I'm going to wait until after 10 games before possibly calling for personel changes. I'm not a Rafer fan at all, and I watch him very critically, but so far I think he's been fine. He has been shooting the 3ball very well (it's still too small a sample size) and his turnovers in the Hornets game were mostly at the beginning. The entire Rockets team was sloppy that game. Rafer has handled the ball well against pressure and he's rebounded well too, and his defensive wasn't that terrible against Paul, for Paul got a lot of his penetration off of pick and rolls, thus it was a team defensive failure in my opinion. Of course all knowledgeable fans realize that all of his assets would not keep him on the court if he shoots the 3ball poorly. The better his 3pter, the more minutes he'll get, and if he gets into a poor shooting funk, Head would get more minutes, and if it lasts for an extremely long time, a trade will be sought out. I broke down 3pt shooting in this thread: http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread.php?t=118644 If Rafer is going to shoot 36% from 3ball, his minutes will go down, or at least his attempts will/should go down to 2.5 a game, not 7 a game. Here's some hardcore research for y'all The 04/05 Rockets 3pt Attempts had Sura attempting 2.5/game (.08/min) hit 35.5%, David Wesley attempting 4.4/game (.13/min) hit 38.3%, Mike James attempting 4.0/game (.15/min) hit 39.3%, and Jon Barry attempting 2.5/game (.11/min) hit 45.1%. One must remember Wesley, James and Barry were brought in DURING the season. The front office was not satisfied with the team, and brought in 3 key role players to anchor the core of 3pt shooting. Those 3 guys shot better as Rockets that season than they did during the season before joining the team. They were great acquisitions to improve on what the team needed. Rafer Alston's 3ball attempts last year were 5.0/game (.13/min) hit 32.7%, two years ago were 4.9/game (.14/min) hit 35.7%, and 3 years ago attempted 5.3/game (.17/min) hit 37.1%. I find these stats extremely revealing. If Rafer shoots 36% from 3ball land this year, it will not be enough for success, in my opinion. Look at the per game and per minute 3pt attempts. Last year was not an abberation for Rafer in terms of volume shooting. He always shoots many treys. If he contintues to shoot this high number or treys he must shoot around 39% from 3ball land in my opinion. Look at the shot distribution of the 04/05 Rockets. In order for this years Rockets to succeed, they need to hit a high % of 3's as a team...that's the offensive philosophy. Simple math shows that if Rafer shoots high volume, he must shoot high % also. The same goes for T-Mac and Head. And this is also why Battier is shooting more treys now (I like...he can so be our Bruce Bowen). And this is why Novak should get more time in my opinion.
Off the topic. It is just sad that people seem completely forget Jason Kidd when they are mentioning elite PGs in the league these days. This guy is being ignored for several years while playing at a very high level. He is still a top 3 PG, IMO.
LOL ... can you get back to us when you find your credibility? You've been exposed multiple times as not understanding basic concepts of statistics or efficiency and most of your posts are just guesses. Remember how you bashed Mike James' shooting percentages because he was on a bad team, but said Rafer's would be so much higher if he wasn't on such a bad team? Mike James will "turn the ball over 3-5 more times" than Rafer certainly reminds me of the "James isn't half the rebounder Alston is" claim that we had to call you on. Totally baseless. And Mike James was being sought after to be the starting point guard here... sorry you're having a hard time accepting that since it sort of humbled you that the organization completely disagreed with you, but if you think the Rockets were going with a couple of 6-foot-2 starting guards again, you're puffing something. Rafer all but says as much in the article you're praising so highly. After all, what's the point of the article being based on Rafer not being appreciated because they sought a replacement when the replacement was just a shooting guard to play alongside him?
Well, to his defence Alston did have back to back games to play, as all the team, which is why many of the players were TO machines. It's possible these turnovers signified the defeat, since if the two teams were equal there, I think the Rox might have gotten off victorious(+5 for the Rox). That doesn't say anything. He did play a lot of minutes, which is surprising, considering Luther had lots too. Maybe for such games Spanoulis would be useful to rest him and give a different flavour to the style the team plays? Even if he is a TO machine(which he was preseason, but it's difficult to say in-season, since he roughly did play, this will not disappear by itself, if he keeps playing zero minutes. He must play some time, to gain some experience, if he's to replace Alston eventually, even if in 3 years time. Also, he may practice all he wants, but again he must be given time to display the improvement in his shot in real game conditions. Currently, I can just see him playing only in home games and big wins, which doesn't help him much in the long run. With this rate, he'll become useful after his 30's. Same stands for Novak. He must learn to play amyna(defence), but in the meantime, his shot could be utilised. IMO, maybe the coach can see something I don't which doesn't allow for these players to be used properly so far. Or just doesn't trust them, dunno. I can see the journalist was right after all. Spanoulis indeed, isn't a rotation player. Like I said elsewere, Alston's performance will be the barometer of the team this year, since he'll be dominating the point. For the good of the team, I wish for more vs Mavs performances. Else, maybe Head will prove to be stable which might be a good alternative.
