http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1415&sid=fe86aa69e779b82320b30e375fa34d5a Here's a good discussion on the DCS rating. Don't make those claims that I don't understand the statistics I use.
And being able to get wide open and finish is a skill. It's non-sensical to punish Haslem because he can dunk where Chucky can't. And the Heat were a poorer offensive team but a better defensive team when Antoine Walker was on the floor. Clearly, Toine is a boon to the defense but a liability on offense. Per 48 minutes, it was 106.3 to 106.1. 2/10ths of a point. On offense, it was 107.3 to 103.7 -- 3.6 points. Taking one year of data is not worth all that much- especially considering how rarely the Heat were playing at full strength. If you go back to 05/06, the Heat offense scored 112.1 with Haslem compared to 106.8 without. Meanwhile, the defense lost a step from 105.3 points allowed with Haslem to 106.3 without. Further, Haslem shot .665 from close, and .719 from inside. All while being the starting power forward for the NBA champion. There are many dimensions in which Haslem doesn't make sense. Finishing ability and defense are not among them.
What you took was one year of data from his best season, and what I took was one year of data from his most recent season. I never claimed that Hayes was just as good as Haslem on offense, I'm just saying Haslem is only marginally better than Hayes. Hayes is clearly superior to Haslem on defense. Man, I now just wish I said "Forget Haslem. We already have Scola and Hayes." I just had to throw out evidence. I like how you argue a lot better than 90% of the people, you're actually using stone cold data and I appreciate that.
Again, tell me why you want to use this statistical rating to be a litmus test for defensive players. You say you don't want to just go by the "name" players, fine. But are you seriously going to tell me that Tyrus Thomas is a better defender than Marcus Camby? That Robert Horry is better than Kevin Garnett? Because that's what Nichols' findings tells us. If you perfectly understand the statistics on this page, then you apparently can tell me who is the better defender and THE PLAYER THAT YOU WOULD WANT ON YOUR TEAM--Ron Artest with a rating of 89 or Anderson Varejao at 97.
I'm not saying it's a litmus test! It's just a good stat to show how far off Hayes is better than Haslem on defense! And YES, Tyrus Thomas is better than Camby on defense. BUT OH NO! HE'S THE DPOY! I'm not just saying that because of the DCS, I'm considering other stats like stoppage rate. Like I said earlier (I think, it might've been on realgm), the DCS's faults becomes apparent when comparing different positions or players with ratings close to each other but a difference of 91 to 39 is more than enough to warrant that the former player is a better defender. Oh yeah, strictly statistically, I'd much rather have Varejao (rebounder, defender) than Artest (we already have a defender just as good as him at the position, Battier, and he's an absolute black hole on offense). But I freaking hate Varejao for flopping.
Great arguments, DS, but please leave James out of this particular trade! Just because we got Francis doesn't make me want to lose James. Not to keep Alston. I'd much rather move Alston. I know... James just sort of popped into the discussion, but I personally wouldn't do this deal if it's James instead of Alston.
The Clippers and the Heat really need help at point guard. Morey has to be talking to these two teams.
My goodness, we would be the odds on favorite for the championship if Haslem was here. By far the most talented team in the NBA. Morey would be a god.
The only reason I see this happening is because they're in the East and didn't win a playoff game last year. They need a PG and don't have time to worry about how much better they're making a Western Conference team in the process. Especially one that hasn't been out of the first round in a decade.
KevC, its good you are using statistics to support your claim. Many around here to underestimate Chuck Hayes and his rebounding and defensive contributions. And he is a better offensive power forward than say Jeff Foster, who others are throwing around and I think is a weak idea given we can resign Hayes and Deke for probably cheaper. That said I think you underestimate the toll and impact from MPG differences. Hayes, in his highest year, just hit 22MPG in a part time role. Haslem has been a consistent starter playing over 30MPG and typically the 3rd leading minute gobbler of the Heat. This helps Hayes in two ways. One Hayes doesn't have to play tired--can always go all out. Two, Hayes isn't the same target for scouting and looking for all areas to exploit. Haslem would likely show better numbers per minute (particularly effort stats like boards and defense) if minutes were brought down, Hayes likely could not sustain his pace at 30+ with full attention by other teams. Further IMO you are missing the bigger trends. Statistically we are weakest (by far) in various offensive metrics--FG%, total production, efficiency, etc. Tmac or someone else may say "we need a PF to just board and defend", but statistics show this doesn't map with our areas of weakness compared to other elite teams. Also, this is based on a whole lot more events than individual player metrics from one year. That is where we have the most room for improvement. Players who won't result in defensive/rebounding slippage much while majorly improving our offensive efficiency are who we should look to. Plugging in James and Haslem for Alston, Hayes and Howard gives us exactly this, potentially large leaps in offensive team efficiency while maintaining, or at most very modest losses, in team defense and rebounding. Now what Scola, Francis and Brooks does would be a huge bonus, but we they are harder to predict because we don't have any or as much NBA data from the last 2 years (plus Francis was in weird situations).
How about: Head + Snyder + Lucas + Alston = Dorrell Wright + Haslem http://games.espn.go.com/nba/featur...423~11~2763~2866~2445&teams=10~10~14~14~14~14
I still think it's pointless comparing the two, if Alston and Head get Haslem, Chuck stays on the team and more options are open, which I hope we all agree is what the Rockets should have.
You can say that about any rookie coming into the NBA. If we had gotten a highly touted rookie wouldn't you be excited about his contributions? The only difference between a normal rookie and Scola is that he played overses.
