[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

I'm sure they might try this, but.. do you really believe they would prefer to face Bosh 4x a season just because Houston isn't offering them enough? Furthermore, what is NY offering? They don't have a 2012 pick and their 2011 pick will most likely not be in the lottery (since Houston would swap). I just don't see any leg Toronto can stand on if Bosh makes it clear he will not re-sign there.

Looking back at the history if sign-and-trades (Hedo; Rashard; McGrady; Kenyon Martin; Joe Johnson), most teams who were losing the star got back a couple picks. The value of trading for Bosh in a sign-and-trade is no where near the value you would have to give up if it were a straight up trade. Toronto is backed into a corner and has to at least get something of value for him. They won't take back bad contracts - but two expirings (Jeffries/Battier), one of which is a good rotation player (Battier), and multiple 1st round picks PLUS the rights to Llull? No way they turn this down.*

*as long as Bosh makes it clear he's not re-signing.

 

I actually thought about this after the trade deadline. Unfortunately, there are some key distinctions with the Philly deal:

(1) According to several reports, the Rockets actually DID "pull the trigger" on an Iggy/Dalembert trade, offering up T-Mac and Chase Budinger. The Sixers said "no". Frankly, I wouldn't want to offer up MORE than that for those two guys.

(2) The cap hell that Dalembert's contract would have caused the Rockets is significantly more than the hit Les will be taking from Jared Jeffries's contract. Combine that with the Knicks' desperation and subsequent willingness to part with potentially three lottery picks, the Jeffries route just seemed much more palatable.

(3) For as great a player as Andre Iguodala is, I think (and more importantly, Daryl Morey thinks) that Kevin Martin was a better FIT with Yao Ming. Martin is the superior shooter. He is better at getting to the free throw line and making his foul shots. Martin also doesn't need the ball in his hands to initiate the offense. These are some big reasons to prefer Martin over Iguodala, all else equal. Combine that with the fact that Martin will be owed about $8.5M less than Iggy through 2012-13, and that Iggy also has an ETO year on top of that for another $15.9M in 2013-14, and Kevin Martin is clearly the more favorable option, long term.

Frankly, I'm glad Philly said no, because the Martin trade is just flat out more bountiful for the Rockets.

 

Bima's section on Sign and Trades perfectly describes why I would not be willing to part with Brooks to get a guy like Bosh--it would require too many other assets and too much additional salary.

Morey is anything but predictable, but if I'm predicting anyway, I'd say the three most likely outcomes this off-season are:

1. We stick with what we've got. We sign an MLE free agent and bring back Scola and Lowry. The situation with Chuck Hayes and Hilton Armstrong is decided based on who we draft and how they play this year (as well as Jared Jeffries who is under contract regardless and could be a poor man's Chuckwagon).

or

2. We trade for a decent player on a reasonable salary. A couple of Orlando's players, Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat, jump to mind. I'm sure there are numerous other possibilities throughout the league. We could use Battier or Jeffries to make the salaries match and include draft picks or a prospect (Budinger, Hill, Taylor, rights to Llull) to grease the deal. In this case we still have our MLE and could use it to sign a decent free agent to help replace whatever we lost in the trade.

Anything else should be viewed as a remote possibility any nothing more.

 

*Correction: Two most likely possibilities, not three.

 

Good to know, thanks again for the article. Great job.

 

Great read Bima. I always only had aelliott and NIKEStrad as the top capologists on the radar, but you are right up there. It's contributions like this which more than make up for the knee-jerk threads by some others and for the flood of ESPN/RealGM type message board people who just post nonsense.

Thank you.

Bima, would you agree that it might actually be more likely that we make a thread mid-season next year (involving Jeffries' and Battier's contracts), as teams would get cap relief for the 2011-2012 season, but without having to pay Battier's and Jeffries' contracts for a full season?

 

If the Rockets don't use their MLE on a second- or third-tier free agent this summer, I definitely think they'll look to package the expiring contracts of EITHER Battier or Jeffries (probably not both) with other assets in order to trade for a good player on a long-term deal and whose team is desperate for cap relief. If the MLE is fully used, I don't know if Les would commit to such a large payroll for the 2011-12 season without knowing if there will be a hard cap put in place or other penalties more severe than the luxury tax.

And what's with the name change, SJC? I was wondering what happened to you.

