Chron: Not trading Lidge, Vote o Confidence for Purp and Gar

I just think some people are misinterpreting media quotes with what is really going on. I mean, do you really think if they Astros were getting legitimate, bonafide offers for a stud AA or AAA player for Brad Lidge they wouldn't listen?? Of course they would. Giving a vote of confidence to the media is just what it is.. its just fluff. I'm sure they are confident in him (at least sort of).. but if they got an offer that is worth squat, they'd move him.

If you have a player that has potential but has bottomed out, what is the point in moving him just for the sakes of trading him, especially for a mediocre player? I think we can all agree this is about the worst Lidge can get (this season). He can pretty much only get better. That doesn't mean we should keep him because of that. But it does mean he is essentially like a prospect with high potential. What is the point of trading a guy that can potentially be much better for some schmuck in another organization, just for the sakes of trading him.

 

He wants to stay here the rest of his career, and the Astros will have the finances to make that happen. So, I'm not worried about free agency. I understand closers on losing teams are unnecessary, but closers on winning teams are necessary, and he's still likely to be in the prime of his career by whenever this team is ready to contend again. If you let Lidge go, you'll have to pay major bucks to find a replacement in free agency... I'd just as soon keep him (unless the offer is overwhelming) and allocate that money to another position. (Yes, I recognize you'd have to pay similar money to re-sign Lidge... but Lidge is probably better than what's on the market as well.)

 

Huh? His ERA is 2.15, BAA is .201, WHIP 1.19... worst he can get?!?

 

The GM runs the draft...buck stops here & all that. He gets mucho input from the scouting guys, but the decisions are his in the end.

Dir. Development deals with the players in the system: his role at draft time is, in essence: here's what's in our system talentwise, strengths/weaknesses, here's the timetable for these guys, here's where we need additional talent in the upper ranks, here's where we think we'll need additional talent in 3-4 years, developmentally.

Again, the GM runs the draft. The entire scouting department (college/HS/Intl) answers to the Scouting Director, who answers directly to the GM. Development has little to do with the draft, the focus is on the players once they're acquired.

I fail to see how the thread you linked contradicts anything I've said here.

 

OK, but he's only pitched 37 innings this year because of injuries. So you know that other teams are offering things for him, but aren't offering the entire farm for him, and are using that as a major reason. Plus, since he's pitched so few innings, he just got his ERA under 4.00 mid-May, pitched for a while, then went on the DL. His numbers are very flexible since he has pitched so little. So there is more than just his stats on the surface. Not to mention he couldn't keep his closer job while fighting off Dan Wheeler, who I love and any Astros fans respect... but around the league, its still seen as Lidge couldn't hold off Dan Wheeler. Plus, the whole "Lidge has a messed up head" thing after the Pujols homer (which I think is a load of crock BTW).

Just last year he had an ERA over 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.40.. not exactly inspiring. I'm not hating on the guy, my only point is he hasn't exactly been stellar over this recent time span. So therefore you know other teams are using these as "excuses" as to why they won't offer Stud AAA Player #1 for Lidge.

 

I assume he's referring to this:

now:

Also, the current lack of talent in the Astros Minor Leagues lays squarely at the foot of Gerry (with the help of some scouting people since fired), who oversaw the horrid drafts from '99-'03.

then:


Tim Purpura is just as responsible, arguably moreso, for the state of the 'Stros organization top to bottom.

 

So, assuming we keep Lidge, how do we improve all of the other holes on this team in order to make it a winning team in the next couple of years? He's by far our biggest asset via trade (unless we completely blow up the team), and we know we're not going to go out and splash tons of money on all our positions of need (3B, C, OF, 2B, SP). And we don't have anyone (other than Patton, and possibly Brad James) who will come up from the minors and fill these needs in the next few years.

I'm not saying trade Lidge for anything we can get, but I truly believe that a contender will offer a top prospect for him come the deadline. I just believe that given the hand we're holding now, trading Lidge may be our best chance to get some young talent on this team. It also frees up the big money we'll have to pay him next offseason for top level free agent that fills a need. I'm just not in favor of keeping a dominant closer (if he gets back to that level) on a team that more than likely is not going to contend for at least another couple of years.

Finally, you mentioned paying big money for a closer to replace him once we start winning again. I'd rather worry about that once we're actually a contender again. And if Samuel Gervacio continues his development, we just might have a closer waiting in the wings. He's still a couple of years away, but he's been "Lights Out" last year at Lexington and this year at Salem.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/...&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=463645oppurtunity

 

Exactly.

