Chuck Hayes vs. Winning

I really enjoy aelliott's posts. I can't even remember one time where aelliott would have been wrong about anything.

 

Now, this just shows that you really don't quite understand the meaning of the +/- stat, and rather than try to do so, you simply dismiss it as "lunacy".

Hayes was +13 for one simple reason: when Scola came in for him (especially in the 3rd quarter), Scola started to get lost on defensive rotations and there was a big-time drop off in defense. That was when the Knicks started to make their run. Hayes was actually forced to come out because of a foul he took to protect Yao, so an argument could be made theoretically that the game would never have been as close as it was if not for that substitution.

+/- isn't about points scored and rebounds pulled down, but I thought a poster of your caliber would know this.

 

No one is proposing that stats are a replacement for scouting. Maybe you think Feigen is lying when he says that the scouts/coaches love him, or maybe you think those scouts/coaches are delusional, but none of that has to do with an exclusive reliance on statistics.

You seem to be arguing that only stats-oriented folks would like Battier and Hayes as players. I actually think that's backwards. People who put more emphasis on numbers rather than watching games tend to under-rate these players, simply because the conventional numbers do not do them justice. Adelman continues to play Chuck significant minutes, even though he's not a good offensive player -- surely there's some reason for that. What some of us try to do is look at other objective evidence, not captured in the box score, which support things that coaches/scouts talk about. I could talk at length, like you, about what Chuck and Shane do to help their team. I also think it's useful to support that with hard evidence.

For someone who apparently despises the use of statistics, you sure know your way around 82games. Chuck fouls a lot, though his fouls per minute has gone down significantly this year (about 2 less per 40 minutes).

I just did a check. Amongst all PFs and Cs who've played at least 200 minutes this season (113 players), Chuck is 57th in fouls per minute -- exactly in the middle of the pack. In contrast, Scola is 32nd. So, there goes that.

I respect your knowledge of the game, and I agree with a lot of your points. I think you're overly dismissive of evidence (not just stats) that goes against your opinion.

 

The below is one of Feigan's comments about Chuck in response to a question someone asked him in his blog. Say what you will about Feigan being a "company guy" with his opinions, he is not known to outright lie or make up stories like this. I've highlighted the portion of his post regarding his coversation with two former scouts now in management in the NBA.

As many said, we pretty mucha all expect Luis to GRADUALLY get more minutes. The real question is whether you think Luis should take away Chuck's minutes RIGHT NOW. I don't think he should, and neither, it seems, does the coaching staff. They seem to be protecting Luis during his learnign process by pulling him whenever he struggles with things like defensive rotations and fouls. I think the coaches are doing a reasonable job of distributing minutes. How fast Luis get more minutes depends solely on his own improvement.

Also, someone (GATER?) said Chuck struggles against guys like Duncan and Dirk who can face up and shoot over him. Actually, the only one who does that consistently seems to be Kevin Garnett. Chuck (with other Rockets, of course) held Duncan to something like 5-15 shooting earlier this season. More recently, Chuck held Rashard Lewis, another tall face-up shooter, to a miserable shooting night. I think Dirk had one good shooting night vs. Houston and one not so good.

In any case, there are certain things Chuck does not do well-- but the coaches are not crazy in playing him the minutes they play him.

 

What's ironic about that Q/A from Feigen's blog is the emailer said Chuck wasn't "producing" (clearly in reference to his meager numbers). And Feigen's response focuses on what scouts have told him. And yet, GATER wants to put it the other way -- stats folks are hyping up Chuck instead of considering what scouts say.

Actually, every scout/coach I know about who's discussed Chuck at any length have been very positive about him. Hell, even renowned JVG/Rockets hater Charlie Rosen was extremely complementary about Chuck's defense earlier this year, and you know he's just looking for an excuse to rip apart players like Chuck.

 

I think both Landry and Scola are more gifted physically than Hayes. Hayes brings a lot of intangibles. I would like to see the PF position with more minutes to both Scola and Landry. Especially Landry because I think he's in the same mold as Craig Smith and Sheldon Williams.

 

Actually, so far this season Hayes and Scola are a wash as far as overall team offensive rating is concerned when they're on the court - Scola's team offensive rtg is actually slightly lower than Hayes'.

I expect that to start to change in Scola's favor as he progresses in his development, though.

 

Just be happy that this year we are not doing.....

Chuck Hayes vs. Juwan Howard.

Hallelujah!

 

I like Chuck Hayes. He makes the most of what he has. He gives 100% all the time. However, he should not be a starting PF for a team with high dreams, or if he is, then his minutes should be limited. Especially one which lacks athleticism and options to create offense in starting lineup. He would make an excellent option off of bench, though.

People who defend Hayes by saying a lot of things he does go unnoticed should also notice how the Rockets play 4 on 5 offense when he is there. Whoever is supposed to be guarding Hayes practically sits in Yao's lap before he even has the ball.

As already mentioned, Hayes defense is overrated. He is average to good but not the stopper he is made out to be. Heck, if he was as good as everyone says he was, maybe he could have switched over to Boozer in playoffs last year and shut him down.

A better use of Hayes might be as a defensive spark plug off of bench. Play him with a smaller lineup most of the time when Yao is getting rest. IMO, he becomes less of a handicap with that lineup because Haye's man actually has to stay with him, instead of chasing around the Rocket guards.


Let's say Rockets are entering the playoffs and the opposing team is scouting Hayes. I can see them thinking these....