Back to back road games later in the season might affect a player,but not now. Rafer's play isn't going to make or break us(as long as he isn't given carte blache to jack it up to his heart's delight) as we've got his replacement waiting to get on the court.Spanoulis is a rotation player and much more. Rafer on the other hand isn't going to magically find a J this far into his career. Face facts on Alston.Dude isn't a starting PG for a title team.Those same teammates that would have Rafer over James will be gaga over Billy.He brings what Rafer does and much more. OMT...Luther is playing out of position some,but has looked good this year overall.
Rotation worthy, for you and me yes, but it's obvious VG doesn't trust him still. And if he keeps mistrusting him, he'll stay there in the bench, maybe practicing 1000 shots, maybe 10000, but it will still not matter. I can see he'll need to work so hard just to gain a position in the team. I don't like it, but the coach makes the rules in the team. I do hope that VG will prove me wrong and use him more of course. As a Greek, I would like another Greek play and play well. But I can't force the coach to use him, it's his team, even if I believe he can play. I'm not a coach and he is for a reason.
i don't understand all the rafer hate. sure last season his shooting was pretty bad ... to say the least. but this year he's shooting at about 43% from 3pt land. He gets the ball up the floor so quickly and easily. He calls the right plays to get guys involved. Most of the time those guys get the ball. I actually see some good defence sometimes from skip. I didn't notice his d as bein among the "10 worst in the league" or w/e. I remember him stripping a lot of pgs and other players leading to steals. He knows how to play with Yao. That is another big thing. One of the few ppl who will get the ball to Yao consistently. I say we keep Rafer. I think he's the right pg for us. Maybe I'm biased with him bein Skip but I wanna see him take us far.
I guess we're just going to have to wait awhile. JVG is classicly tortured genius and I believe he is blinded by this at times. Whether he is the right man for this job remains to be seen.
I asked 'will Rafer shoot better from three-point range than James this season?' and your response was their numbers would be close. Since you said Rafer was shooting better from three than James, I asked a yes/no question to see if you think that will hold up all season. No, it isn't... for the reasons I outlined. Look at SamFisher's Shaq-Yao career numbers comparison. Based on career numbers, you take Shaq... based on career trend and the here and now, you obviously go Yao. Over the past two seasons, there is quite a bit of difference between Mike James and Rafer Alston as far as three-point shooting goes... and they were both on the same two teams (Rockets and Raptors) during that span. Nothing really. Rafer is not a good defender, but that's not my beef with him. If he's hitting around 40% of his threes, I'm pretty much fine with Rafer. I'm just amused terribly by the dolts who think he doesn't have to shoot well when he's currently putting up 7 threes a night. If Mike James was putting up 7 threes a night here, he'd be getting lambasted as selfish by those same people. Amen to that. I'm hoping the same for Rafer. Some seem to think to criticize Rafer is to hate him... pfft, not my problem if they can't read. He just needs to shoot open shots better. Last year he was really bad. Now I don't have a lot of faith that he will, but I'm hoping he will and the preseason and first two games were positive signs. I'm also not trying to make a Mike James thread either... I've discussed that to death. But I had to respond when you brought him up because yeah, I'd still take James over Rafer because I believe his strengths are the more important needs for the Rockets at the position.
I'm betting SamFisher, if he ever agrees to the specifics, that Rafer will be within 2% points or better than Mike James behind the arc. That's even a MORE specific answer to your question. ...and maybe Rafer will continue his crap shooting. But I'm putting my (tipjar) money where my mouth is that Mike James will slump back to his career averages and that Rafer will have a (near) career year this season. I'm not pulling that out of my arse ...I have very specific reasons why I feel that way although I'll grant you that it is only my opinion and most want to see it before they beleive it. No, Rafer needs to shoot well. Everybody wanted to trade Rafer this summer but I wanted to wait and see if Rafer could step it up this season ...and so far he has. If he finishes the season shooting 42% from behind the arc, I'll be very pleased with that. Below 40% after a couple months, the Rockets need to keep looking for a new PG. In the meantime, the Rockets need to look for a better PF option. I'd say PF spot is CLEARLY a bigger priority than replacing Rafer. I'm mad that James crapped on us by pulling the 11th hour stunt. So the fact that Rafer is actually playing well and James is so far no longer overacheiving, it makes me feel better about the situation. So sue me.
