Go back to 2008, 2009, 2010, when we didn't have a defense that generated sacks and turnovers. We ranked high in passing on 3rd downs and completions. Step away for a second and put it in game planning perspective...could it be, that now that, that we indeed have an awesome defense...kubiak trusts the defense? (insert jackie chan image) The fact that kubiak trusts his defense is admirable. Throwing 560+ attempts a season are over. what does it get you anyway ? a one and done, or maybe a 6-10 record..like this loser...http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/2008.htm I think some people in town, in order to not look like an arse, will never give any credit to the coaches/players that they originally were wrong about.
wow. So you're saying that if your QB is Ryan Leaf after throwing 3 interceptions in a game and your RB is Barry Sanders gaining 7 ypc in the same game you'll always pass on 3rd and 8? OK. If his defense is whooping on the opponent's offence, what is wrong with that strategy? It's the same as going for it on 4th down from the opponent's 40 yd line. If the other team's offence is horrible, you're better punting the ball and letting your defence go to work. However if you're playing an offence like the Patriots' and your defence is getting dominated, I'm going for it. 3rd down percentage INCLUDES 3rd and long so it is relevant. Speaking of Rodgers getting sacked, how many times did they LOSE yards on 3rd and long while trying to pass when the outcome would have been better if they ran and gained positive yardage?
I find all this talk silly. Nitpicking because of the occasional 3rd and long draw against a team who is not only winning games, but is 2nd in the league for points scored by average. I know some people are stubborn and like to complain just for complaining's sake, but this is too much
Wow... Have you failed to read when I've stated that Schaub is one of the smartest quarterbacks and that I wouldn't do this with Vick or Sanchez. Seems like you guys are arguing for the sake of arguing. And I've asked this a few times for those that are defending Kubiak. If he isn't the best coach, then what do you find wrong with his coaching? There should be room for improvement, correct? So what can he do better? I know there isn't much, but that's why I'm calling out his 3rd down runs... Bc i don't think Kubiak is perfect and if I had to choose an area where he could improve, it would be his play calling.
this year it's the lack of screens for Foster. It seems it's been completely abandoned from his playbook. and i don't think screens should only be thrown on 3rd downs. utilize the play on 1st or 2nd and short which should catch the defense off guard. and i still don't like that he's so rigid with the play calls. give Schaub some free reign to call his own audibles. but hey, the Texans move down the field just fine so can't really complain.
Considering Im pretty much the only person talking about this topic...Im guessing you are referring to me? Since youve had time to look up all the stats from 2008, 2009, and 2010...please go back and look at my posting history regarding Kubiak. Thanks.
That's a good call...I do think, or at least hope, that he's saving this aspect of the offense for later on, when the games really count. Throwing the defense off guard in the playoffs. I do think he needs to get Foster the ball in the passing game though, if for no other reason than to help out my fantasy team.
He said something about this earlier this week or last basically saying that the TEs have taken over that aspect of the short passing game. He is trying to save Foster for mainly carries..... On one hand you lose the homerun ability of that play like we've seen in the past, on the other Foster can carry the ball 15 more times this season?
rezdawg, how much longer are you going to ignore my earlier post about run/pass third-and-longs are generally converted at roughly the same (low) rate? It's a low percentage play. But a run not only has the chance of catching a defense off-guard, it minimizes the number of bad things that can happen.
Well, I showed you the Texans results this season on 3rd and long situations. It really doesnt matter to me what the averages for those situations are because Oakland passing the ball on 3rd and long...or Tennessee passing the ball on 3rd and long has nothing to do with how Houston would perform on 3rd and long. The Texans have had about 37 third and long situations this season. They have run 11 times. On those 11 runs, they have ended up punting 11 times to finish out the drive. They have passed the ball 26 times. Out of those passes, they have eventually scored 3 FGs and 3 TDs. That is 30 points that were put up on the board as a result of passing and extending the drive. Basically, for every pass attempt on 3rd and long, it eventually led to more than 1 point. Also, the Texans dont necessarily need to convert a 3rd and long on pass play for it to be successful. Do you know how many times this season the Texans have had 3rd and 8+ and had a completion of 7-10 yards, but not received the first down? Its happened a good amount of time....and in those situations, the clock keeps running and we gain better field position for the punt. So, to answer your question, my point stands. My preference is to pass on 3rd and long because, as the Texans have shown this season, running the ball has gotten them nowhere, whereas passing the ball has added 30 points (almost 4 points per game) to our total.