1) Whoever is guarding Hayes....well don't. Be a roamer and stick to Yao, and if he is not there, then stick on whoever has the ball. This is Rocket's gift to us.

2) When he is in layup attempt mode, watch for the reverse layup on the other side. This is how he attempts most of his shots.

3) When he has the ball anywhere else, give him space. He will never ever attempt a jump shot.

4) When he has the ball, watch for cutters. That is the only way he is going to create offense. He is not going to create offense for himself.

4) Foul him. Foul him if he ever attempts a layup. Foul him when the game is close. Foul him whenever.


These are some serious liabilities on offense and too juicy not to exploit. It gets even worse when you add in Shane's liabilities and Rafer's inconsistent shooting.

Scola eliminates a lot of these, his defense isn't that bad either, and he always seems to know where the ball is going. The 15 foot open jumper he has been making is HUGE. It opens up the floor for Yao and McGrady to operate.

Charles Oakley provided it to Knicks.
Horace Grant provided it to Bulls and Magic.
Haslem provided it to the Heat.

I see Scola as very similar to those players. Tough interior players with good outside shot to spread the floor and keep defense honest. Added bonus is that Scola is better at creating offense than any of those players.

 

Is he really the worst player on the team? It is so obvious who's working hard and helping the team in so many ways and you get this kind of comments about the man? It's ok to compare him with Scola but Landry? That's terrible.
One reason why Hayes is on the floor is because it's more effective to play him with Yao. Then Scola can be a backup center or Deke but you can't play Deke and Hayes at the same time. If you start Scola and Yao, then we have weak bench.

 

The one BIG thing I am really unhappy about Chuck Hayes is: those WIDE OPEN layups he gets, he should be shooting at 62+%, not 55%. Could Chuck dunk the ball? I think he could.

 

Be happy he's not Ben Wallace and shooting 33% from the field. The Bulls would love it if Big Ben finished as well as Chuck.

Seriously, how many times does Chuck shoot per game? When a player shoots so infrequently, it really doesn't make a huge difference if he's shooting 62% versus 55%.

 

Why don't you actually take a look at the stats, if you're so concerned with Chuck's defensive numbers. There are 55 PFs in the league who have played at least 200 minutes thus far. Chuck is 12th in combined blocks+steals per minute. And if you take into account that steals are more valuable than blocks and weight accordingly (1.0 to 0.7), then Chuck is 9th in adjusted blocks+steals.

 

Not normally. If viewed in a vacuum, on a single play, a block is preferable to a hand in the face. But you don't get that luxury. You have to compare shotblockers, who normally take a lot of risks to position defenders who hold their ground. I'm pretty sure that every coach in every basketball league in the world would prefer a player who holds his ground and gets a hand in the face of his own man over a player who goes for blocks on his own man. It's better overall defense. Weakside shotblockers are a different story, but that's not relevant to this conversation.

 

Chuck has the 8th highest +/- defensive rating in the league, and the only reason why he's only 8th is because Scola isn't exactly a slouch either. His on-the-floor defensive rating is the highest of anyone in the league who doesn't wear a Celtics uniform. His defense is not overrated, not by a long shot.

He did a few times, and Boozer had plenty of trouble scoring when he did. Don't believe me? Go watch the series again if you can. The problem was that the Jazz had Okur camping out behind the 3 point line and there was no way the Rockets could have brought Yao out of the lane to guard Okur without giving up endless layups to cutting guards. It wasn't Boozer that made Yao look bad, it was the combination of Boozer + Okur that caused problems. As far as Okur was concerned, he had a horrible series shooting the ball because of Chuck.

I think most people expect Scola to eventually grow into the starting PF job, given his much superior offensive skills. But let's not get ahead of ourselves -- so far this season, the team has not performed better offensively with Scola on the floor than with Chuck. Their on court team offensive ratings are a statistical wash (actually Scola's is slightly worse).

 

62% vs. 55%, given that Chuck shoots 2.9 time per game, amounts to 0.203 more makes per game. In other words, if Chuck shoots 62%, he would make 1 more shot every 5 games. Not sure that help the Rockets win many games.

If you think 55% is terrible because he only shoots around the basket, let's look at other interior players who shoot infrequently (let's limited the field down to guys who score 10 points or less per 40 minutes. How many actually shoot 62%+? How many even shoots 55%? Does Jeff Foster do that? Does Jason Collin do that? Does Ben Wallace do that? Does Reggie Evans do that?

 

Since I posted stats in this thread, I guess you have me in mind as one of the "frenzied," among others.

1) I believe durvasa already took care of some of your issues, but did you ever stop to think that maybe fouling is part of Hayes' job? I'm not going to bother to explain how fouls might sometimes be desirable.

2) I don't see the relevance of scouts to this discussion. You are saying we need to consider the intangibles with our own two eyes? Ok, I have: he's an asset. Furthermore, the Rockets score a net +6.3 points for every 100 possessions when he is on the floor. That includes his fouls and free throws and allllll the things the scouts from other teams are looking at while the Rockets are scoring that +6.3.

 

I could care less about Ben Wallace. For me, every point count. If Chuck can finish better, than he's more effective as a cutter. Scola's jumpers + layups FG% is so close to Chuck's layups FG% and that's not funny. Sometimes, I could even see Mcgrady swearing in his eyes after Chuck blew wide-open layups. Oh well, I always remind myself that Chuck gets paid only 1.6 mils. - I shouldnt be asking for too much.