Last time I checked, it was the score at the end of the game that was the bottom line and not how well the offense did in the first half. If the Texans scored more in the first half and less in second half and ended up with the same record, would that make you happy? Likely no, but you would then have to find another reason why Kubiak's offense was part of the problem.
I've always felt that looking at the offense and the defense in individual vacuums was always a mistake statisticians made when trying to make a point about which offense was the best, and which the worst. Football is the definition of a team sport in that everything that happens on one side of the ball affects the other. I think the BIGGEST culprit as to why our offense would stall is obviously playcalling, but I think the defense's lack of turnovers and our lack of any big returns on special teams really held this team back this year. When an offense gets good field position (due to a big return, or a turnover), it opens up the playbook in multiple ways, and it allows the offense to really spread its wings. However, when you are CONSISTENTLY pinned back inside your own 20, you HAVE to play it close to the vest. To me, I think in order to TRULY gauge how offenses rank against each other, average field position HAS to be taken into account. I would bet that a lot of the teams that we consider to have "great" offenses probably also have a better average starting field position than the teams that we feel have "bad" offenses. I think the two REALLY go hand in hand, and to me, it's not really accurate to judge an offense based solely on yards and points.
Here's an interesting fact about the Texans. They have scored 40+ points only once in their franchise history. They scored 42 points in a game against Jacksonville in the last game of the season in 2007. For having a so-called "high-powered" offense you would think they would have scored 40+ points more than once.
That's true. At the end of the game, because they disappear for large chunks of the game, they were only 9th in scoring. Which makes them above average but far from elite.
Really? Because I suspect if the Texans were leading games in the 4th quarter thanks to a better defense, they wouldn't have gone into hurry up mode where they scored so many of their points. And as we've seen, they were a pretty mediocre offense when not in hurry up mode this season. Or is your argument that the coaches are so stupid that they still would have been hurrying up and trying to score when protecting a lead?
On the flip side, as bad as the defense was, they didn't give up 40 points to any team this season. I think one of Kubiak's problems is he has terrible situational offenses. He has his behind by 7 or more offense, his +/- 3 points offense, and his up by 10 offense. So any time the team gets up by 10 or more he tends to alter the game plan to that situation. Same for when the team is behind by 7. Which is fine in the last part of the 4th quarter, but terrible if it happens in the first quarter!
That's nice, but the Texans had 27 take-aways last year had virtually the same YPG and PPG that they did this year.
Hey, you don't need to convince me. I've been kicking those tires all season. I 100% believe that Kubiak, with this being his own system, has gotten 70 cents on the dollar out of this offense.
If you use footballoutsiders DVOA adjusted stats, the Texans are #2 in the league in offense on expected yards per play, adjusting for defense, down & distance. They are WAY behind the #1 team in this category, though, the Patriots. They also rank really pretty high in terms of variance - which makes sense given their pattern of stinking then launching a rally that falls short.
I think Kubiak deserves a lot of credit for what he’s done offensively with this team: He turned a back-up QB into a Pro Bowler; an undrafted free agent running back into a rushing champion; an undrafted free agent fullback into a Pro Bowler; a 4th round TE into a Pro Bowler, and somehow made one of the best – if not best – WRs in football even better. He also miraculously pulled a 2,000+ all-purpose yard season out of Steve Slaton once. Two years ago, Matt Schaub couldn’t stay healthy. They improved the pass protection last year. Last year, the team couldn’t run the ball and had trouble scoring in the red zone. They improved in both areas considerably this year. I’m not among those overly concerned with halves but I do have faith they’ll fix it. Some of it, as I’ve contended, will be fixed simply if the defense is even slightly improved. Beyond that, I think too many people are hyper-focused on the Texans and don’t realize how rather common it is for other offenses to sputter and be rather inconsistent. They’re not playing against a CPU; let’s give the other teams credit while, at the same time, remembering to give our guys credit for either initially devising a successful game plan that calls for counter-adjustments, or making proper adjustments to overcome a defense that initially has your number. In terms of how vital Kubiak is: I think the more accurate assessment is that his *system* is important. If a new coach comes in and doesn’t want to run the ZBS, then you have a minimum 3 OL to replace and possibly as many as 5 (plus find back-ups). You have a RB that has *only* done what’s he’s done in a ZBS – is he cut-out to thrive in another system? Can Schaub, Daniels, Walters, etc., thrive in another system? When you absolutely, positively HAVE to overhaul your defensive approach, scheme and personnel, it makes sense to not use up resources trying to also “fix” an offense that isn’t even remotely near as broken. And in those five halves, the defense allowed 10, 24, 17, 17 and 24 points. Does the offense look better if they had scored 7, 21, 14, 14, 21 points in those five halves? Because we would have been still freaking losing.
No offense, but its statements like this that make people think you are defending the idea of keeping Kubiak no matter how often you say he should be fired. When it comes to laying out reasoning for things, your reasons tend to support the idea of keeping Kubiak more than not.
I'm defending - or, at least, allowing to breathe - McNair's decision; not Kubiak. Not every thing has to be so black and white. I have no problem stating Kubiak has failed as a head coach while defending the strides the offense has made during his tenure. And now that the team has made its decision, we can fill page after page ranting about something that's not going to change, or we can dissect the decision and determine if, our knee-jerk, vitriolic reaction aside, there might be some merit to it. I’ve said all along that, if they intended to bring Kubiak back (again, a decision I can independently disagree with), that hiring a big-time defensive coordinator would (IMO) make the team markedly better. Lastly, you don’t have to have a haterection for someone to determine they’ve failed at their job. I’ve personally always liked what I’ve seen/read from Kubiak; seems like a great guy to play for. I recognize parts of his regime that succeeded in spite of the whole failing – why is that so untenable?
Well, I don't believe I ever actually said that - the offense certainly has some issues to iron out. But consider: In all 10 losses this year, the defense allowed at least 24 points. Heck, in 4 of their 6 *wins*, they defense allowed at least 24 points. That's 14 games of 24+ points. That means the offense, at some point, realized it would have to score a minimum of 3 TDs and a FG, plus play virtually mistake-free football, *just to be cometitive.* If you don't think that started to impact approach, game plan, focus - IOW, it started to have an impact even before the opening kick-off, not to mention in-game decisions - then I guess we can agree to disagree. If, next year, the defense is competent, I think - *think* - we'll see some of our offensive issues naturally work themselves out.
The offense will certainly score more points with a better defense, if simply from short fields. How many 90+ yard drives did they have this year?? I can't count. The things missing from the offense this year were short fields and the midrange passing TDs that we used to see alot. Having Andre Johnson running so many 3 yard routes won't be fixed by the defense. Dropcoby won't be fixed by the defense.
I wanted him to stay last year. My stance changed this year due to similar problems at the start of games not being prepared. Or having a lot of STUPID in the game plans. How many times did we hear Kubiak saying he should have called more running plays after games where Foster became Australian for "afterthought"....
Our receiving corp outside of AJ is vastly overrated by some Texans fans. And 'there's nothing wrong with our offense this year' is a sign of someone who hasn't been paying attention.