Back then people insisted that Tim Purpura would be just as good or very close to Hunsicker because he was involved in all facets of the decision-making process.

Now the same folks are making either making excuses for Purpura or laying the blame on Hunsicker.

If you searched the old threads Im sure there are a ton that praise the Astros minor league system and why Purpura was responsible for the talent.

If the Astros minor league system was praised back then, how and why have those same players now failed to be impact players? Misjudgment of talent for some, perhaps lack of development in the minors for others.

From Feb 7, 2007 Baseball America:

It's a different story now (2007). Houston was Baseball America's Organization of the Year in 2001, when we ranked their minor league talent the third-best in the game. The Astros system hasn't rated higher than 20th since—it currently checks in at No. 22—so owner Drayton McLane has opened his wallet to sustain the winning.

 

Gammons just reported that there were numerous scouts at the games in DC. They were not impressed with Jennings. They clocked the fastball no faster than 87 and his pitches did not sink.

TERRIBLE!!!

 

Those aren't his numbers as a closer which is where his value lies. You're terrible with these evaluations.

BTW, the Astros almost always have home grown closers. Lidge, Wagner, Dotel, Todd Jones, John Hudek, Dave Smith. They're not going to spend $10 a year on a free agent closer.

The combination of the state of the team, the interest in the league, and Lidge's current value mandate that we shop him for the best crop of prospects/players we can get. If we can get at least two high quality players or prospects that can fill the various huge holes all over the roster then we need to get it done. Some of you are acting like this is a good team just having a down year or something. It's not. It's a bad team and it's not going to turn around unless we add significant talent at more important positions than closer. Trading Lidge is one way we can accomplish this.

 

Don't forget Dave Smith's predecessor - Joe Sambito.

 

I'm terrible with "these" evaluations? What others are you referring to?

First, anyone who thinks his numbers are going to dramatically decrease simply because it's the ninth inning instead of the eighth inning understands little about baseball and comes from the ESPN school of drama queens. Pitches are pitches, and hitters are hitters. It doesn't suddenly change based on the inning.

The Astros have consistently had home grown closers because they're consistently done a superb job of having elite bullpen talent within the farm system ready for promotion. It's different this time, and that's what I'm stressing. There is no Lidge or Dotel waiting in the wings like there was when Wagner was dealt. I'm hopeful that Gervacio can turn into that, but that's a long, long way away.

The Astros aren't going to deal one of the best relievers in the game with a bullpen as thin as theirs without an overwhelming offer. If you disagree, I'm not sure why, but I'm pretty certain it's not going to happen.

 

But it's been almost four years! Purpura helped form that organization as much or more than Hunsicker, according to the statement. The *current* lack of talent, four years later, according to the statement, is due to bad drafts by Hunsicker--drafts in which Purpura took no part whatsoever.

Disagree with it all you like, and I'm not saying the argument is bulletproof, but I'm not sold that it's so heinously incongruous.

 

So, a pace for 65 innings is bad?

No, you don't. You don't know one thing about what teams are offering for Lidge, if they've offered anything at all.

You *do* realize that ERA's *soar* with fewer innings and are more difficult to bring down, don't you?

Yes, but not made up BS about "heart" or "mentality". How about his mechanics which are solid? How about how his slider has that nice nasty bite to it but is rarely in the dirt anymore and looks deceptively like his fastball again, which is once again keeping hitters from sitting dead-red on his fastball? You don't drop your ERA several *POINTS* on accident you know.

Have you asked around the league? I'd speculate that this is *not* the prevailing opinion "around the league".

Agreed! So why bring it up? Do you believe Major League franchises are dumb enough to buy that crap if you I don't even buy it?

And just the year before that what did he do? What about before then? Before that even? His mechanics and his pitches look like they did back then--and voila--so do his numbers. It's not about some mystical "magic" or "mojo" that is now mysteriously "gone", as some have droned on.

I disagree, and so do the numbers, and so does any knowledgeable and objective evaluation of his form, his pitches, and his results.

No, you don't. It's a logical error to project what we would think onto a team, for two reasons among many others:
--Everyone doesn't think like you and me. In fact, you and I don't even think alike!
--Major League franchises *certainly* won't think like you and me, because they have infinitely more resources and information at their disposal with which to formulate evaluations and strategies.

