[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update

Dumping shane to the clipps along with taylor for a te makes sense all the way around. Having ariza and chase along with martin manning the wing, i dont see why shane should still be on the squad. People think dumpiong salary sends the wrong message and i disagree. If the team were close to a ring, then yes,but they're not.They're not all in because at best theyre a 5th seed. Scola and yao can be the vets and they produce. Brooks is the best player and its time for him to step up as a leader.

 

You have to keep expiring contracts around just in case there is trade deadline deal to be had. Dumping Battier and Taylor at this point is inadvisable even if they were completely worthless players, which they are not.

 

Rockets won't have enough expiring filler contracts to do a $20M+ trade.

Przybilla's insured contract would be the way to go.

 

A. They are NOT the 5th seed, you nor I know WHAT they are, they may be the 1st seed, they may be the 8th seed.

B. I agree with dumping salary, and Shane would net you something...but Jeffries is a complete waste right now.....if you can dump him, you do it...at least at the trade deadline.

DD

 

I agree to a certain extent, but they would still have jeffries and hayes which is worth a 12m dollar player.

 

I'm pretty sure they're no better than a 4, but we can argue about that in another thread. Battier makes about 1m more than jeffries. I personally dont care which one goes, i just think jeffries gives the team a hybrid 4 to guard the other hybrids, but it doesnt matter. Point is, both plus hayes are not needed. I've seen jeffries guard lebron very well on a piss poor wizards team and i've seen him guard the odom/dirks pretty well also. He can basically take the place of hayes and shane, but i will get a lot of flack from that one.Point is DD and you know it and its the reason why bima thug will be wearing a very special sig because of me. We both know,no matter the p.r. lip service that is given that les aint eva,eva paying the lux tax. If they get out the gate slow, the dump will cost more. If they play well early, he will hang on and it will be cheaper.

 

You have to be stupid to be "pretty sure". An injury or two could change the whole landscape in the first week of the season, and major players have injuries all year every year. What would happen to the Lakers if Gasol had a season ending, or even a season-halving injury (God forbid)? How did Portland live up to their expectations last season?

 

Portland won 50 games despite the injuries last year. If the lakers lost gasol, bynum would be 20-10 again as he always do when gasol is out and they would be ok.The rockets need a couple of injuries from a couple of teams and maintain good health to get past the 4 seed. I'm not saying it cant happen,just unlikely. We know martin will miss 20 games a year and ariza misses his share also. Yao is always one injury from retirement as we have seen. Bottomline is the hope by fans to land this special player is a crack pipe dream. By my count, there are 2 of those guys left who might be traded. Problem is, both are in our conference and 1 is in the division. I'm all for upgrading the talent, i just dont see how iggy or granger propels the rockets into elite category with yao being gimpy.I'm just real about it.

 

hehe...leebigz just hates Shane.

 

Do you ever have anything positive to say about the Rockets? You are a Rockets fan are you not?

 

Rather than responding individually to DD, CH and the other posters asking me about the David Andersen deal, I'll just put my thoughts about the deal and its impact on the Rockets luxury tax situation.


THE PICK THE ROCKETS "RECEIVED": Anyone who thinks the Rockets received a second round pick in this deal that they will ever actually be able to use, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. That pick is an obscure outstanding nominal draft pick obligation owed to Toronto by the Clippers. The pick isn't owed until 2015 and only goes to Toronto--and through on to Houston--if the Clippers are picking between #51 and #55. Otherwise, the obligation is extinguished and no pick is owed. Frankly, I'm not holding my breath hoping that the Clippers finish with between the sixth and tenth best record in the league after the 2014-15 season.

(And, DD, sorry I was "so off" on that Andersen salary dump prediction. Rather than having to give up a second rounder and pay $2M cash, the Rockets instead avoided trading the pick and likely paid $2.5M to $3M cash. I beg your forgiveness. )


THE ROCKETS' CURRENT TAX SITUATION: After dumping Andersen's $2.5M salary, the Rockets currently stand approximately $8.84M above the luxury tax threshold. Even after a salary dump of Jared Jeffries, and assuming that all non-guaranteed contracts (Mike Harris, Alexander Johnson and now, I think, Ishmael Smith) are wiped off the books, the Rockets would STILL be above the threshold.


THE "CARROT" FOR GETTING UNDER THE THRESHOLD: Something that few posters here (besides me :grin: ) have stated is that the incentive for owners to completely avoid the luxury tax--getting those shared luxury tax revenues--will not be nearly the incentive it has been in years past. Sure, teams always have incentive to shed salary to avoid paying the 100% luxury tax, but the reason for owners not even wanting to pay $1 of tax was that they would otherwise lose out on their 1/30th share of all collected luxury tax revenues. But that pot is going to be SIGNIFICANTLY less than in years past.