They're doing it 70% of the time, rezdawg - that's an overwhelming # given its a run-first team with a conservative coach. You have no reason to even remotely complain. If you estimate... 70 plays/game, you're litterally basing your complaint on 1% of their total offensive plays this year - that's troll territory.
Or, you can look at it that they run the ball on 3rd and long approximately 30% of the time....that's too many. Edit: BTW, I have no idea why you'd even mention the 70 plays per game as that has nothing to do with 3rd and long situations. Based on the success the Texans have had on passing on 3rd and long situations...and the incredible lack of success they have had on running the ball on 3rd and long situations....its almost silly to even consider running the ball 1/3 of the time when you are in a 3rd and long spot.
what false information, did I show, according to ESPN link: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/gb/type/rushing/green-bay-packers they say: Down = 3 To Go 8-10 ATT = 2 YDS = 15 Down = 3 To Go 11+ ATT = 5 YDS = 10 In other words, 3rd down and more than 8 yards to go, they have 7 running plays. Chicago in 3rd down and 8+ yds to go, they have 10 running plays San Francisco in 3rd down and 8+ yds to go they have 14 running plays. New England in 3rd down and 8+ plays have 6 running plays. It seems you ignored my previous post, so I repeated the numbers, so you can see them again.
Those numbers for the Packers are off...I went play by play through every game they have played. They ran the ball one time with Kahn, which ended up costing them the game...and they ran the ball with Cobb with a 14 point lead and a few minutes left in the 4th. They may have other plays on 3rd and long that were called pass plays, but Rodgers scrambled the pocket and ended up running. It was still a called pass play. Im not sure where the 7 comes from. I'll assume if those numbers are off, then the others are off as well. I dont have time, nor do I care enough, to go through every play the Patriots, Niners, and Bears have played. But, if we're gonna use those numbers...Niners and Bears have done nothing as far as winning in the playoffs...check out the Steelers...4 rush plays. Check out the Ravens, 2 rush plays...check out the Saints, zero rush plays....check out the Giants, 3 times. Basically, any team that has done anything in the postseason, has shown that they avoid running the ball on 3rd and long. Look up the games and you'll see that the majority of these few times that these teams run on 3rd and long, it will come at the end of games, when its acceptable to do so. In conclusion, the Texans 11 rush attempts on 3rd and long is equal to the Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Saints, and Giants combined! I rest my case...we run the ball too often on 3rd and long.
We run the ball on 3rd and long because we have an average QB and because Kubiak is ultra conservative who is more afraid of making mistakes than he is concerned about winning a game. Kubiak is happy no matter what the result of the game so long as we don't turn the ball over, he doesn't take risks and he has limited faith in his players to make big plays for him when needed. I'm still haven't seen a character defining win for the team yet, we haven't proven that we can come from behind against a solid team, which has always been a problem for us under Kubiak/Schaub regime. Bottom line, if we want to win the SB we better hope and pray that we can establish the lead early in every postseason game. If we go down two TD's to a team like Denver then I see Schaub turning into Tony Romo.
i think rezdawg's criticism about kubiak's 3rd and long plays is ridiculous but rezdawg is correct. GB has only run one run play in that situation. i know because i did go through all GB's play by play a couple of days ago.
That's because we've only been behind by more than 3 points in 1 game this season. According to your logic, this is a bad thing. Ooooooooookay........ Unbelievable. I'm kind of glad this place wasn't around during the Rockets championship years. People would have discounted sweeping Orlando to win our 2nd straight championship because we were never behind in the series.
I can absolutely, positively guarantee that Kubiak is not always "happy" regardless of the result of the game. He continually expresses displeasure with some aspect of a victory and NO coach is happy after a meaningful loss. For you to say otherwise is ridiculous and an insult to coaches.
Throwing it every time on third-and-long gives the defense a pretty decent idea what to expect on the next third-and-long. Look, I get it - you've dug in so deep, you can't let go - we've all been there. But to be crying over 11 plays out of approximately 560 - as a means to define a coach - is boderline, if not full-blown trolling. I have issues with Kubiak, too; I don't let them impact my overall appreciation for the many, many things he does very, very well as a head coach. Most notably, right now: winning a lot of games.
