[Chron] Andre Johnson no longer wants to be a Texan

You really believe he could go first ballot? It seems there is still doubt as to whether he will get into the hall at all, so id be surprised if he makes it right away. Would love to see it happen though.

 

Kubiak's dumb ass didn't even have Dre on the field downs 2-4 to end that game. If you're throwing to him, you at least keep him in as a decoy. Smh

Shame it took a 12 game losing streak for a change.

 

*not* throwing

 

This and the Courney Finnegan beat down will be my fondest memories of AJ.

 

I think so. I mean they'll look at the teams he was dominant on, and his numbers are unbelievable for the most part. I think tons of people will say "if only he had a QB" and vote for him.

 

If Chris Carter didn't make it on the first ballot, I don't see AJ making it.

 

I know we've been around this same block previously but... "unbelievable"? Here are his current all-time ranks: 17th in yards; 14th in receptions; 68th in TDs; 2nd in yards/game. Those are most assuredly “believable.” Reggie Wayne, an apple-to-apple peer by virtually every measure (right down to his college), ranks ahead of him in each of those categories, save yards/game. He also outranks him in Super Bowl wins, playoff appearances, career wins… (And yes, those matter; not to me – but to the PFWAA, they absolutely do.)

I know he has specific records that place him in the company of guys like Jerry Rice - but I think it's a mighty large assumption to assume a group that isn't, collectively, the most proactive lot around (the PFWAA) is going to dig beyond high-level career ranks and, frankly, team success. AJ has toiled in near anonymity for the entirety of his career. And his eligibility will coincide with some of the greatest/most prolific WRs in NFL history also being eligible.

And the "if only he had a QB” stance isn't going to carry much weight beyond city limits, primarily because Schaub has a better reputation among non-Texan fans. But beyond that, you could say the same thing for Randy Moss for most of his career; Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Steve Smith… Larry Fitzgerald would have KILLED to have a QB that posted a 90+ QBR five years in a row. As is, he's experienced it twice in a nine-year career. Below 70? Four times. Calvin Johnson is on pace to be one of the two or three greatest WRs of all-time, and Stafford’s career QBR is 8 full points lower than Schaub’s (as a Texan ) – and that doesn’t include two full seasons with Kitna and Orlovsky as his full-time QB.

AJ’s case is strong; I’m not arguing his worth. I just don’t think the PFWAA has followed his career with the same level of intensity as Texan fans.

 

The X-Files creator? Oh, did you mean Cris?

(I know, I know... it's cheap and beneath me and I apologize - but the idea of Chris Carter being on the HoF ballot cracked me up... sorry to otherwise be *that* guy... Truly. Won't happen again. Carry on...)

 

Cris Carter was just a compiler and red zone threat, he was never really all that dominant of a WR. For example, he only has one season in his career over 80 yards per game, Andre's average is over 82 yards a game with Andre having 5 seasons of over 90 yards per game....only Jerry Rice has more than that with 6 such seasons.

I don't think it's fair to Cris Carter to compare him to someone like Andre Johnson, Andre is clearly the superior WR.

1100 more yards puts him top 10 all time 2200 puts him 6th all time, 3350 puts him 2nd all time. Basically if he can have either 2 more good years, or 3 more solid years, he's #2 all time in yards and he'd have done it in fewer years than the other guys on the list.

Also, when you mention Reggie Wayne, how do you think he'd have done if he didn't have arguably the best QB in NFL history throwing him the ball almost his entire career? Even then it's taken him 42 more games to compile less than 1000 more yards. If Reggie Wayne is the comparison, Andre blows him completely out of the water.

 

Carter also played in a less pass-happy league and, IMO, was probably considered more of a star by the media. I'm not saying he's a better WR than AJ, just that WRs rarely make it in on the first ballot. Of course, the book's not closed on AJ, but I think right now, he doesn't get in first ballot.

 

I get that people say that, but it didn't stop the top WR's of the day from putting up those kinds of seasons.....only Cris Carter. Guys like Torry Holt, Jerry Rice, Micheal Irvin, Sterling Sharpe, Henry Ellard, Isaac Bruce, Robert Brooks, Herman Moore, Torry Holt, and so on managed to do it without having to use the excuse of era.

The great WR's always have seasons where they are super dominant and post at least 90 yards per game.....except for Cris Carter.

 

Remember the "Human Element" plays a big part in who gets into the HOF and who doesn't in some cases. Carter may not have been well liked amongst the writers (who do the voting) and he had a very shaky start to his career. Could be what took him so long to get in. AJ won't have an issue with that but it's hard for WR's to get in the HOF without rings and limited playoff appearances regardless of their situation.

 

Yes, based on one specific stat that you’ve conveniently deemed more critical in WR evaluation than every other stat available...

I don't know... it seems wildly disingenuous to use career rankings (hypothetical career rankings, no less) to bolster AJ’s case (as you’ve done below) while systematically rejecting CC’s career rankings, which, btw, are currently 4th (receptions), 4th (TDs) and 9th (yards) – all because Carter didn’t top 80 yards/game – while playing in a considerably less pass-happy league, BTW.