 

Battier is sadly becoming more valuable as an expiring contract than as a player lately.

It would be a complete change in team chemistry to lose him and Chuck Hayes though.

 

One question I have about this whole money business of the NBA is do the owners make money with their teams? Is it all from ticket sales? Is the broadcasting of games and popularity of a team make more money for the team and owner? Do all teams share an equal amount of revenue generated from broadcasts, or do teams like the Lakers and Cleveland make more because they are on national television more often? If LA and Cavs make more money, then paying more money on players to stay contenders is what teams need to do in order to generate more revenue. I think the Rockets need to file a formal complaint, like Cuban seems to do every year over some stupid stuff, with the NBA for not having any national TV airtime. I think this disrespect of the Rockets franchise is going to affect its future ability to get talented players to want to play for the Rockets. Why do players want to go to the Lakers? Because they will be seen on TV. They will get sponsor contracts, they will make more money going there. If it wasn't for Yao's big chinese market we may not get anyone intrested to come to the Rockets and we will become the next clippers or golden state.

 

great thread bima! not looking good for a pf addition of the magnitude the rockets need though. It looks like like the rockets are paying more money and are actually worse than when the season started and they still have the same problem, no down low presence and no big power forward to help us compete with the playoff teams that have sooo much size. i believe that in the end the rockets will be a totaly different team than last year and probably sacramento king like. maybe 4 players will remain from this years team. sad when when it seemed like all they needed against the lakers was size.(pf)

 

If you can get Bosh....why do you still need Scola?? Seriously...think about it! So if can trade Scola + additional assets for Bosh...why not do it?? Perfect!!

 

Bima, Can you write about the cap implications of the upcoming end of the Mayan Calendar in 2012? I think this would mean the Rockets would be more willing to take bad that extends into the 2012-2013 season and beyond (Elton Brand) because the world will come to an end prior to the expiration of such contracts. What do you think?

Do you think the anti-Christ and the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse, and, later on, Jesus (I believe) will allow the NBA to continue operating after the End?

 

I think we'll end up getting Amare in a sign & trade. You could give him a max contract by trading Battier, Jeffries, and Hill to the Suns. In addition to Hill, I would give our pick next year plus both of the Knick picks, and cash to help offset the salaries the Suns would take on.

 

So does this really mean we are going to have our hands tied when it comes to making deals for big FAs this summer

 

Whether it is good business or not, it's the rules. Morey can't even ask about Bosh till July 1st.

Unless you are asking if he will ask Bosh directly to encourage Tor to make the SnT. The way it probably goes is he let's Bosh know on July 1 that he wants him here and asks if he would be willing to come here. Then when(if) Bosh says yes, Morey then calls Tor and says "Chris wants to come, what would you want to work a deal"

Your post wasnt real clear on what your question was, so thats my shot at answering

 

Define "big".

If you thought Mcgrady's money was going to net us max money for a "big" FA, you havent been keeping up.

Also, reading your question tells me you didnt read the article.

We have tons of options with the assets we have to sign a good FA thru SnT (or via a regular trade)

That was the point of trading Mcgrady, breaking up his large contract into multiple pieces.

 

Great article! 5 stars!

 

uuh, as long as their team isnt losing money, then yes.

all that money goes into a giant pool called BRI (basketball related income) It gets much more complicated from there....you can read the details at http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm

Irrelevant since this doesnt apply

never stopped us before.

nonsense, this franchise has a long and storied history that existed LONG before Yao. We were fine before Yao, and we will be fine after Yao. Clippers and GS are loser franchises because of poor management...not anything to do with what you said. FTR...in case you hadnt noticed....Clippers are in LA also....hasnt helped them a whole hell of a lot.

 

Bima, in the S&T part of the article you mentioned using scola to help make the salaries match for someone like bosh. maybe i'm not remembering the rule correctly or maybe it changed, but i thought you couldn't package other people with a sign and trade player so how could we include scola in any non-straight up trades?

really nice article.

 

It can't?

NBA Salary Cap FAQ

"Can cash be included as part of a trade package?

Players can be traded for cash, and cash can be included in trade packages. The amount of cash is limited to $3 million. The cash is NOT considered when matching salaries under the Traded Player exception.

In a sign-and-trade arrangement, if the contract contains a signing bonus, then any amount of this bonus paid by the signing team counts toward the $3 million limit (see question number 78). "