Look, where there's smoke, there's fire. As dumb as mediots are, when this many are talking, it's because teams have been inquiring.

 

Ah...well, that *was* a pretty ****ing stupid thing to say.

RIET: I don't see how acknowledging the *fact* that the Astros drafts for a 5 year period - run by Hun but not solely his fault by a longshot - are what have crippled the Astros talent pool...I don't see how this is somehow a sacrilegious affront to Gerry's legacy in Houston. It just is what it is.

Here's a list of the Astros' draftees from '99-03 who have made the bigs or have a chance to make some sort of meaningful contribution:

'03: Jason Hirsh, Jimmy Barthmeier (in danger of getting demoted back to A-ball); Drew Stubbs? We'll see.

'02: Mark McLemore, Mitch Talbot.

'01: Chris Burke; Kirk Saarloos; Lance Cormier; Matt Albers.

'00: Chad Qualls; Eric Bruntlett.

'99: Mike Gallo; Jason Lane; Chris Sampson.

That's it, in over 200 draft picks. That. You would be hard pressed to find a larger collection of suck over a recent 5 year period in any other MLB organisation.

 

So what exactly is your point? I'm not asking that in a smart ass tone either.. I really don't understand if you are arguing for his trade or to keep him. All I was pointing out was that there are reasons that we are most likely not trading him at this point. If we were getting decent prospects in return, he'd be moved. He would be moved for several reasons - we don't need a closer since the team has been bad, Wheeler has proven he is at least adequate and we have some minor leaguers that can step in, the fans have lost confidence in him (which is important to a team as a franchise), and a change of scenery would probably do him wonders. Plus once his contract is up, its questionable whether he'd be resigned because of all his problems, such as not being able to hold his job.. so almost any GM will trade a player that he thinks he'll get nothing for when he loses him to FA.

I pointed out the innings to show his ERA is only over a small sample size. Not only this, I ALSO pointed out what his ERA was last year to provide a larger sample size over a recent time period. For closers, its about what have you done for me lately, not what are your career numbers. And yes, its clear that teams are going to use all these reasons that have been listed as a reason to warrant not giving up a top AAA or AA stud player for Lidge. It doesn't take a genius to know that. Sure you can use the "well you don't know" argument, because its convenient.. but c'mon, its common sense.

Plus, no one is saying that no one is inquiring about Lidge. Obviously teams are asking about hiim, no one is denying that. Its just doubtful we are getting any worthy offers for him, otherwise he'd be gone. He has too much potential to be let go for some Joe Blow minor leaguer that doesn't have a high ceiling.

 

Did that from memory, and I'm pretty sure I left out a few cup o' coffee guys - Mike Burns, Todd Self, Phil Barzilla.

 

My point is that you're making a lot of assumptions about the value Major League franchises place on Brad Lidge, and IMO you're doing based upon a faulty evaluation of where he stands right now.

I'm with the bunch here that say keep him unless the offer is significant--two ML ready prospects and some change.

I'd speculate that the reason is that the deadline is still a couple weeks away and teams haven't amped up any offers. Additionally, no team might be desperate enough to offer what it would take to get Brad Lidge.

See, all this is your opinion. I don't agree with hardly any of it. What makes you think a club with far more knowledge would think the way you do? I certainly don't have those delusions of grandeur.

37 innings halfway through a season, for a reliever, ain't small.

And I pointed out what actually matters--the VAST difference in how he's ACTUALLY pitching (been watching?) between last year and these past couple months.

Well, even if I agreed with that, it'd still be moot because "lately" he's had a good WHIP, great ERA, his slider is accurate and with great movement, and hitters can't sit on his fastball. He's getting guys out and not allowing runs. Good God man, what more do you want from him??

No, it's not clear. It certainly doesn't take a genius to know that--but it *does* take an armchair GM with an opinion to *speculate* that.

No, it's your opinion. Your opinion isn't far-fetched or ridiculous or anything, but it's still your opinion. Unless you've actually talked to those guys. I don't agree with your opinion--I believe teams have a higher value on Lidge. That doesn't mean they're willing to part with said value, but my speculation has as little value as yours or anyone else's. Even if I do think I'm right.

On this point we agree.

 

Same thing I saw at RR earlier this year, the guy is just not anything more than a 4 or 5 starter....

DD

 

We paid a very expensive price for him. We paid for a #2 pitcher.