There are communities in the West where they would be ecstatic with one week of smoke. Places like the Bitterroot Valley in Montana, Wenatchee, WA, and many others will often go a month or more in crazily unhealthy smoke. It's not just California. Consider that the west side of the Cascades has yet to fully come online for wildland fire, but we are getting closer every year. There are more urban interface homes in Western Washington than all of California. Since 2015, we've had several historically uncharacteristic fires in and around Olympic National Park. We were able to keep them small-ish, but the way they burned and the time of year they burned raised some eyebrows. It's only going to get worse. We're also worried about parts back east. New England, especially Maine, just needs a few conditions to line up for a nice firestorm. New Jersey is always problematic. Then there is the SE--with all the dead and down from Helene, you'll soon have brush fields and young trees creating an even-aged fuel regime over the top of large woody debris. A little drought in the next 5-10 years, a spark or dry lightning, and away we go. Of course, there's also East Texas. 2011 was not a one-off and it will happen again.
The last four days have made it clear that when it comes to climate change, we are on our own. Take a hard, cold look at your situation and make a long-term (ideally multi-generational) plan for you and the people you love. Once you do that, place your bets and hope for something better than the worst. Good luck everyone.
We get some of the same Youtube suggestions. I was just watching the other day about the Colorado River Delta destruction due to the legacy of poor water management policies. It would be really nice if we could focus on fixing some of the ongoing mega disasters that we have caused in the southwest and in California. The Colorado River Delta problem seems to be pretty much caused by terrible, inelastic policies that couldn't adjust for improper estimations of the actual river flow.
You might enjoy the book Cadillac Desert, even though it's somewhat old now. Great reporting on everything related to water in the SWestern US. I believe someone turned it into a documentary also, but I thought the book was much better.
I think a lot of humans are taking a hard, cold look at their situation (including their finances) and opting to be one-generational... a genetic cul-de-sac, if you will.
I'll have to check it out. After watching the PBS video and the restoration efforts on the Mexican side of the Colorado it reminded me of the vast changes that have occurred to central Texas and west Texas after the 1800s and til today. Bison used to graze all the way down to Mexico in the Chihuahuan desert before ranching destroyed the grasslands. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331582514_HISTORICAL_ECOLOGY_OF_THE_TEXAS_HILL_COUNTRY That's a cool PDF I found awhile back that goes over the known ecology of central Texas post 1700 or so. We don't really have any good records prior to that.
Very cool, thank you. Less data heavy and more vibe: My favorite Cormac McCarthy novel is probably The Crossing. You follow this boy who kind of adopts an injured wolf. But over the whole many years of the book you get to see the west changing, and by the time the kid returns to the US from Mexico he just sees all these fences every which way. Super powerful (to me anyway).
Latest numbers on the LA fires: Climate change increased the odds of this happening by at least 35% according to several studies, including one by UCLA. Yes, the starts were human-caused, but the chances of human-caused starts (which covers a lot more than arson, including hot catalytic convertors parked over dry gas, power lines, trailer chains sparking, trains sparking, etc.) increase as the environment becomes more susceptible to burning. And then these fires took off. The total loss is now valued at $275 billion, which makes it the most expensive US disaster ever. But probably not for long. With a dollar amount that big, we'll all be paying some of it.
Interesting tidbits in Buffet's note to Berkshire-Hathaway shareholders: In general, property-casualty (“P/C”) insurance pricing strengthened during 2024, reflecting a major increase in damage from convective storms. Climate change may have been announcing its arrival. However, no “monster” event occurred during 2024. Someday, any day, a truly staggering insurance loss will occur – and there is no guarantee that there will be only one per annum. Property damage arising from hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires is massive, growing and increasingly unpredictable in their patterns and eventual costs. We must never write inadequately-priced policies in order to stay in the game. https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
Watching this video at CNN and guy in car says “we are in a tornado!”. The camera turns to the passenger who finally decides to roll up the passenger side window. lol
Here's the current wildland fire prediction for July. I've seen worse maps (not many), but this one does have a lot of red on it at a time where capacity, expertise, and support have all been hollowed out. There's also a huge amount of red in East Texas, which is not a usual thing--hello 2011. If you get an evacuation notice, go. Just go and don't think twice. It's a near certainty that firefighters will need to make decisions about where to put limited resources and your neighborhood may not be the one they choose. In other words, more communities will burn this year because of our political choices and you need to clearly understand that.
