[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

I don't think we'll get Bosh.

I say there is a 50/50 shot he stays in Toronto, first of all they have had a pretty good season. If the playoffs ended today they'd go against ATL, ATL would be favored but I wouldn't count out the Raps.

Now, if he does decide that he wants to move from Toronto, he'll be going to a place where he can star...but at the same time the guy wants to win. IF Bosh decides to leave the Raps I do think they will S&T him...but as Bima has pointed out it will be difficult.

If we have to send a minimum of 13million back. This undoubtedly would include Shane, he is right now pretty expendable for this team with Ariza and Budinger.

But now we need another contract with Shane...Scola comes to mind but he's going to have to be on our books. So the next person is Jeffries...

So Jeffries and Shane, but that is uneven. All Toronto gets back is 2 expirings...I'm betting we would include one of our picks (hell maybe both for Bosh) and maybe the 2011 pick from NYK...which could be very valuable...but we still need to send a talent back, in which I think we throw in Aaron Brooks.

So, Brooks+Battier+Jeffries+Draft picks for Bosh.

Idk if that would work...I think it is more likely we try for Amare. Amare has a big mouth, and I can imagine him flat out going to the media and saying "I'm done here..."

 

Daryl is that you? Why did you choose a name like Bima Thug? Why not MoreyMoney, or Dealing Daryl, or DMGM? Anyway, thanks for being on the board and we will follow your deals with interest.

Seriously, amazing article. Not being a numbers guy, I went to sleep half way through, but the mention of Bosh brought me around.

 

Sounds like we are between a rock and a hard place. Hope its produces a diamond.

 

Great article Bima,

As soon as the trade was announced I posted that I was anticipating your cap review. You definitely didn't disappoint. Despite us being in cap hell next season, don't we have a ton of expirings and thus can "blow it up" and even have room to sign a max player (like Durant) in 2011 with Cook, Anderson, Hayes, Battier, Jefferies, and Armstrong coming off the books (and Yao potentially taking a paycut).

I'm not sure but off the top of my head I think we are only committed to Martin, Ariza, Hill, and Budinger past next season all of whom are on reasonable contracts for their talent levels (though I'm sure Lowry/Scola will be re-upped this year and Brooks/Yao will be next year).

 

I just discovered ClutchFans and this is the first article I've read (got to the end as well). I am absolutely amazed at the quality of writing and depth of thought put into in this. This site is awesome. Fantastic article.

 

I wish I could rep Bima for this thread, but I've already repped him elsewhere.

Lots of really great info there for the casual and not so casual fan. I was wondering about all the people we have to resign/take the option on for next season. Morey admitting that with this trade they knew next season was going to be over the tax line pretty much clued me in to the idea that a) chuck's contract was less likely to be picked up b) signing anyone out right was not likely to happen and c) other teams can really push the limit on the value for Kyle and Scola.

seeing everything laid out so clearly makes the whole situation much more clear... and the economic issues facing the league that much more glaring an issue for ALL the team, not just the Rockets

Thanks for taking the time to write this up for us!

 

who cares about bosh.

one guy: MANU GINOBILI

then trade shane to whatever team that wants him for a big man and we're set for a championship.

MLE for 4 years will do it.

 

Great stuff, Bima. You literally covered every angle imaginable here. It's nice to see all this information organized so clearly and eloquently. One point I hadn't thought of is LA's potential motivation to pay the luxury tax given that more teams appear less willing to go over that threshold thus resulting in LT revenues dropping considerably. So much for the days of the Knicks and their $500,000,000M payrolls feeding into the pockets of all the non-tax-paying owners.

Just a few points:

-Needless to say, I'm very pleased with Morey's apparent enthusiasm to keep both Scola and Lowry. Both are pretty much no-brainer type moves at this point.

-This was probably mentioned already but IIRC the lengthy and drawn out contract negotiations between us and Landry from 2008 were a direct result of the skepticism regarding the status of Carl's knee and not due to any issues Morey may or may not have been having with closing the deal, playing his cards or either side bluffing. It just seemed like a matter of, "Show us the knee is okay and you'll get your contract" and before we knew it the Bobcats were doing us a favor by offering him a contract we would easily match. In any event, I could be wrong but I don't anticipate this 'waiting game' to be an issue with Scola or Lowry's contract negotiations this summer.

