[Chron] Lewis' Deal has Rockets Looking in Other Directions

That's not going to happen IMHO. In the unlikely case that the Rockets would rate Amir Johnson highly enough that they stepped up and paid for him...they wouldn't bring back Chuck Hayes. Hear me out.

First, I said if they stepped up and paid Johnson what the going market rate would require. That amount eats into the ~$5m cushion that the Rockets have between current committed contracts and an LTax I estimate at $68m. Hays, Landry and Johnson are too much a duplication of raw youth. The rest of the cushion $ to the LTax would be spent on a vet who provided a different but proven skill set.

 

Sura and Lucas are only guaranteed $1.5 million total, which also means they will only count $1.5 million against the cap if waived, which means that instead of Sura counting $4,160,000 (again I stress that's his real contract) and Lucas counting $770,610 against the cap, they will only count $1,000,000 and $500,000 against the cap. Lucas and Sura will be waived shortly I would say.

I have figured the numbers out already. If the Luxury tax comes in at around $68,000,000 like it is being reported then the Rockets will have enough money to give Hayes over $6 million over 3 years assuming he signed for around LLE money ($1,830,000) and got the 10.5% raises instead of the 8% raises. The Rockets can offer an LLE type deal but with an extra year and bigger raises than another team can. Will any team offer Hayes anything more than that? I doubt it, if anything he may sign for the LLE at 2 years, and be matched.

Then the Rockets can still re-sign Mutombo to the vet's minimum (about $1,220,000 for Mutombo) Mutombo should accept the minimum at this point, sign Landry and Brooks to rookie scale deals, and still pay Spanoulis his full contract amount regardless of whether he is here or in Greece, PLUS have the money to sign Johnson.

1. Sura $1.0 million (guarantee against cap if waived)
2. Lucas $.50 million (guarantee against cap if waived)
3. James $6.03 million (his real salary with the trade kicker added in)
4. Alston $4.55 million
5. Brooks $.811 million (rookie scale deal)
6. Spanoulis $1.944 million (probably this much even if he is in Greece)
7. Head $1.122 million
8. Snyder $2.358 million
9. Wells $2.284 million
10. McGrady $19.014 million
11. Novak .687 million
12. Reed $1.438 million
13. Landry .$427 million (rookie minimmum - all Rockets have to pay for 2nd rounder)
14. Yao $13.763 million (his real salary, remember he got a raise when the new CBA came out, some sources just didn't change it)
15. Mutombo $1.22 million (10 plus year veteran's minimum)
16. Hayes $1.83 million
17. Battier $5.884 million


Now add those contracts together and you get $64.915 million.

The luxury tax is being estimated at around $68 million.

That leaves $3,085,000.

 

I have confidence in Morey.

It seems like he's not going to overpay.

 

Great analysis - thanks for doing the math. If correct, if we have a shot at a valid MLE target (i.e. Darko after the market for him dries up ), we need to let VSpan out of his deal (like Utah let D Fisher out of his deal), giving us another $1.9 million to spend under the luxury tax threshold. Or maybe we can ship VSpan and another player to Dallas for "cash considerations", as Dallas has a $4 million trade exception.

 

Morey is being too cool about things right now. I am convinced that some fruitful trade has to be in the works for him to be taking his time like this.
A trade is definite but when is anybodys guess.

 

I agree we keep patching the same old tire and when it blows out on us in the playoffs the Rockets have a surprised look on their face. We need to make a big splash at our PF position if this team is going anywhere next year. The question is who is that player: I think Artest is the answer, but lately the Knicks seem like his destination. Can Darko make a difference in Houston? He has the tools, but maybe the desire is just not there. He's worth a gamble.

I think Nocioni would be a great PF for us and if we need to pay him more to get him then Les needs to poney up! This guy can shoot the ball and is a proven NBA player that would spread the floor for Yao.

 

Morey's a stat geek which means he has to keep it realistic. I don't like this overwhelming pessimistic mood either but we'll just have to see what he can pull out of his hat trade-wise.

 

Real talk

 

I feel the negativity as well, He seems to be in doubt 95 % of the time.



Daryl Morey
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Daryl Morey (born 1972) was named assistant general manager of the Houston Rockets on April 3, 2006 and will replace Carroll Dawson as general manager in 2007. Morey comes to the Rockets after serving three years as SVP of Operations and Information for the Boston Celtics. While with the Celtics, basketball operations was a key part of his responsibilities, including the development of analytical methods and technology to enhance basketball decisions, such as the draft, trades, free agency and statistical advance scouting for the coaching staff. His hiring follows the recent Moneyball trend of moving away from scouting in favor of more statistical-based analysis. Several baseball teams have hired executives with non-traditional baseball backgrounds, but the Rockets are the first NBA team to hire a general manager in this vein.

Morey earned his M.B.A. from the MIT Sloan School of Management in 2000. He teaches a course at MIT in "Analytical Sports Management."


Morey is a finacial advisor, he makes sure the owner or owners spend their money right. He doesn't have any basketball background, he just advises the committe on the financial gains and risks. You need some basketball guys in there to sell the Basketball side to these free agents.It aint all about money all the time,Maybe you can persuade a individual to come play for you for less if you can get them to buy into the basketball rewards.

