Well the truth of the matter is you are speculating so there's really no reason to arrgue w/ you why Morey isn't the right GM for this team period!
I disagree very strongly with this part of your statement. The most, most crucial aspect of applying statistical analysis to anything is the knowledge of when to do it, how to do it, and how to interpret the results. Oh, and then the little matter of translating the results into actionable basketball strategy and tactics. The jury is still out on $ball in basketball. It definitely does not carry the same weight as an individual-stats driven game like baseball, but that hardly means it does not have value. Surely it can't hurt to be informed? Having a self proclaimed "lifelong basketball fan" like Morey do the number crunching is very different than bringing in some economic analyst from the federal reserve. Give the man a chance. In a few years, lets come back to this.
Yeah, if you can't make a good argument, mock the person you are arguing against. I am done with you.
http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2008/02/read_the_daryl_morey_chat_tran.html http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/5551107.html Adelman: IMO Rockets want to make a trade but don't have the assets to get one done.
Extensive statistical analysis is used in all sorts of fields, including business decision making. It would seem to me to be a good match for sports, where all sorts of data is tracked and people (coaches, GMs, owners) have been making decisions based on that data. So that's why I find it interesting. And by "good feel for numbers", I meant "good feel for interpreting what the numbers convey". That requires human input, and it is what Morey specializes in. Moreover, I see no evidence that being an experienced "basketball person" is either sufficient or necessary to being a good general manager. It's not like Morey doesn't interact with his coaches and scouts.
So are you. You are assuming that Morey will have a similar success rate. I am arguing that a stats GM is not right for any team. It's not about Morey and it's not about the Rockets.
I agree with you. I am saying there is no proof that such statistical analysis translates into sucessful strategy or wins. I believe the reason it that while it may be helpful, it certainly does not give you an advantage over someone else. Any team can choose to apply this "science" to basketball. However, no one can make Morey understand the nuances of basketball.
Oh please. Like you are not eminently mockable for saying: (1) you can get a computer to do what Morey does, then (2) when questioned, brought up the fact that you have a "business background" as reason why we should believe you; and (3) explained why Morey gets hired by Alexander, even though he is practically worthless, by saying that "Entrepreneurs take risks." They don't take no idiotic risks.
way to ignore everything else I said but as to your question, there isnt much proof for this in basketball. but on the flip side, there's also no evidence that it does not translate into successful strategy and wins, so I can ask you the same question. hence my statement that this conversation is premature. give the man some time. if $ball destroys the rockets as you seem to believe it will, i think it would be cool to revisit the conversation and understand what went wrong and why. but until that time, you're vilifying the approach with nothing to back you up but your own opinions. you are certainly entitled to believe what you want, but it does strike me as some relatively undeserved vitriol.
If you want to mock go ahead. What I am saying is that I am mocking Morey while you and him are mocking me. You don't see the difference?
Co-signed, Isiah Thomas, Kevin McHale and Michael Jordan. Why don't you describe what are the intangibles he and the non basketball background fans cannot spot. I thought all the basic intangibles - right character, hardworker, hustler, never give up attitude, tough as nuts, team player, eager learner - can be spotted by any Tom, Dick and Harry, but obviously there are basketball intangibles that can only be 'spotted' by a person with a basketball background. So go ahead, give your take on those intangibles. Based on what? 6 months worth of work? What a way to jump to a conclusion.
I was skeptical at first about Morey, but I like the job he's done so far. Carol Dawson was hit and miss. Drafting was HORRIBLE under his watch. But, he was pretty good at trades, sometimes incredible, although they sort of worked out 50/50. Often he didn't sweeten the deal to get the best deals done, because he was too high on our players. I think a lot of the problem was tied to Le$$ Alexander, though, and recently his dislike for Van Gundy. Morey has impressed me, though, so far. I know the deals for Francis and James haven't panned out, but they weren't for that much money. James was a side-ways move with similar salary, and he could get his shooting back, so he has trade value. Francis could still pan out if he recovers from injury. Francis should have gotten this surgery a couple years ago, I think. The rooks are awesome. But, he hasn't wasted money, like CD did sometimes. His business acumen really helps him put good deals together, and his high IQ enables him to function within a strategy, and run the ship well. I'll take intelligence over basketball experience everytime. There are many people with basketball experience, but not very many with his intelligence who's a fanatic about basketball and business, with the skills to get ahead in this computer age.
Seems like you guys are speaking two different languages. Durvasa et al are essentially saying: all business decision making are using some sort of statistical analysis, there's no evidence why Morey can't be succesful. And, Macfan is basically saying: while that's true, you rarely see CEOs at the top are stats guy, they are more likely business person who appreciate stats assistance. There's no evidence Morey can be successful without the business/sports part. So, the essential question is how much business/basketball savvy Morey has, and that's an open question. Now go on.
if you want to use the CEO comparison, you need to compare similar sized organizations. An NBA franchise is a relatively small organization, and in the case of many small organizations, the CEO is the stats guy, and the marketing guy, and the finance guy, and the accounting guy . . . and they all have different value systems in determining how to run their businesses. a smart enough person can make just about any approach work. the fundamental issue is that we don't have enough evidence to support either side of this conversation right now. so while it raises an interesting question, it's one that cant be resolved at the moment in any real way.
I agree with that. From what I know of him, he seems well qualified from a business-standpoint, despite being relatively young. I'm less clear on what it means to have "basketball savvy". I think he probably knows as well as anyone all the quantifiable information and historical trends: what type of teams tend to be more successful, what type of players do good teams tend to have, what type of combinations of players tend to play well with each other, and against whom, etc. And I'm sure he has his computer models on predicting how much the addition of a certain player would help the team in terms of wins, and whether we'd get good return on the investment. Can those models match or improve on good old-fashion experience+intuition? I don't know, but again I think it's a fascinating topic. I'm curious to see where this all leads.
A NBA franchise worths what? 300Million upward? That's hardly a small business no matter what the size in terms of number of employee. If you look around the league, management is very much layered. That's big business, not small size.
You can bet Daryl consults with Rick Adelman about potential trades, etc. It was Rick Adelman's decision to keep Bonzi Wells this year, and Rick Adelman influenced the decision to pick Aaron Brooks.
Morey doesn't make decisions in a vacuum. Without a doubt, he does consult Rick Adelman, who is very knowledgeable about basketball
