder.

I think this year you'll see at least one or two teams sell their picks for cash and "future considerations", especially teams like Chicago or Miami or New Jersey (w/r/t the Mavs' pick that the Nets own), who are trying to maximize their cap room for free agency.

Even if Toronto would have to throw in a future second rounder, it's still better value than paying $14.3M in relative "dead salary" for a year, thus further pushing back any rebuilding process.

(This argument is fairly theoretical, though, since I think Morey would either put together a more financially attractive package for Bosh or recruit a third team to help from a salary cap standpoint. Your point about Houston not needing to bet the farm, though, is well-taken.)

 

I have a different opinion than yours. I believe primarily the ball is in Bosh's court. If he wants to come to Houston than that is more than half the battle. Of course he cannot let Toronto know that's his only choice. But if he really wants to come here and let's say New york is his second choice then he can say, either trade me to Houston or I am going to sign with New York. Which I believe puts us in the game.

Now Toronto has to decide something or nothing. Maybe they would consider or something, nothing but they have already shown interest in Battier and if you hand over Jeffries who can play back up the 4 and 5 plus 3 mil he only cost them 4 mil while their rookie gets experience. (Note a mid first rounder doesn't go for 3 mil it goes for 3 mil and something else, you'll only get a late first rounder for 3 mil straight up. jeffries is better than most late first rounders and he only cost you 4 mil)

I think what makes it more viable and fortunate is we need a big like they do. If we can pick up a solid big with our 2010 lottery pick. Toronto is more inclined to go for the deal especially since they traded away their first pick to Miami in he Oneal deal. The other possibility is Hill or Armstrong have a breakout 2 months and they fall in love with one of them. Cap wise I am not sure how you make it work but certainly a lottery pick this year gives them an opportunity to pick up a big better than most years.

I also disagree with the fact that Martin is untouchable. Toronto doesn't want martin for Bosh but if they did Morey would be an idiot not to do that deal.

There option lose Bosh for nothing or lose bosh for Battier and 2 first rd picks.

Of course theres a lot of holes in this opinion. Like the fact that new York would probably be willing to throw in David Lee or Galinaro to get Bosh or Chicago might even include Noah and those guys don't need any help but the Knicks don't have any picks and Chicago is too close to Canada.

So this is all dependent on how serious Bosh wants to leave Toronto which I think he is pretty serious. And how strong he wants to come to houston which is probably not his number one priority. This is where Morey the Magician comes in.

 

True, but a potential lotto pick is not exactly cheap. You can't exactly buy a lotto pick for nothing. You yourself expect the 2011 Knicks pick to be high if they can't land their free agents.

I still don't think our offer is as attractive as others though.

 

What other teams?

Remember Bosh has to want to go to that team also, so teams like Minny who might offer Al Jefferson for Bosh is a no go, I don't think Bosh would be willing to go.

I suppose the Heat would have a strong offer with Beasley...but they have shown numerous times that they are not willing to give him up so easily.

I have a hard time thinking many teams that would have better offers.

 

The Rockets don't need to include Battier AND Jeffries to get a Bosh sign-and-trade done. I don't think Colangelo would want that much salary coming back, especially if you combine that with the salaries of any younger players also coming over in the trade package.

I think any (two-team) sign-and-trade package from the Rockets would likely start with Shane Battier ($7.43M, and assuming that Toronto would still want him) and Jordan Hill ($2.67M). After that, there are many variations of getting the remaining ~$3.1M in salary that must be included for a Bosh sign-and-trade to work under the salary cap.

For instance, the Rockets' SIGNED 2010 first round pick, if it's the 14th pick, will make up about another $1.82M that would count towards the total. The Rockets must wait 30 days after signing the pick, however, before the trade can be made. As many of you recall, the Ron Artest trade was known for over a week before the Rockets could officially comment on it, because they needed to wait the full 30 days after having signed Donte Greene before being able to trade him to Sacramento.

Another way to fill out the salary (as I alluded to in the article) would be to sign-and-trade Hilton Armstrong. With his lackluster play thus far in his pro career, if the Rockets/Raptors offered him a one-year, $3M deal, Armstrong would probably take it. Perhaps Armstrong would even agree to a second, fully NON-guaranteed year on the deal, possibly making him an attractive trade asset for Toronto to use the following summer (depending on what happens with the CBA). Because Armstrong is making over $2.8M this year, such a deal would not trigger any Base Year Compensation issues.

And, of course, the REAL trade bait would be those New York picks.

Bottom line: There are definitely ways of getting a sign-and-trade done . . . IF (as you said) Bosh wants to come to Houston and puts enough pressure on Toronto's management to deal him. But the Raptors likely won't want to take on one penny more than the minimum salary in return in order to make the trade work under league rules. Hence, Battier AND Jeffries won't be included in the deal together.

 

Correction: The sign-and-trade contract for Armstrong would be for three years, with only the first season guaranteed. As per league rules.

 

Bosh will really want to come to Houston if this is to work out. Money will talk. 15-17 M/yr,possibly a bit more.

 

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/02/23/free.agents/index.html

Some of the players thoughts on the FA if it hasn't been posted.

I guess this means we won't get anyone...but figure if Lebron and Wade stays put. ATL gives Joe Johnson a max contract (I'm guessing SOMEONE will...) and Amar'e heads to Miami or Chicago (or even here...just can't see him in PHX after all that)

That just means NYKs will continue to suck...sounds good to me :grin:

 

To me, it would seem that the likely path Daryl Morey would take is to:

(1) Announce his interest to the max FAs early on in the game, but

(2) Stay patient and opportunistic because pretty much any transaction involving such an FA will have to happen relatively late in the summer.

There are a couple reasons for this:

First, for Morey to successfully force a S&T from the guy's original team, there needs to be a long set-up process because the threat the Morey needs to use against the original team is the player's interest in someone other than the Rockets -- more specifically a team with cap space (like NY, NJ, Clips, etc.). So, whoever Morey gets (if any, that is) will have to make the rounds first with the teams with cap space, express sincere interest in (a) signing with one (or maybe even two) of these and (b) alternatively, get traded to Houston, and convince the original team that he's serious gonna considering taking the offer from one of the teams with cap space. The whole song and dance will take a while. And Morey will probably lose out as the FA decide to simply stay with the orginial team, or become convinced one of those teams with cap space is a better situation for him-- like Morey says, there are more buyers for these FAs than there are these valuable FAs.

Second, one of Morey's most important trade chips is the 2011 pick, which will be the higher between NY's and Houston's. The thing that will make this pick valuable is NY's failure to sign any big name FA. So, what has to happen for the chip to gain value is for practically all but 1 (or 2, but in a situation where if NY isn't getting both guys to join, neither of them will) of the big name FAs to have settled down with a team other than NY, and that the FA's original team team, preferably an Eastern Team that hates NY for trying to pilfer their asset, is left with the choice between losing the player to a team with cap space (it would be best for us if that team is the Knicks) or trading the player to Houston for the NY 2011 pick.

In any case, the stars will have to line up correctly.

 

Not sure if this is the right thread, when can a team do a sign & trade, is after the team's season is over, or do you have to wait till after the finals are played in June. I know free agency starts July 1st, and you can sign officially on July 11th, just wondered about a sign & trade. Thanks in advance

 

If a team is under the cap...say Minnesota...can we trade them say David Andersen and one of the knicks picks for the rights to Ricky Rubio or something to that affect? We would still have a young, valuable asset (Rubio) and shed salary at the same time. Seems like a good idea...