Cleveland (the third-highest taxpayer last year) will be paying zero tax, as will New York and Miami. The Spurs (the sixth-highest taxpayer) likely will also pay zero, thanks to Richard Jefferson's generosity. The Mavs (second-highest) will pay less in tax next year (Dirk's "pay cut", Tyson Chandler trade), as will the (fourth-highest) Celtics (Pierce's "pay cut", Allen coming back for half his former salary, Rasheed possibly retiring). If the Lakers can successfully dump Sasha Vujacic's salary (an easier task than dumping Jeffries, I might add), that will further reduce the luxury tax pot by another $5M.

So, in the end, many owners (Les Alexander included, in my opinion) will be less anxious to get absolutely below the tax threshold. Moves like dumping Andersen to avoid $2.5M in luxury tax is perfectly fine. But the desperation to get below some magical line will not be quite so prevalent next season. At least not for teams in the salary range in which the Rockets currently find themselves.


THE PROSPECT OF DUMPING JARED JEFFRIES: As many others have already astutely noted, the Rockets aren't going to dump the large expiring contracts of Jared Jeffries or Shane Battier until it is absolutely clear that a star player cannot be obtained for a price the Rockets are willing to pay. (It should be noted that, in any situation where the Rockets net a star player via trade, they will likely be vaulted deeper into luxury tax territory; and this is what Les and Morey actually WANT to have happen!) However, if no star can be acquired by the eleventh hour as the February trade deadline ticks to its conclusion, then the Rockets would be foolish not to at least TRY to dump Jeffries's salary.

But it's going to cost them. A lot.

It cost the Jazz an actual proven mid-first round pick (Eric Maynor) to dump the INSURANCE-COVERED, $6.5M expiring contract of Matt Harpring. It cost the Suns two first round picks to dump the expiring contract of Kurt Thomas. Both of those contracts (Harpring's insurance-covered deal and the last year of the deal for the aging but still effective Thomas) are likely viewed in NBA circles as better assets than Jared Jeffries's contract. Sure, Jared can play some D. But that contract is ugly. There's a reason the Rockets got Jordan Hill and the rights to potentially acquire two more lottery picks in exchange for taking on his deal.

Even in today's NBA landscape of teams with cap room and/or trade exceptions (yes, CH, I acknowledge your point), teams are not going to be particularly eager to take on Jeffries's contract in exchange for only $3M cash and a second rounder. It will cost the Rockets AT LEAST one (if not two) first rounders to dump Jeffries. Just look at the Lakers. They can't find any takers (at least not yet) for Vujacic's $5M expiring contract, even with them offering up a first rounder for the privilege of being rid of him. (And people, please spare me the whole "the Lakers' first rounder isn't as valuable as an early second rounder" crap. The Knicks paid $3M for the Lakers' first rounder in 2009. That pick has real value.)


WHAT IT WOULD TAKE TO ACTUALLY GET BELOW THE THRESHOLD: I think that, at the end of the day, in order for the Rockets to get all the way below the tax threshold, it will cost the team at least two first rounders, a bunch of cash, and possibly a second rounder as well. Once you account for the values the Rockets place on the picks they'd have to give up, it is quite conceivable that the "price" for saving money just isn't worth it.


BOTTOM LINE:

--Good salary dump for Les and Morey.

--That pick basically doesn't exist.

--The Rockets don't have to get all the way below the tax threshold to make Les happy.

--Dumping Jeffries and one or two other players will cost the Rockets a bunch of money and assets.

And, no, I don't see them trading Shane Battier in a straight salary dump.

 

Bima,

I generally agree with you. Particularly, that the team's goal is to hopefully get a star, which will definitely lock them into tax territory.

However, I can see them trading Jeffries at the deadline if the price is, for example, the Rockets' own 1st rounder in 2012.

I acknowledge that the Lakers are not having luck dumping Sasha for a 1st rounder right now, but I am thinking a Sasha or Jeffries trade may happen closer to the deadline since only 1/2 of the salary will be owed at that time.

 

Multiple trades of $1-4M contract + $3M cash c. + pick/other asset
> Jeffries + $3M cash c. (salary not entirely covered by c.c.?) + pick

 

Bottom line: thanks for the Post!

 

If Yao fails,I see a limited future role for Battier too. How much money can the Rockets send out from the expiring contracts of Yao,Battier,and Jeffries at the February deadline?

