[Chron.com] Rockets move step closer to retaining Carl Landry

Landry is the type of piece that you can play on both offense and defense: Horry/Thorpe/Maxwell/Fisher/Posey ... those types of guys are needed...plus he has the potential to explode offensively every now & then. His "grounded" game is pretty good too since he has good IQ and a reliable shot -- even more so than Scola...my hope is that this can be worked out...Even with all the 4s & 5s we have Landry would be useful at the 3...

 

I like Landry, but I think there is some overvaluing here (and notice he isn't listed among the top 20 FA by most people). Landry isn't getting PT over Odom or Gasol (remember Bynam will be back at C, so Gasol plays more 4). Landry would have a tough time getting minutes at Utah with Boozer, AK47, and Millsap taking PF minutes. Those teams will have next to zero interest. The teams we have to worry are teams desperate at the PF spot and willing to risk overpaying to improve their lot--Mem, Bucks, Phi, Sac. Now SA, Dallas and NO might come into play if they knew we could not match and they can take a mild gamble with hurting a competitor, and that only happens if we land our A targets with the MLE elsewhere.

I would offer a 2 year LLE with a player option right off the bat. That is 3.9 min after two seasons. Landry could also opt out next year, and we have his Early Bird (potentially sign him for a little more than an MLE because of raises, with an extra year) or he can sign for another 1 year with a 25% raise. This gives him decent security and options.

Now this may not be enough, but it is a fair offer. 2 mil a year is what the mid lottery picks get (though they get more years they also get more restrictions), and more than Chuck Hayes got per season after actually starting games and playing more than a full season of games. If Landry wants more than the LLE, I think he will have to shop around. Then the Rockets can decide to match or not, I think anything over 9 mil 3 years is way shaky. This is a 24 year old with 1 year of NBA experience where he started none times and played 18% of the teams minutes.

Personally I don't think we will continue to sign 2nd round picks with part of the MLE. Needing Bird Rights for 2nd round picks is just not needed. The amount of them that demand over MLE money is miniscule (Boozer, Arenas, Manu?), and now there is the Arenas provision anyway if they do happen to be that outstanding.

I think Landy will be here (somewhere between 1.5 and 2.7 mil year, 2-3 years). I think the only way he isn't is because we use virtually all of our MLE for a A list target, and if that happens probably the +s are better than the -s.

 

I agree with you on landrry. he's a nice player, but i wouldnt hold up my mle for him. I would offer him the lle like you stated and take it or leave it, but it will be there when you're ready yo sign.

 

From newest Chron story, I get the impression that Landry is not very interested to go through more detailed examination for his knee. If someone offers full MLE, could we still do S&T and get something in return?

 

Very well written Desert Scar.

 

I posted this earlier tonight in the wrong thread I guess since it is now just a Brent Barry debate. I am in agreement with most of what Scar has to say above:

Anybody who isn't concerned about Landry's knee is fooling himself. Can one of the stat guys on this board please post what Landry's numbers were from the point when he started to get material minutes until the knee injury and then the numbers from after the injury through the playoffs? They will be eye-popping, just like the dropoff in production and leaping ability that was apparent to anyone watching him play throughout the course of the season.

That said the Rockets should focus on getting Carl back at a reasonable price and then getting him healthy - even if it means reconstructing his knee and having him sit out for a year. His upside is good enough to warrant such an approach. I feel confident that if he were already under contract for next season and beyond, he would already have had some type of surgery even if exploratory / arthroscopic in nature - either right after the playoffs or potentially even during the regular season after the injury clearly compromised his effectiveness and the Rockets were without Yao and therefore without legitimate title hopes.

I believe that Morey is thinking along the same lines, but it's evident that he is hedging the risk of some other team risking a big offer to Landry that the Rockets would be loath to match given the health risk by plainly stating the team's concern in that area. Hopefully he is having a conversation with Landry and his agent along the lines of "Look, we both know that there is something going on with your knee. You had problems at Purdue and you're having problems again. We're willing to work with you and sign you to a guaranteed 3 or 4 year deal at a reasonable salary with the agreement that we will go in and fix whatever we find that's wrong, and we'll sign you to this deal before we demand further information or testing on your knee. This way, you get financial security even if your knee is in really bad shape, and we get the financial security of not making a roster killing mistake."

Ideally this results in a 3 to 4 year, $8 to $10 million deal that is a pretty good deal for both sides, where each is taking some risk (Rockets that Landry never becomes the dunk machine pogo stick again; Landry that he could have gotten more money from the Rockets or another team if he was willing to risk proving the knee was healthy either through testing or a one-year deal at a lower salary) but each side has a downside they can live with. The only thing that blows up this scenario is another team coming in and making a big offer, hence the public remarks about the knee by Morey.