 

I don't think letting Spanoulis out of his contract helps us cap-wise. I think his contract would still count against the cap (and the luxury tax) for the next two years (unless the third year was a team option). If someone knows definitively the answer to this question, please advise.

 

Spanoulis has a team option for next year so he's as good as an expiring contract. If he agrees to a buyout for $0 that's all that count towards the cap $0.

I hope they're creative with it and package his contract as a salary dump somehow.

 

Not even for the minimum!!!

 

Why are people on this BBS so damn impatient.

Morey's "wait-and-see" approach will generate the best value for the team.

Does anyone wonder why we are going to have Bonzi Wells on this team for only $2.4M, while guys like Anderson Varajao are going to make over $8M per year? It's because the Rockets waited for the free agent pool to dry up last offseason and just picked up the best of what was left. Bonzi had compounded his mistake of not taking Sacramento's offer by not signing with another team for the full MLE while they were still available. Instead, he ended up having to settle for only part of the MLE with the Rockets. That's what patience gets you.

It happens this way every summer. First, the top free agents sign their huge deals. Then, the second-tier free agents scramble around for teams' remaining cap space. Next, the third- and fourth-tier guys (and many of the leftover second-tier guys) go after the MLE with most teams. Once many teams have used their MLE on free agents, you are left with the following:

(1) Second and third-tier free agents who held out too long for more money and are left having to take partial MLE deals (see Wells, Bonzi) or otherwise take a small fraction of what they were looking for (see Stevenson, Deshawn); and

(2) Teams who overzealously went after free agents, only to realize that they then have to balance out their rosters and are then much more open to making trades.

The fact of the matter is that the Rockets will likely be able to find later this summer a free agent power forward of the same or similar caliber to the ones set to go quickly for most or all of the MLE, and they won't have to pay nearly as much. Also, many of the trades that are unavailable to the Rockets at this time will probably open up. With several teams venturing close to or over the luxury tax, the value of Bob Sura's contract will be at an all-time high by about September.

Don't think that Morey hasn't calculated WHEN the best value can be had in the offseason. The guy has probably plotted out every free agent signing over the past two collective bargaining agreements. Give the guys a chance. I bet there will be great value to be had in both the free agent and trade markets. Just be patient.

 

I sensed one thing from our recent contact with Lewis, the front office is unexperienced and not realistic about what we could bring into this team in the current situation.
A long way to go. Hopefully they could learn quickly from this to get a good PF soon.

 

Pefectly said. Of course it would be nice to have a PF at this time, but whether we get him today or thre months from now, he isnt playing a game for the Rox until the season starts.

Also, everyone who keeps saying Morey is a stats guy and doesnt know anything about basketball are stupid. If this was the case, why isnt every MIT grad a sports GM. In case people havent noticed, at this point, the list of teams who have neither made a trade or signed a FA also includes the Mavs, Suns (traded away a pick and James Jones but got nothing in return), Spurs, Pistons, Cavs, and just about every other team but the Magic and Raptors.

Besides, look at the signings or potential signings so far. Lewis getting max money, Varajao offered 8 million a year, and Kapono getting 6 million a year are terrible. I would be pissed if the Rox did any of those deals.

 

Exactly! Here's a piece from from today's Indy Star saying the exact same thing. Also the Jerry West story is great whether it's true or not.

http://blogs.indystar.com/pacersinsider/archives/2007/07/jump_the_gun_an.html

Mid-level exceptions are the greatest threat to fiscal sanity for teams, and tend to lead to the most mistakes. They’re available to every team that’s over the salary cap, which is nearly every team, but there aren’t enough worthy free agents available to justify them. Some teams, eager to pacify their eager fans, inevitably reach out and touch the wrong someone.

An exceptionally well-connected league insider once told me the story of how Brian Cardinal got his mid-level. Seems Memphis owner Michael Heisley, frustrated by general manager Jerry West’s lack of activity, walked into West’s office one day and asked why he hadn’t signed anyone yet. So an exasperated West picked up his phone, called Cardinal’s agent and offered the mid-level on the spot. Then he turned to Heisley and said something along the lines of “There, you happy now?”

Now nobody in Memphis is happy about Cardinal’s contract _ other than Cardinal, of course.

This year, the real bargain-hunting will come at the end of this month, and into August. There are more capable free agents than there are teams with money to spend, so some capable players are going to be available for pennies on the dollar in the surplus bin.

They likely will include ex-Pacers Austin Croshere, Jalen Rose, Dale Davis and Scot Pollard. Other potential finds include Chucky Atkins, James Posey, Desmond Mason and Jamaal Magloire.

The best GMs know how to play this game. They have to strike when the time is right, but they also have to be savvy shoppers who know they don’t always get what they pay for in free agency. A little patience and a sharp eye can go a long way toward building a team

 

Wow. The Brian Cardinal story makes so much sense. I always wondered why Jerry West would do that.

 

Well, we laugh at that Cardinal story now, but Kapono just got $24 million bucks, Matt Carroll just got $27 million, even Matt Bonner just got $10 million from the Spurs... and we are a season away from full MLE for Vlad Rad and $20 million for Marcus Banks.

GMs haven't learned.

 

Agreed, and now half the board wants our MLE given to a straight out of high school, late second round pick, who has done nothing in the NBA over the past two seasons. Of course who can blame them, since Vspan just taught us how great late second round picks can become.