 

I agree that the money received this year will be less than in former years, but the fact that you have to pay dollar for dollar over the threshold is enough to get under it. Now this so called star people are clamoring for, i dont see it. The only 2 true superstars that can be traded are in the west and same conference. The nuggets nor the hornets will trade those guys to the rockets. I'm just being truthful about it. Now if granger or iggy floats your boat, then cool, i like both, but neither are superstars. I just think when the season plays out and the rockets are doing what they do, whatever that might be, we will see roster moves. The teams with roster space and trade exceptions can facilitate a trade if needed or when the time is right. I dont buy the all in theory some are celebrating over.

 

That is how I see it too, especially when you can get under the tax by trading off bench or bit players.

DD

 

The bigez train is still rolling. Since you've been on it for awhile, you get a discount,lol.

 

If we look like we are going to make the post-season, I cannot understand why we would salary dump Jeffries. Especially if it cost us something in the future. Jeffries was a contributor down the stretch. I can't see why you wouldn't swallow the contract now and hope he continues to contribute in the little ways he does. He's a pretty smart player.

 

After some further reflection, I am starting to come around to the POSSIBILITY--yes, I said POSSIBILITY, not PROBABILITY--that the Rockets might actually be able to sneak under the luxury tax threshold next season. But this will ONLY happen if the Rockets can make no other moves to improve their team. And before leebigez and DD jump down my throat saying that I am admitting they are right, I am NOT admitting to anything of the sort.

The Rockets have no PLAN to get under the tax threshold. Their PLAN is to use the Jared Jeffries's expiring contract as a piece in a trade package to acquire a star player. To enter a season significantly over the luxury tax threshold, without a trade specifically lined up, is ludicrous for any team PLANNING on getting below the threshold.

Yes, the Rockets' top priority is a "superstar" like Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony. But I imagine that "Plan B" is to make a run--for the right price--at guys like Danny Granger and Andre Iguodala. In other words, guys who may be considered "star" players or All-Star quality players. THAT is the plan. A clear talent upgrade of the roster, even if it entails taking on additional salary and paying additional luxury tax, IF the benefit to the team is sufficient. Les Alexander's willingness to do this is what I mean when I say he is going "all in" next season.

That said, if the February trade deadline rolls around and the Rockets can find no takers for its assets (in a reasonable deal), then the Rockets would certainly be foolish not to explore ways to reduce or even eliminate their luxury tax exposure. But trying to get under the tax threshold as a LAST RESORT does not remotely equate to Les "pulling the wool over everyone's eyes" or "being the same ol' Les" by avoiding the tax. He's just being a smart businessman. Nothing wrong with that.

Based on my calculations, if the Rockets wanted to dump Jared Jeffries at the deadline (and this is AT the deadline, when his value is at its absolute highest, and not a day before), the team taking him back will still have to pay him a little over $2.35M. This means that, even if Les throws in the maximum $3M in cash, the other team would "only" be getting less than $650,000 for its troubles, which may even include having to waive a young, minimum-salaried player who that team may actually want to keep around.

This is why picks will need to be involved. Most likely a first rounder; a second rounder won't cut it, not even the 2011 pick (the higher of the Rockets' or the Clippers' second round pick). (I have backed off my earlier view that two first rounders would be necessary, but ONLY if this is AT the trade deadline.) I could see a last-minute trade to dump Jeffries falling through at the eleventh hour due to an impasse in negotiations over the protection on that first rounder.

Because getting all the way under the threshold would likely involve not only dumping Jeffries (and costing the team $3M cash and a first rounder) but also losing Jermaine Taylor (an Adelman favorite), and since the tax revenue payout will be much lower than the ~$3M it was for last season, I think the more likely scenario--IF AND ONLY IF the Rockets completely strike out on all trades to upgrade the roster--is that the Rockets make another tax-REDUCING move. Something like this:

Rockets trade: Jared Jeffries and undisclosed amount of cash
Other Team trades: [Crappy player on expiring contract who makes less than Jeffries, the difference being a little less than the amount of cash the Rockets are throwing in the deal]

Basically, something akin to the Knicks' luxury tax-reducing move at the deadline last year trading Darko Milicic and cash to Minnesota for Brian Cardinal. Luckily for Minnesota, Darko actually showed something to them in the final months and got a nice contract out of it. But that trade was a straight salary dump by New York that didn't eliminate their tax pain (they still paid ~$5-6M in tax) but at least reduced it by $1-2M.

Bottom line:
--There is no "plan" to avoid the tax
--Les IS going "all in" trying to win
--IF no good trades can be made, Les would be foolish not to explore reducing his tax burden
--I am at least open to the idea of the Rockets maybe avoiding the tax
--It is unlikely and would cost the team at least Taylor and a first rounder
--The more likely move is a tax-reducing trade for another team's crap