The trade down and selection of Dorsey is a pretty clear indication that Morey fears losing Landry to either (a) a big offer from another team or (b) surgery on the knee. Nice to have a GM that can think big picture and execute, isn't it?

 

No it isn't. The trade down is a clear indication that he thought the players he could get would be better than the player he could get at 25. If you listen to Morey, he knew he could get Greene at 28 and Greene would be the guy they selected at 25. Greene and Dorsey are better than just Greene.

While I think the Rockets have concerns about Landry's knee, I don't think the Dorsey pick means they are quaking in their boots about him. There are only 5 positions in the NBA or 3 if you lump PF-C and SG-SF. There is basically a 33% that the best player available when Dorsey was picked was a PF-C.

 

I really think most fans have over-rated Landry.

Landry's biggest strength is his strong finish around the rim/his explosiveness off the floor, which he acquired after training with the Rockets.

His bumped knee is really big concern for a minor injury seemed to keep him out for 7-8 games and took him a long time to regain his explosiveness.

Landry hits jumper only at ~40%, which if you consider Landry got mostly wide open jumper, is not a good FG%. So, I dont call Landry is a good shooter.

Landry also lacks NBA level post game. Some fans said Landry had post game in college. But I recalled the game vs Jazz in regular season when Yao was out, Adelman did try to put Landry and Scola in the post but nothing got done. Landry just doesnt have NBA level post game.

Landry still needs to improve his jumper, and his post game (likely some kind of post up for a turn around jumper, a little jump hook). David West was a very good jump shooter before he developed his post game.

I think if the Rockets re-sign Landry for a start salary of ~ 2 millions is a fair deal to both side.

 

if only, i`m sure someone will offer him more than that. if we can get him for 2, then i`m all for it. the fact is, him and scola yao are the only 3 who bangs down low, which makes him more important for us than it would for other teams, and scola and yao seems to play a finesse game more than a physical game.

landry is the only player who plays rough, and he was a rookie, so he will probably get better, bigger, etc...

he`s more valuable to us than to other teams imo.

 

You have to admit he was our ONLY Player who really could finish strong around the rim. Scola can't do that, he doesn't dunk always, he is completly different player.

When you talk about shooting I can't agree. 40% is not good but he is not here to shoot the ball well from the outside, he is here to finish strong at the rim. And when he has an open jumper he usually hits them.

I agree that he has to work on his post up game.

Maybe Rockets fans overate Landry, as they do with Battier. But one thing is clear, now with Dorsey his value is lower. But Landry has already shown he can play, we can't be sure about Dorsey. He looks good but you never know...

 

Landry hits his jumper greater than 44% of the time. http://www.82games.com/0708/07HOU15A.HTM

44% isn't bad.

 

apparently the pacers are interested in Landry.

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080701/SPORTS04/807010357/1088/SPORTS04

 

82games.com says that Landry's eFG% at jump is 44%.

But according to nba.com, Landry's FGM-A is 135-219 and his FGM-A in the paint is 110-159. So, Landry's FGM-A outside the paint is 25-60, which is .417 FG%, and those were open jumpers.

 

How about this?

Rockets agree not to match the Pacers offer to Landry in return the Pacers agree to trade:

Battier + Head + Francis for Mike Dunleavy

Pacers have had off the court problems with a lot of their players. A stand up guy like Battier gives them leadership in the lockerroom and maybe an influence outside of basketball?

Rockets get more offense in the starting lineup. Alston, McGrady, and Dunleavy that's like having 3 PGs on the floor. Adelman's Cerberus?

Ford, Jack, Diener, Tinsley
Rush, Francis
Granger, Williams, Graham
Murphy, McRoberts
Foster, Hibbert

Alston, Jackson, Brooks
Dunleavy, Barry
McGrady, Greene, Novak
Scola, Harris, Dorsey
Yao, Hayes, Deke

 

scola has more ways to finish around the rim than landry. only way landry has but scola doesn't is dunk.

 

why???? who is going to be our best perimeter defender? Mike Dunleavy? please come up sth that makes sense.

 

Landry does have a post game (which you will see) and his jumper is one of his strengths. You seem to forget that Landry was only a rookie last season and most rookies play at hyper speed ie.(with adrenline), he will settle down and play more in the flow. You will see other facets to his game this upcoming season and be impessed. The only issue I see with Landry is going to be his knee and it looks like Morey is using that as a bargaining chip in contract negotiations.

 

The problem for Landry is that we already have Scola.....so you have two guys at the prime of their career battling for minutes.

I would not be surprised if the Rockets picked one (probably Scola) and let Carl go....

DD

 

a clear upgrade doesn't make sense?

 

Well guess we will just have to wait and see. By the way, Landry would love playing for the Pacers. All his buddies from Purdue can drive the 90 minutes down to Indy to see him play. Still want him back on the Rockets. 3 mil a year for 3 years for a 9 million dollar deal seems fair.