Player--3ptAttempts/game--3ptAttempts/min--3pt shooting % Code: <table border="1" width="50" > <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Michael Finley </td> <td> 3.62/gm </td> <td> .14/min </td> <td> 39.4% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Manu Ginobili </td> <td> 3.34/gm </td> <td> .12/min </td> <td> 38.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Bruce Bowen </td> <td> 2.99/gm </td> <td> .09/min </td> <td> 42.4% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Brent Barry </td> <td> 2.73/gm </td> <td> .16/min </td> <td> 39.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Nick Van Exel </td> <td> 2.37/gm </td> <td> .16/min </td> <td> 35.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Spurs </td> <td> Robert Horry </td> <td> 2.29/gm </td> <td> .12/min </td> <td> 36.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> Raja Bell </td> <td> 5.65/gm </td> <td> .15/min </td> <td> 44.2% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> Steve Nash </td> <td> 4.33/gm </td> <td> .12/min </td> <td> 43.9% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> Eddie House </td> <td> 3.90/gm </td> <td> .22/min </td> <td> 38.9% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> James Jones </td> <td> 3.80/gm </td> <td> .22/min </td> <td> 38.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> Shawn Marion </td> <td> 3.58/gm </td> <td> .09/min </td> <td> 33.1% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Suns </td> <td> Leandro Barbosa </td> <td> 3.44/gm </td> <td> .12/min </td> <td> 44.4% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mavs </td> <td> Jason Terry </td> <td> 5.20/gm </td> <td> .15/min </td> <td> 41.1% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mavs </td> <td> Dirk Nowitzki </td> <td> 3.35/gm </td> <td> .09/min </td> <td> 40.6% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mavs </td> <td> Keith Van Horn </td> <td> 2.57/gm </td> <td> .12/min </td> <td> 36.8% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mavs </td> <td> Jerry Stackhouse </td> <td> 2.36/gm </td> <td> .09/min </td> <td> 27.7% </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Mavs </td> <td> Josh Howard </td> <td> 1.07/gm </td> <td> .03/min </td> <td> 42.9% </td> </tr> </table> Phoenix, San Antonio, and Dallas were #1, #2, and #4 in the West last year in 3pt shooting percentage. The Rockets want to be Western elite this year and they know that they need to shoot well in order to do that. I've already shown their success in this category 2 years ago in my previous post at the top of the page. I have mixed feelings towards Rafer, but I'm glad that there seems to be a consensus now (at least among the somewhat reasonable and knowledgeable posters) that Rafer needs to shoot around 39% from 3ball if he continues to put up high volume shots. If Rafer hits his career average of around 36%, he needs to cut down to around 2.5 3pt attempts per game. Same goes for T-Mac. If the Rockets want to anchor their 3pt shooting with T-Mac, Rafer, Head, and Battier (as the trend seems to be the first few games), then Battier needs to continue shooting a lot of 3's, Rafer and Luther needs to continue to shoot well, and T-Mac needs to improve. If that doesn't happen, then new players will be needed to anchor the 3pt shot, either from within (Novak) or the outside (trades).
I had done some analysis around the topic of 3p% as well. It got lost in some of the discussion I had regarding pythagorean method, winning pct and w-l record projection. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=119315 On the 3p% I estimate that Rafer needs to be shooting at about 42% (2.1/5), 53% 2-ptrs (1.7/3.2), overall fg% of 46% (3.8/8.2). There are alot of assumptions that you have to fix to make the estimates - the main ones being: *Rockets holding a DRtg of 103.3 (same as last year) *Same # of FGA's as last year (76) *Rockets needing to manufacture 1.5 more 2-ptrs and 1 more 3-ptr made (per 76 FGA's) *the following shot distribution and fg%'s: [EDIT: POSTED THE WRONG TABLE - UPDATED FOR CORRECT ONE] Code: Player FGM FGA FG% %FGA Tmac 9.2 21.5 42.79 19.33 Yao 8.2 15.8 51.89 14.2 Alston 3.8 8.2 46.34 7.37 J. Ho 4.9 10.7 45.79 9.62 Snyder 2.4 5.7 42.1 5.12 Battier 3.8 8.4 45.23 7.55 L. Head 3.7 7.9 46.83 7.1 Wells 5.1 10.9 46.78 9.8 Hayes 1.5 2.6 57.69 2.33 Span 1 2.7 37.03 2.42 Novak 2 3.7 54.05 3.32 Deke 0.8 1.5 53.33 1.34 Lucas 1.1 2.8 39.28 2.51 Padgett 1.5 3.5 42.85 3.14 KJ 0.5 1.8 27.77 1.61 TOTALS 49.5 107.7 45.96 1 (fg% represent a mix of career avgs or season bests for the individuals above EXCEPT FOR HEAD, ALSTON, AND TMAC - see next bullet) *A combination of Luther, Rafer, and TMac increasing offensive efficiency from last year to gain the +1.5 2-ptrs and +1 3-ptr per game overall for the Rockets. In other words Rafer needs to improve his offensive efficiency quite a bit in this scenario.