-As mentioned, it makes little sense for us to exercise the team option on the Chuckwagon. You hate to see such a lovable guy and total workhorse get somewhat low-balled, but you simply can't pay a fringe rotational player what essentially amounts to the $4.66M figure that Bima estimated. Not with the type of logjams up front that we figure to have. Given his limitations as a player he's not likely to draw much interest so one has to think we'll have all the leverage in contract negotiations.

-As for the MLE/LLE, my interest in adding anybody depends upon how the draft plays out and if we're able to keep all of our current guys. If we draft a big as expected, I would definitely like to see us fill out our roster with a veteran third PG. Somebody like Steve Blake or Chris Duhon would be nice.

 

Baker wasn't shy going to the media. That was one of his first moves. Re: Scola, Morey's said he has a good relationship with Luis's people. We haven't heard from them going public with anything yet.

 

They better keep Hayes even if they need to drop his contract to do it.

If Yao goes down I have zero faith in Andersen.

 

Outstanding article, BT. Repped.

 

Like another poster stated, the rockets need to get very,very, lucky with the draft picks. They need to draft a brandon roy type of guy that can come in and produce immedately.

 

Great Story David

 

Great article and BimaThug knows his stuff. So kudos for all that. BUT...

In a nutshell...this is rebuilding/retooling 5.0? Draft picks? What ifs? Maybes? Hopefullys? Could bes? Should bes?

1.0 Barkley, Drexler, Olajuwon
2.0 Barkley, Pippen, Olajuwon
3.0 Francis, Mobley, ISO
4.0 Yao and Tracy
5.0 Maybe we get Bosh but it will be too difficult to sign and trade, or what if we keep Chuck Hayes what happens to Scola he could like Toronto maybe should try for Camby what about this what about that, lets hope we can do this but the luxury tax, omg the owner isn't cheap but when he had to spend the money he wouldn't but now he can though the talent isn't there to spend money so this and that....

AND NOW WE FINALLY HAVE A PLAN BECAUSE IN MOREY WE TRUST??

Sounds like Congress trying to pass healthcare.

Fifteen years and counting....

 

I salute Bima for a truly fantastic article.

Now, correct me if I am wrong but it appears to me that Morey by making the trade to get rid of T-Slack may have inadvertedly screwed the pooch. I'm referring to the their taking back a lot of salary on dead weight players. Unlike many others here, I'm not the least bit impressed with Hill, Jeffries or Armstrong. I have seen the Rox trade for far too many big bodies who ended up doing squat to be optimistic that this time things will be different. Sorry, but these are not the guys I'd want around to help push the team into luxury tax land.

Sure, he FINALLY got the SG the Rox have needed since trading away Mobley 5 years ago but at what price? If, as Bima points out, they simply resign Scola & Lowry and bring back Hayes for cheap and add Yao (who will come back with a BIG ? mark), can this really be considered a legitimate contender come 2010-2011? That is the big question and I would expect speculation here to vary wildly.

I'm curious to see how things would have played out if they had simply let MeMac's contract expire. Would they have been out of the luxury tax? Could that money have been better used to make a run at Bosh? The Rox are now between a rock and a hard place and their next draft has to produce a true player capable of contributing right away or it may get ugly around here.

A final word about Bosh: Do not overlook Mark Cuban in the Bosh sweepstakes. My Mavs "source" tells me that MC wants Bosh very badly and what Cuban wants, he usually gets. Just a thought.

 

It's kind of hard to have a specific plan in the NBA when you are rebuilding. Draft picks and free agency are both unknowns. I'm not sure what you want- should Morey say "we're gearing up for Chris Bosh, that is our plan"? Then what happens if we don't get him? He looks like a fool. Ultimately I think the plan is eventually to bring another all-star talent in, whether it be through the draft, free agency this summer, trade deadline next year, or the following summer.

Under Morey we were better last year than we have been since the Barkley/Drexler/Olajuwon days. And we're poised to potentially be even better next year.

Don't litter this great thread with skepticism- that's what the rest of the GARM is for.

 

See BimaThug's other post: The Myth of the Rockets and 2010 Free Agency.

To summarize, the Rockets would not be a major player in this summer's FA market. The big trade landed us Martin, who is way a better player than the Rockets could have landed this summer if they let TMac walk.

