It's not a BS cop-out at all. I don't take the 35% reduction that Stern put out there as what to expect for the new cap, but I think 15-20% is more likely. In the current market, fair value for a starting PG w/ AB's production (including both offense and defense) is probably around 7-8mil. If the new CBA calls for a 15% reduction in the cap and maybe a decrease in the number of guaranteed years, that means all new contracts will be pushed down by a minimum of 15% (since current rosters are based on the higher cap and it'll take some extra deflation to get down to the new cap over a couple years). That means by signing him fair value in this market, we're paying at least a 15% premium over what we pay in the new CBA market. Given the already 6 mil going to Lowry, it seems pretty hard to justify throwing 7-8 mil right now at a guy that hasn't proven himself as a serviceable defender. That's potentially 14 mil for a position where you always have to think about covering up for a weakness (one can't shoot from deep and the other can't defend). That really hamstrings us going forward post CBA. I honestly think that while AB adds a lot on offense, we can give up some of his offense for someone who may be less of a threat offensively, but more of a complete player. We've got plenty of offensive weapons already (Scola, Martin, Yao, Bud, Lee), but fewer serviceable defenders, which is where we're really hurting. The marginal contribution of a good defender on this team would be significantly higher than the marginal contribution of a good offensive player like AB. I guarantee Morey has estimated the AB's net contribution vis-a-vis cheaper options with worse offense, but better defense than AB. I love the current guys on the team, but I think people need to stop being so sentimental about the current roster so we don't end up w/ a bunch of overvalued contracts that hamstrings our ability going forward if Yao doesn't work out and we have to rebuild or retool. Is it good for morale this year for the starting PG to worry about the uncertainty? No. But AB also seems to understand that he can bump his value up by proving that he can play D and can be a playmaking distributor in a Yao-centered offense. That's a pretty powerful motivator--rather than letting the guy get the big contract a year earlier than he needs to and getting comfortable, leading to a post-contract year drop-off. Incentives are important to any good management strategy.
What Ronny is referring to is the stats that the Rockets front office look at -- which actually reflects the non-stats stuff that coaches/scouts tend to appreciate. In the case of Battier and Hayes, they've gotten playing time under two coaching regimes. This season Adelman has options to play in front of them, but they continue to be core rotation players. Like you say, its not because of their stat sheet. They bring something else to the table -- something coaches appreciate more than most fans -- and something Morey and his staff saw when they dug a little deeper into the data they had at their disposal. Its not so much about overvaluing stats, but rather putting value in the "intangibles" that coaches believes win ball games. Maybe you could say the Rockets overvalue that, but then that's a front office and coaching issue.
I agree with this 100%. There are certain aspects of business that have nothing to do with statistics. Bean counters are the scourge of making -SMART- HR decisions.
I know; I don't get this either. I suppose the argument is that the earlier you sign an up-and-coming player, the cheaper it is. We could say that Scola exploded in the last few months after Landry was traded, and that he was playing for a contract the rest of the season ... higher than what he would have gotten prior to getting so many mpg after Landry was traded. But in the end, the argument that Morey did poorly based on arguably overpaying is offset by what he achieved in waiting out Carl Landry. To me, it's not clear that Scola/Lowry got overpaid, but Landry definitely signed a low contract. One thing is for sure, negotiations (or lack thereof) did not affect the play of any of the three. So, clearly Morey's goal is to work the restricted FA rules to his advantage, including mid-season trades. I think he did fine. And will do again.
Better safe than sorry. If you sign them early, you could either overpay them or lock them up for cheap. If you let the market determine the price, the worst that could come is paying them what they're worth. I don't think for one second that Morey overpayed Scola or Lowry. If you look at the contracts being given out, we got a bargain.
That's why Morey needs to work on two things: beat the market by his model and people management to make the player and his boss to accept his number. See the market and wait for the phone call from the boss? I can do it too.
I understand the let the market set approach, but when you have a team that give out contracts like the raiders, it messes the market up. When johnson and darko got their deals, it drove up the cost of scola. When cleveland got the money from snt,they frove up lowry's money. The spurs couldve waited on parker and manu,but they didnt. To be honest, Ive never heard of the backup getting a bigger deal than the current starter no matter the years.
How prominent was Landry in the league when we offered him an extension? If I recall correctly, the bobcats offered him a cheap contract, which we matched within a day. The problem with Brooks is he could be demanding more than the market price. Winning the MIP is both a good and bad thing for the Rockets. Good in the sense that his trade value sky rocketed, bad in the sense that we cannot keep him for cheap. If we are good enough to contend for the championship, then extending Brooks contract before the deadline would be the plausible option. However, since we are not good enough to compete against the big dogs yet, using Brooks as a tradebait for a superstar is a more viable move than keeping him. We aren't going anywhere with this current roster, and we aren't guaranteed to keep Brooks for cheap (if at all). In a sense, we might as well get quality in return rather than risk losing everything or overpaying everything.
Remember this guy playing back-up PF with Yao Ming starting? Or this guy coming off the bench for the first half of his rookie year with Chuck Hayes starting? Or, in 2008/09 and 2009/10, this guy was coming off the bench making $1.16 mil and $2.03 million, respectively, while the starting PG of the Rockets was making $1.04 and $1.12 million, respectively, in these two years.
Or um, practically any starter still on his rookie scale. Which is exactly AB's situation. But yes, this is not the first time in NBA history.
CH, cato was not signed in 2003 season and given his deal. He was signed as the heir to dream in 99 or 2000. Scola was making 3m per and landry was signed for about that much after his 1yr rookie deal. He wasnt making 3 times scola money.
AB should have have gotten an extension. Now we lose him for Free and he torture us by having a 1hour special on where he will go.
So, it's not just "backup getting bigger deal than starter," you have to narrow it down to "backup getting a bigger deal that's newly signed and that is several times bigger than the starter." I believe Portland's Batum is making much less than newly signed bench player Wesley Matthews because Batum is still on a rookie deal. I don't thinik Nick Batum is causing his team to be 0-3, is he?
Not that I want to see AB go. But IF we do lose him, I seriously doubt there will be many people watching the 1h special, except a few DDs maybe.
He's restricted so if we choose to match an outside offer, we get to keep him. That means, even if we don't really want to keep him, we can sign and trade him.
Nope, it means that if he is signed all we can do is match, our options are limited...as I explained earlier in this thread. DD
Thanks, you just reiterated my point. If we match, he is back with us. And if we wish to trade him for someone else, we can. Hence a S&T. The guy was afraid that we would give him up for free, which will not happen due to his status as a RFA. It's different if he's unrestricted.
Ah, but if we match we are restricted for an entire year, as AB has veto power over any trade Morey might attempt. DD
