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[Chron] Kevin Porter Jr. Rocket's Point Guard

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by DaDakota, Apr 6, 2023.

  1. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    And? Doesn't change the fact that he is still an average scorer at best and an inefficient, mediocre passer and playmaker at best. That's like saying someone is the tallest on a basketball team full of super short people. Doesn't mean ****.
     
  2. MystikArkitect

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    Another KPj thread? Wonder what this one's going to be about.
     
  3. hlmbasketball

    hlmbasketball Member

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    If you look back, I think the Rockets liked C Wood and vice versa. However if you recall during the off season, C Wood referenced that he and the Rockets were working on a contract extension and a week or two later, he was traded.

    I think C Wood's issues aroused from where he thought his value was compared to where the Rockets thought his value was. That is not the case with KPJ, he has a contract.

    I like our backcourt....we a bench, more need more size and shooting
     
  4. Rvo384

    Rvo384 Member

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    So the bar is in hell
     
  5. Plowman

    Plowman Member

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    These are honed skills, you moron...unlike height.

    And, he's an above average scorer, being charged with being a distributor out top...not playing naturally. He's had to think more out there, rather than playing his game.
     
  6. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Talking about missing the forest for the trees.

    Let me spell it out for you, being the best ball handler on a team full of young rookies and sophomores where NONE of them were known for ball handling coming in is NOT impressive in the least. Being the best shooter on a team of bad shooters is NOT impressive either.

    KPJ is not an above average scorer. There is a reason he has never had above average TS% even before our failed KPJ as PG experiment. If he wants to be a combo guard, he either needs to be an efficient scorer or good playmaker. He has NEVER been either.
     
  7. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    KPJ isn't a top 20 point guard in the league and I don't think he has the feel, instincts, or burst to get there; but KPJ is absolutely an above average scorer. NBA players under 25yo with >24% usage and >56% TS%:

    Luka
    Trae
    Anthony Edwards
    Poole
    Garland
    Herro
    Simons
    JJJ
    KPJ
    Haliburton

    That's the whole list. It's 6 obvious max guys, 3 $30M/yr guys, and KPJ. And KPJ is the second youngest in that group at 22, working with the least offensive spacing by far.

    I don't think he's a future star or the future of this team, but he's a legitimately good young player. Just miscast.
     
  8. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    I've had a long-held belief that the most dangerous thing to an NBA franchise is an extremely ball-dominant player who is pretty good at scoring but not truly great at scoring. These guys can tantalize you into thinking you've found a player to build around without ever being good enough to take you deep into the playoffs.

    I see KPJ as that kind of player, and if the Rockets get too attached, he could really screw up the franchise for years. Fortunately, I don't think Stone is actually that dim. They've been very careful not to commit too much to KPJ and I think his time as "head honcho" is coming to a close.

    The best role for these guys is always as a 6th man, playing alongside your actual primary ballhandler as little as possible. If their ego can't handle that, they end up playing overseas. KPJ is going to have to decide which option he prefers.
     
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  9. xaos

    xaos Member

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    Wouldn't mind him of the bench if he picks his moments to go hero mode. Don't want him as a starting PG and would prefer Eason over KPJ at the 3.
     
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  10. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    You are leaving a lot of context off here so I will fill in the blanks.
    • Every single one of those listed players have a higher TS% than KPJ
    • With the exception of ANT and Herro, all the other listed players have a noticeably to significantly higher TS% compared to KPJ
    • Every single one of those players save Poole are also hitting their numbers with opposing scheming entire defenses around them as well
    For the record, I have NEVER called KPJ a bad player and I do agree he is being miscasted which is the entire problem to begin with. There is a reason why I have advocated keeping him on the team as opposed to cutting him or trading him for anything other than as part of a bundle for a star. He is just a terrible PG.
     
  11. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    Come on, you're trying to twist something I laid out very simply. I'm not even a KPJ stan, and he absolutely cannot be running point for us next year, but I don't know why people are so reactive to the idea he's a quite good and valuable young player.

    Yeah, they have higher TS than KPJ... because the stat is set at KPJ's numbers this year. And to be clear, 4 out of the 10 other players have TS% within 1 point of KPJ (Poole, Edwards, Trae, Herro).

    4 out of those 10 guys play with a better offensive star player (Simons, Herro, Garland, and JJJ)... how are entire defenses scheming around them?