 

Great article.

1. I agree that this summer could get ugly for Lowry and Scola. I don't think they will get as big of a raise as most people think. If they want to give the Rockets a nice discount in exchange for a multi-year deal then I would assume DM would do it. One thing we have seen is that DM is more than willing to set a price on a player and not exceed that price. He played hardball with Landry and Von. He let Artest walk and he would not exceed his price for Gortat regardless of how big our need for him was. I could definitely see both players singing a 1 year deal at the qualifying offer.

2. It would not surprise me at all if DM chose not to use the MLE at all. If the Rockets choose not to keep Hilton Armstron in the summer that gives them 13 players under contract. Throw in a 1st round pick and the Rockets would have 14 guaranteed contracts and well over the salary cap.

3. I think DM will position the Rockets to try and get under the LT Threshold next year. Don't use the MLE, don't over pay for Scola or Lowry and use either Jeffrie's or Battier's expiring contracts to get under the cap at the trade deadline.

Of course all bets are off if they are able to do a sign and trade for someone like Bosh.

 

While "No Worries" has wisely pointed you to my Myth of 2010 Free Agency Thread, I want to expand on what was accomplished vs. given up in this trade.

Yes, the Rockets gave up a max of about $7-9M in cap room (at the expense of cutting Scola, Lowry and Hayes loose) that would have given them more flexibility to fit in a major free agent (via sign-and-trade) under the salary cap, and instead vaulted themselves into a position where they will need to pay luxury tax after re-signing Scola and Lowry.

BUT . . .

The Rockets never would have been able to pull off a sign-and-trade for any major free agent this summer if this trade had not happened. I mean, what could the Rockets possibly offer a team like Toronto in exchange for a signed-and-trade Chris Bosh?

An aging Tracy McGrady via sign-and-trade? If so, the Rockets would lose their cap room, and Toronto would have to take back at least $13.175M in salary from Houston.

What sweeteners would the Rockets have? Aaron Brooks? Carl Landry? Chase Budinger? A 2010 first rounder who was already selected by the Rockets (not the Raptors)? A 2011 (late) first round pick? THEN what are the Rockets left with?

With this trade, the Rockets have stockpiled plenty of assets to sweeten any pot in a sign-and-trade. That "dead weight" that you were talking about? Jared Jeffries's contract is WHY the Rockets got those phenomenal future draft picks, not McGrady. Hilton Armstrong is an expiring contract that was just thrown in to make the salary cap math work in order to get Kevin Martin. Jordan Hill is a rookie lottery pick with tons of potential. Each one of those guys was added for a specific reason that will (hopefully) HELP the Rockets, not hurt them.

Now, the Rockets can approach a Toronto or a Phoenix with the following assets to include in any sign-and-trade (in various combinations):

Jordan Hill
Chase Budinger
2010 recent late lottery pick selection
The HIGHER of the Knicks' and the Rockets' 2011 pick (likely to be a lottery pick)
The Knicks' 2012 pick (likely to be at least a late lottery pick)
The Rockets' 2012 pick
Draft rights to Sergio Llull (becoming very highly regarded PG prospect)
Draft rights to Lior Eliyahu (becoming a top player in Europe and coveted by other teams)

While the salary cap math will definitely be tricky without including a third team with cap room (which the Rockets could possibly bribe with some of the assets listed above), that is as impressive a list of tradable assets as just about any team in the league can (and would) provide.

Yes, the Rockets will be a tax-paying team next year. But the OPPORTUNITIES to bring in a big time player this summer actually increased for the Rockets with this trade, not decreased. Daryl Morey said as much in his press conference.

In Morey We Trust.

 

Great thread.

Just some bugging thoughts. Morey wants to re-sign Scola no matter what it takes. Regard the coming draft as a big man draft. Just traded for Hill who is a lottery pick this year. And wanted to trade for an all-star PF i.e. Bosh/Amare?

Why do everyone thinks Morey wanted to sign Bosh/Amare? For me Morey already plan for the PF position coming season by having Scola, Hill, Draft Pick and Hayes. If the sole purpose for re-signing Scola is to have him available for trade, I wonder how would it change the mind set of anyone that is going to re-sign under Morey in the future.