Finally, not to travel too far down the Carter rabbit hole, but the term “compiler” has a negative connotation most often used for players who hung around well past their expiration date, chasing career numbers and milestones (locally, Craig Biggio comes to mind). In his final three full seasons, Carter went 259/3,386. Jerry Rice? 185/2,509. I’m not suggesting Carter was better than Rice, of course – but it’s not like he was padding his statistics with mostly mediocre seasons that stretched over five/six seasons. His final full year (2001), he ranked 22nd in receptions; 27th in yards and scored 6 TDs (which matches AJ’s third-best single-season mark, BTW).

Career longevity has considerable merit.

The target is 15,934 yards *today* - it might be higher given Wayne is roughly just two Reggie Wayne-like years away from getting there first and potentially setting the bar higher.

But even if we set aside Wayne, or assume AJ will eventually surpass him (likely), he’ll hold that spot for how long…? If, based on your estimates, Andre Johnson plays until he’s 36 and averages 1,100 yards over those final three years, applying that same level of production eventually lifts Fitzgerald and CJ ahead of him, and puts Marshall, Bryant, D. Jackson and Nicks all on pace for 15,000+ career yards – and those guys are all still capable of big seasons (minus maybe Fitzgerald) to help close the gap quicker.

So in other words, if he didn’t share the field with Marvin Harrison (sure-fire HoF selection) and Dallas Clark? If he had been, say, an above- average QB’s primary target (like AJ has been for most of his 10-year career)?

You can cut and slice this however you want; I promise you: the PFWAA won’t do as deep a dive. AJ is going to be among a cluster of WRs who have put up relatively similar numbers while toiling on an anonymous team that has lost far more often than it has won. He’s a worthy choice, IMO – I’m not arguing against his candidacy; I’m arguing there’s a good chance the PFWAA will not view him as favorably, based on a number of relevant facts we already know about the PFWAA and his current (and future) competition.

 

I agree, they aren't going to dive as deep, they'll see that he ends up in the top 5 all time in receiving yards with Schaub and Carr as QB's and he did it in fewer years than anyone else around him and they'll punch his card. There might be a few "but he didn't get TD's" type people, but I doubt there will be enough to keep him out of the HOF....after all it's the NFL HOF, not one where you actually have to be good to get in.

 

Andre is going to have trouble getting into the HOF plain and simple. His TDs arent up there. As voters start voting for this generation of players, they'll start noticing inflated stats based on more passing. It also depends on how WRs are performing when the voting is taking place. Who knows where the league is going in terms of passing etc.

I think he should be in the hall of fame based on the fact that there were 2-3 years where he was considered the best WR in the league. Other years where he was top 3.

The one thing that I thought would definitely help him was the fact that he was always professional and likable. Even during the finnigan beatdown, he got a pass.

But these contract negotiations and drama he is causing now may put that in jeopardy. Lets not forget who votes in these things. Sports writers.

Sports writer and reporters are more likely to vote the quiet star like andre as opposed to arrogant players. So if he is on the fence, that is one thing that can get over to the HOF. Although, he no longer has the "he just goes to work day in day out" stigma now that the is holding out....again.

 

Do dominant WRs catch 122 passes and score 17 TDs in a single season? Do they total 515 catches over a five-year stretch? Or score 65 TDs over another five-year stretch? (BTW, those 65 TDs are four more than AJ has in his entire career - but, sure, let's talk about yards per game because that's obviously more important than scoring TDs... I mean, if you want to argue Cris Carter isn't the fastest or strongest WR... OK. But catching passes and scoring TDs both have tremendous value; certainly as much as yards/game.)

 

The fact that he had that many catches and never managed a 90+ YPG season is a knock on him. Catching a ton of screen passes isn't an awesome way to be considered great. I fully agree that he was a great red zone target, but that doesn't make you a great WR. We celebrate the Calvin Johnson's of the world, not the James Jones'

 

Right; just as they did with Tim Brown... it took James Lofton 10 years to get elected; Cris Carter 11; Andre Reed 14 - they were all top five in receiving yards when they retired.

For an idea of AJ's HoF prospects, read this and replace "Isaac Bruce" with "Andre Johnson" (except when they talk about TDs and SB rings... ignore that part.) Here's an excerpt; let me know if any of this sounds familiar:

 

Maybe you should realize why I put emphasis on seasons with over 90 yards per game to help understand.

Cris Carter - 0
Andre Reed - 0

Those two examples are essentially compilers, they ended up with a ton of yards but they weren't ever really super dominant like other guys in the HOF.

As to Isaac Bruce, he's not eligible yet but he at least has 2 or 3 really stellar seasons to help his case, if he'd have had a few more like Andre already does, I think he'd be a lock.

 

AJs is one of my all time favorite players and one of the best ever but i've learned to accept that it's not lock for AJ to get in ( as is right now) and even if he does get 15K in yardage it will more than likely not be a 1st timer. He will either have to have helluva run the next 3-4 years or he will get some special treatment for being the first texan in the hall