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Chron: It won't be all sweetness if Texans get first pick

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Rockets34Legend, Dec 28, 2005.

  1. Rockets34Legend

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    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/3551292.html

    By JOHN MCCLAIN
    Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle

    The first pick in the NFL draft generates a lot of excitement among fans and media, but it can also create a lot of problems for the team that has it.

    If the Texans lose at San Francisco on Sunday, they'll finish 2-14, the worst record in the league. They'll have the top pick for the second time in four years, and they'll use it on USC running back Reggie Bush.

    Not only does the top pick cost a team mega-millions, but there is excruciating pressure on the player to live up to the hype and the contract. If you don't believe it, just ask Texans quarterback David Carr.

    Even though Bush, a junior, hasn't announced his intentions to leave the Trojans after the Rose Bowl against the Texas Longhorns, his departure is one of the worst-kept secrets in football.

    Because Bush is the Heisman Trophy winner, has helped USC contend for a third consecutive national championship and is regarded by NFL scouts as one of the best prospects in history, his agent will demand the kind of money only quarterbacks get at the top of the draft, which begins April 29 in New York.

    The pressure on Bush to produce immediately will be enormous.

    Management can't comment on Bush until he declares for the draft. The deadline for doing that is Jan. 15 for underclassmen. But it's clear the Texans would take him rather than trade the choice for multiple picks.

    Under the circumstances, why would Texans owner Bob McNair want to defeat San Francisco and risk losing such a rare prospect as Bush? If the Texans beat the 49ers, strength of schedule will determine the tiebreaker from as many as five teams, including San Francisco.

    "Look, the best thing of all would be for us to beat San Francisco and still get the No. 1 pick," McNair said. :confused:

    Numbers to be crunched

    According to the NFL and Elias Sports Bureau, strength of schedule can't accurately be determined until after this weekend's games. But the odds are against the Texans having the easiest schedule among a group of tied teams and still getting the top pick.

    "I'm not saying who we'd take," McNair said, "but having the top pick means we'd be in control of what would happen at the top of the draft. You really can't tell anything at this point, but I will tell you this: We want to win. It's not in our nature to not want to win."

    A lot of fans would want McNair to trade down and acquire an additional pick or two.

    While Dom Capers was the coach at Carolina, the Panthers traded the top pick in the 1995 draft to Cincinnati. The Bengals selected running back Ki-Jana Carter, who blew out his knee in his first preseason game. After he recovered, Carter suffered a second major knee injury that ruined his career.

    The Panthers took quarterback Kerry Collins.

    "We felt we'd be able to get Collins with the fifth pick (in the first round), and (we got) an early second-rounder (in exchange)," Capers said.

    Baltimore had the first pick in the 1983 draft and selected quarterback John Elway, who refused to play for the Colts. The owner, Robert Irsay, panicked and traded him to Denver without the knowledge of his general manager, Ernie Accorsi, who was so incensed he resigned. Elway and his coach, Dan Reeves, played in three Super Bowls, and Elway won two after Reeves left.

    San Diego had the top picks in 2001 and 2004. The Chargers traded with Atlanta in 2001, and the Falcons used the first pick on quarterback Michael Vick.

    The Chargers used the pick obtained from Atlanta for running back LaDainian Tomlinson. San Diego used its first pick in the second round on quarterback Drew Brees.

    The Chargers used the top pick on quarterback Eli Manning last year, then traded Manning to the New York Giants for their No. 1 pick, quarterback Philip Rivers, and an extra first-round pick.

    Bum's big deal

    One of the best trades involving the top pick was made by Oilers coach Bum Phillips in 1978. He acquired the first pick from Tampa Bay and selected Texas running back Earl Campbell.

    The Oilers also made one of the worst trades in NFL history. They dealt 1974's first-rounder to Dallas for receiver Billy Parks and defensive end Tody Smith.

    The Cowboys used the pick on defensive end Ed "Too Tall" Jones. Parks and Smith bombed out with the Oilers. Jones became one of the best players in Cowboys history.

    john.mcclain@chron.com

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TEXANS SUMMARY

    Feathery touch

    When Texans defensive end Gary Walker got to his locker last week, he found a card from owner Bob McNair with a feather attached.

    McNair had told Walker before the Arizona game that he was going to South Texas to hunt pheasants. Walker asked McNair to bring him one back. McNair told Walker that if he got a sack, the owner would bring him a pheasant.

    "Well, Gary almost got one," McNair said with a laugh after Saturday's loss to Jacksonville. "And I almost got a pheasant. I wrote on the card that he came close to getting the sack, and the feather was as close as I came to getting the pheasant."

    Missing Week 17

    Gary Walker won't play the last game at San Francisco. He's undergoing surgery today to repair a severed triceps muscle, an injury suffered in the first quarter in Saturday's loss to Jacksonville.

    Speed thrills

    Receiver Andre Johnson, whose injured calf muscle kept him on the sideline during part of the season, had seven catches for 119 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville.

    Coach Dom Capers was asked what kind of problems opposing defenses will have if Johnson and a healthy Jerome Mathis are on the field at the same time next season. Mathis runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.2s, Johnson in the 4.3s.

    "All of these young guys can be a lot better," Capers said. "We were able to throw the ball down the field (against the Jaguars) more."

    Secondary prospects

    Of the four starting defensive backs who will be in the lineup for the last game at San Francisco, only cornerback Demarcus Faggins has more than two seasons of experience.

    He is in his fourth season.

    Cornerback Dunta Robinson and strong safety Glenn Earl are in their second seasons. Free safety C.C. Brown is a rookie.

    "We've got a number of young players on defense, and they'll continue to get better," coach Dom Capers said.
     
    #1 Rockets34Legend, Dec 28, 2005
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2005
  2. today

    today Member

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    Trust me, I ran through all scenarios, and it's not mathematically possible for Houston to overtake (or even tie) New Orleans in the SOS. If we beat SF (possible) and NO loses to TB (very probable), then the best that the Texans can get is the #2 pick.


    This is true, the final SOS can't be determined until week 17 is finished. BUT if you assume that there won't be any week 17 ties, there are several matchups for each team where the outcome of the game is not important, they will get 1 win and 1 loss added in to the SOS no matter who wins/loses (Texans example: Cin @ KC. We have played both teams, so either way we get 1 win and 1 loss added). After you factor in those games, you see that even if New Orleans were to win out (to maximize their SOS) and Houston would lose out (to minimize their SOS), New Orleans would still have a weaker SOS.
     
  3. candlegreen

    candlegreen Member

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    not even if a bunch of the teams Houston faced loses and the ones NO faced wins?
     

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