Since this inevitably turned into a Mike James thread. he's en fuego tonight vs. Sacto, he's 6-7 for 18 pts with 10 minutes left in the third. EDIT: make that 8-13, 23 pts, 3-4 from distance in 33 minutes, 4 assists, 4 rebounds. On the negative side he has an unusually high 4 TO (the last of which was not his fault as Ricky Davis fell down as he passed him the bal on a 2-on-1) I guess that's to be expected, he's got a contract to play for next decade. Minnesota lost because nobody besides James could buy a basket and their interior defense was terrible. Lots of plays down the stretch was James tossing the ball to Ricky Davis or Troy Hudson, who would go one on one and miss.
That's great stuff Tango. I think there are too many assumptions though, but I understand the necessity of them to have control data. You should work for the Rockets...they're hiring gm assistents with statistical expertise...like real eductation. I don't think Rafer needs to shoot 42% from 3, just 39% in my opinion...your statistics are better, but I think Shane Battier totally trippling his 3 pt shooting volume will help the Rockets big time. I know Battier has never been a volume shooter in the Memphis system, but so far in the preseason and first 3 games, the Rockets have really looked to get Battier the corner 3, not just have him naturally get 3's in the system...they've looked for him too, and his increased volume has been accompanied by high % too, so that's great. The second thing you said Rafer needed (46% overall, 54% on 2's) is almost impossible in my opinion. He's a career 38.7% shooter overall and 41.1% shooter on 2-pointers...so he's not a great finisher at the hoop compared to other penetrators, and his midrange game is not good. So if the Rockets success depends on Rafer shooting that well from 2 and overall, then they're doomed. The 3pt stuff, I'm not so worried about. It's very, very early, but he's on track with his 3pt shooting. And if he dips down to the 36% stuff, JVG will definitely force him to lower his attempts to 2.5 a game...for it's already been shown that 36% 3pt shooting at 5 to 7 attempts per game would be the death to the Rockets offense. Head would get more time, Novak would get more time, and there are tradeable assets the Rockets have.
With all that's been said, what we do know, and what is indisputable, is that Rafer is an adequate shooter from distance, low-turnover guy, sound floor leader and someone who can get the ball to his offensive stars when and where they need it any and every time down the floor. An even better sign? ALL of his shots come within the flow of the offense. Nothing is rushed or forced. I think that's the biggest difference between him and James. Rafer's 3's (even if he takes 7 per game) are all within the flow of the offensive game plan. Many of James' FGA's were isolation shots and shots that disrupted rhythm and balance. Rafer has a "team first" mentality, which is why he has been successful as the Rockets' PG. James' game is about numbers and it's been noted of his selfish nature, this past offseason being a prime example. James is the better scorer and defensive player. Alston is the better point guard, passer, rebounder and is more efficient at setting tempo and maintaining the offensive balance and structure of a team. So, tell me-- with a team of scorers (Yao, TMac, Wells, Snyder) and defenders (Battier, Hayes, Head, Snyder), who would fit this team ideally as the point guard, and who would be the better fit overall for this team right now?
Rockets111, I disagree with your opinion and I believe that I've watched a lot more Rockets basketball critically and I've analyzed a lot of stats within context too...but I respect your opinion. I believe you have some flawed beliefs and misconceptions, but that's okay...it's fine to disagree. I think Rafer is fine this year as long as he keeps his 3pt shooting above 38%, ideally 39-42%, then he should play 35 minutes a game. I've already stated, the worse he shoots, the less minutes and shot attempts he gets. There are many players who'd be a better PG for this team: Billups, Derron Williams, Jameer Nelson, etc., but who'd be available? If Rafer isn't going to shoot well enough to get starter minutes, who would get those minutes? Head or VSpan? I'm not so sure. I'd trade for the following, or anyone better, but I think these guys might be attainable: Earl Watson Derek Fisher Steve Blake...maybe There's just not much out there...I would have liked Mike James, but that is history now.
