[CHRONIC] Watching summer league, waiting for Rockets, free agents to make moves

http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2010/07/watching_summer_league_while_w.html

Now that the silly season is over, and we don't mean the eight days of LeBronnucah or the spectacle in Miami on Friday, it might be time for Rockets free agents Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry to get their turn.

The flow of nutty contracts that have gone out around the league might be just about ready to slow. While the summer free agency madness might have seemed to be about the fawning over LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade and the partnership of the three amigos in Miami, its impact will also be the contracts received by every Darko Milicic and Chris Duhon that hit the market at just the right time.

As an aside, there has been a lot of talk about how the wild spending will weaken the owners' position in collective bargaining. It won't. The players will argue that the spending is an example that the league is healthy and wealthy. The owners, however, will look at the books and the summer spending and it will strengthen their resolve to create a system to better protect them from themselves.

When the players are forced to make concessions, they might be well served to at least get rid of the restricted free agent status that impacts many, which brings us back to Lowry and Scola.

The Rockets have not made them offers since the qualifying offers necessary to keep their rights match offers they should receive. That does not reflect their interest in keeping them.

Teams often wait. Any offer the Rockets give to Lowry or Scola would become a starting point for negotiations with other teams and would guarantee the offer sheets they receive back would be greater.

They likely do not want to lowball offers to get things moving. That does not accomplish much and the qualifying offers sort of serve the same purpose. So they wait at least until the mad money has been doled out and the offers their free agents are likely to receive are more in line with what the Rockets would like to pay.

Scola, however, could be at bat soon. There were rumors for days that the Nets would make an offer to Scola or Tyrus Thomas. They signed Thomas to an offer sheet. The Bobcats quickly declared they would match. New Jersey's attention could shift to Scola, and come in the form of a contract designed to scare off the Rockets.

Daryl Morey has been steadfast in his pledge to match any offer Scola gets, though one would think there are numbers he would not accept. The Nets, however, probably would not offer too many years to a player holding the spot while Derrick Favors develops, particularly if that player fits only at that position.

Among the other cap-space-rich LeBron losers, the Bulls added Carlos Boozer, the Knicks got Amar'e Stoudemire and the Clippers don't count. Minnesota has money, but more fours than it knows what to do with.

As for Lowry, there would be tons of interest among teams looking for point guards, but not among teams willing to wildly overspend. Teams over the cap can only offer mid-level, and might not to a guy that has been a career backup getting regular minutes only for a season and a half. And teams know the Rockets can match the sort of offers they'd be willing to make.

All of which comes back around to Morey's pledge. He said he would match any offer sheets Scola and Lowry get. It might be wise to put that out there, but he also said he has been instructed to match their offers by owner Leslie Alexander, adding that he and Alexander went over the cost of keeping the team together at the trade deadline and Alexander gave his blessing.

One of these days, Morey might get his chance, but for Scola and Lowry, the wait must feel like watching Jim Gray question LeBron about his fingernails.

• • •

The Rockets could not swing the four-team deal for Tyson Chandler when the Heat found a better way to move Michael Beasley's contract. They did, however, show their thinking.

They had said it anyway, but the Rockets showed that they would chase a true backup center, having gone long enough without one, but would not pick up a body just because he can get heads to turn in the hotel lobby. Chandler, yes. Eddy Curry, no way.

Along those lines, Marcin Gortat still seems an attractive option. The Rockets did not want to give him full mid-level last summer and the Magic matched the Mavericks' offer anyway. But the thinking at the time was that the Magic would pay that much for the backup to their best player for just a year.

Their payroll has swelled to the second-largest in the NBA and potentially soon to pass the Lakers to be the largest (including the second-highest paid player, Rashard Lewis.) They might be ready to move Gortat and if it comes with an exchange of contracts, the Rockets would seem much more ready to take on the four years, $29 million left on Gortat's deal.

The problem with that is that they would not be saving Orlando anything unless they found a third team, a team with cap space, to stash the player from the Rockets (let's say, Jared Jeffries.) As ridiculous as some of the contracts have been this summer, it is not terribly likely anyone will want to take on the $6.9 million owed Jeffries next season.

Andris Biedrins would make sense, with the Warriors watching the bottom line more closely. (They are not going to match the Nets' offer shoot to Anthony Morrow.) But he has three years, $27 million left on his contract and the Rockets probably would not overpay long-term. Chandler would have just been overpaid for year.

If the Mavericks ever get around to trading Erick Dampier, Dampier could soon be a free agent. Dallas has chased Al Jefferson and if the Timberwolves made the move for Dampier, they could cut Dampier's non-guaranteed contract and save $13 million. That would make Dampier a free agent likely to receive far more modest, backup center money.

As for Jefferson, an offer of Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries does not seem likely to be sufficient. The Timberwolves would not have saved anything and getting one-year veteran help only works if you have a team ready to do something in that one year. If Minnesota GM David Kahn absolutely loved one of the Rockets' young prospects — most likely Chase Budinger or Jermaine Taylor since the Wolves have added young bigs lately — there might be something to talk about, but he didn't love them enough to draft them.

As for free agents, the list is not inspiring. Shaquille O'Neal is not likely to sign on to watch Yao Ming start and finish games. After that, you're looking at Joe Smith, DJ Mbenga, Josh Powell, Sean Marks, Rasho Nesterovic, Etan Thomas and Fabricio Oberto. Might be better to take a flier on younger prospects such as Earl Barron or Ian Mahinmi.

This would seem to explain why the Rockets reached out to Brad Miller and if they can't land him, will keep chasing a trade.

• • •

Through their two-a-days and summer league opener, the Rockets almost look too good to really gauge what they've got. Jermaine Taylor, Budinger and Maarty Leunen are pros now and they play like it. They will have ups and downs (with Taylor putting up an easy 25-point opener) and downs (with Budinger struggling with his shot in the past week and in the opener), but they know what they're doing in a league in which most of the players are trying to find out.

Taylor, however, does look like he will absolutely challenge for playing time. A lot might depend on how his tweaked outside shot clicks when he is in a more catch-and-shoot role than he plays with the summer league team. But he always was crafty with the ball in his hands, is an outstanding athlete and showed late last season he might have potential defensively.

Patrick Patterson looks like a veteran already. The Rockets did not break as they hope to during the season, especially off the bench, but he runs the floor well. He hit all eight of his shots after his airball early, sinking both 3s he put up, and not only got the shots to fall, showed a smooth, easy stroke that made them look far from a fluke.

Leunen, by the way, is ready, at least with the strengths of his game. It is difficult to tell here whether he can handle the load defensively and on the boards. But a year in a good league and as a featured player has given him an even greater feel for how to make his game work. He signed for another year in Italy, but has a very good chance to be a useful NBA role player.