I think 1 had a better shot than 50/50, but we're splitting hairs. In case 3, who's to say there would've been a convention fight? If the delegates had made their intentions clear, Clinton would have been the obvious nominee, and Obama's supporters would've had three months to cool off. But the larger issue is that who are we to arbitrarily assign a number there? If probability is a requirement to run for a political office, then why did anyone besides Clinton and Obama run for president? It's just like any issue -- if you truly believe in your argument, you make your case. In case 3, there are so many variables potentially at play there -- along with your own bias -- that I don't see how any of us can come that close on nailing a percentage probability of success.
I don't in any way think she was cheated. She lost fair and square. The Obama campaign was clearly more detail oriented and better. When I said double standards, I was referring to the paranoid nature of some voters -- see thumbs in the other thread in this forum. She deals with more BS and absurd paranoia than any candidate I've ever seen. It's August -- the campaign doesn't even begin until September. Wait and see.
I agree with you. Given the most positive Hillary numbers and most negative Barack numbers, right before Pennsylvania, she had a chance to overtake Obama in an officially irrelevant metric so that she could push an argument to the superdelegates that they should commit to her en masse. After PA, she didn't even have that incredibly poor argument left. And yet she still claimed an overall popular vote victory and allowed herself to be introduced as the next president of the United States on the night she was finally mathematically eliminated. And yet, with all that, with all the clarity we have about how poorly her campaign was run (and how poorly, by extension, she managed it), with all the bad behavior she was responsible for between Feb-June when you acknowledge she had only the tiniest chance, you still imagine a fantastical double standard such that your blood boils. That's a shame. But anyway, again, I read this memos as a net positive for Hillary. I'm looking forward to supporting her enthusiastically and without reservation again. And the stuff she's done since conceding and the stuff in these memos helps me down that path.
I'm glad to hear you say you don't think she was cheated and that the primaries were fair. I misunderstood what you meant by double standard. You're absolutely right that she suffers incredibly paranoid, insane responses from crazy people unlike I've ever seen with any other candidate ever. thumbs is a perfect example of a total nutjob when it comes to that.
To get back on track, here's the Atlantic article on it: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200809/hillary-clinton-campaign And the actual memos themselves: http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200808u/clinton-memos
Paranoia? Please. It's called downright hatred. I defy anyone here to find a quote in any thread where I express support of any kind for Hillary on a national stage. I am devoted to opposing her at every turn in the bend. Personally, I think she should be elected permanent governor of New York. New Yorkers deserve her.
New York elected her to the Senate to keep her on the national stage. But, I apologize. I've met some good folks from there, so not all New Yorkers deserve her
I've been pretty harsh on Hillary over the last year, and I would argue she has deserved it, but I swear to God... When I see that you've posted in a Hillary-related thread I get an instant migraine. Your feelings toward her are irrational and insane. You should seek counseling.
No, no, no. I apologize for your migraines, but think of it this way. My absolute disdain for her mirrors the absolute disdain some here have for George Bush. Does that help?
Not really. The difference is that the criticism of Bush (and my past criticism of Hillary) is directly related to things they have done -- not just to deepseated irrational, personal hatred. Your posts about Hillary make me think she reminds you of someone who personally wronged you very badly. They almost never include substance and they almost always suggest she is actually evil. It is weird. And not a little disturbing from someone who generally seems sane otherwise.
Back on topic: I'm only on page 4 of this Atlantic story but man is it ever fascinating. I freaking love it when events conspire to take the lid off a campaign after the fact. As a fan of politics, it blows my mind. I do agree with The Cat when he said at the beginning of this thread that it would be equally fascinating to read about the inner mechanics of any other campaign; it would be. But reading about this one is truly blowing my mind. The only comp I can think of is the post-2004 expose that came out in Newsweek with all the behind-the-scenes stuff from both camps. But this one's an even closer look. Highly recommended read.
Superman has Lex Luthor, Sherlock Holmes has Moriarity, etc. etc. Evil incarnate is legendary. With her unsavory history, it's easy and fun to pin the tail on the donkey.
Those guys all knew each other. You're coming off a little closer to John Hinkley or Mark David Chapman if you imagine you and Hillary are rivals somehow. But whatever. I'm not looking for a fight with you. I just had to mention it seemed weird.
Hinkley had a gun (and you know I am a champion of gun control, particularly pistols). I only have a pen. And, nope. She is not a rival. I just don't want her to have any meaningful national leadership role.
In the article, you mean? There's no bombshell in it (with the possible exception of Penn pushing an extreme, xenophobic meme which Hillary honorably rejected). Just a fascinating look behind the scenes of a high stakes campaign.
That is very clear. Except you never seem to say why except that you personally hate her. My disdain of her over the last year and my ongoing disdain of Bush was always a direct result of their actions, not a personal grudge. I just can't identify with it, that's all.
Let's just say that it stems from what she did to some of my cousin's relatives in Arkansas during her Whitewater days. We'll leave it at that.