I would still say the spurs even if the Rockets get the #1 seed, because with a champion you have to put the fire out. And also that road could be quickly turn back to the Spurs.
I agree you have to pick the Spurs out of the West because they are the defending champs and have added 3 key NEW players to their roster. Our team hasn't done anything, and even if we end up the #1 seed, we still have to see how our team will hold up under playoff basketball conditions. But I think there is way too much love for the Spurs. One national writer even said they are a lock. Partially because of my contrarian nature, I don't think they will repeat as champions. Somebody or something will derail them. I also think Duncan is showing just a wee bit of wear on the tires. I hope the team that beats them in the playoffs is us.
We haven't proven squat. I kinda like JVG's "the glass is half empty" approach. It beats glossing over the cold hard facts that some other coaches have done before.