    I could also point out that KPJ has the 5th highest ast% of the group, 6th highest ast/to, 3rd highest orb%, 5th highest drb%, 3rd highest stl%, 6th highest blk%. Has superior defensive tools to Simons, Trae, Poole, Herro, and Garland. And as I mentioned he's the 2nd youngest with the worst offensive spacing and supporting cast.

    We agree that KPJ isn't cut out to be our PG.

    That being said, it's OK to admit it, KPJ is better than just "not a bad player". KPJ is good.
     
    #71 carl_herrera, Apr 7, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2023
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  12. lnchan

    lnchan Sugar Land Leonard
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    Um remember Maurice Taylor?
     
  13. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    pretty sure the rockets were highlighting francis and Yao and not him
     
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  14. dmoneybangbang

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    And we’ve been dog **** ever since… Not exactly high praise
     
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  15. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Like I said, I never said he was a bad player only that he is a bad PG and inefficient scorer. You cannot be a combo guard if you are both a bad playmaker and inefficient scorer.

    You mentioned assists, but what about TOV% which is probably even more important? Also, I really don’t care about rebounding metrics for a guard. They shouldn’t be rebounding much to begin with, which was why I never cared for WB’s MVP campaign during his trip dub season.
     
  16. dmoneybangbang

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    KPJ puts up numbers on basically the worst team in the league for the past 3 seasons. Hard for me to say what KPJ is..... good? ok? meh?

    I tend to think he's between "ok" and "good".

    I think it's just hard to determine with how bad the roster has been.
     
  17. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    This is just you saying that you have a non falsifiable stance, you believe what you believe and no amount of evidence to the contrary will alter it.

    If he performs poorly, your bias is confirmed, if he performs well.... doesn't matter he's on a bad team thus your bias is confirmed.

    Funny how that works.
     
  18. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    It's in the post. "6th highest ast/to".

    Remember, this is a comparison to 10 max or near max players who are mostly 1 or 2 years older than him.

    How is he an inefficient scorer? He's in the 60th percentile of points per shot attempt among non-bigs according to cleaning the glass, while having high usage, on a team with the worst spacing in the NBA, and being 22.

    I repeat, KPJ is not our point guard going forward, but KPJ is good.
     
  19. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    AST/TO is called Turnover Ratio and is completely different than TOV% which is Turnover Percentage. Turnover Percentage is a player's percentage of personal TOs in relation to the team's overall total while said player is in the game. Now, this number has actually gone down a bit given his recent stretch of good games, but it is still atrocious at 15.9%.

    Average TS% for guards this season is 56% and he is currently at 56.2% after a surge in good shooting the last few weeks. In what universe does "barely above average" become "good"? It's also funny that you point out high usage, because that's my other beef about KPJ, that he has high usage. Simply put, he is NOT the type of player I ever want having high usage. The last thing I want on ANY game night is to watch him showcasing his discount Harden schtick. As for age, I personally don't care that he is "only" 22 years old given that this is his 4th year in the league.

    To sum things up, I do not believe KPJ is a good player. I believe he is an OK player, which is actually higher consideration than I gave Jeremy Lin. With that said, I believe that if he is put in a 3&D role, that he can be a great player given the areas where he is actually good.
     
  20. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    Turnover percentage is not what you're describing. It's the estimated % of the player's plays that end in a turnover, not the percentage of the team's total. Also sometimes expressed as a per100 number. https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html

    You have to contextualize that with the playmaking load a player takes on. Sometimes people do raw AST/TO ratio, in the advanced stats community it's usually done as AST% to TO %. With AST % as the percent of FG's made by teammates assisted by the player when he's on the floor.

    Simons, Herro, JJJ, Poole, and Zion all turn it over more frequently than KPJ relative to their playmaking load as reflected in AST%.

    60th percentile points per shot attempt, with a high self creation load, meaningful volume, and when your teammates have the worst 3P% in the NBA (and it's actually even worse than that when considering KPJ is our best shooter and can't space the floor for himself) is good. Being in any kind of range as the guys we're discussing is good. Only someone with irrational KPJ dislike would deny that.

    And being 22 matters, he could keep developing for 3-4 more years in the same way he's developed this year.

    He shouldn't be our PG next year, but he's a good player.
     

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