I mean are all those who think the Chinese are not planing to attack living with your heads in the sand? Their entire buildup is predicated on a lightning offensive that would turn Taiwan into a ruin before we could react. Read my first post on this subject. And for those who say the Chinese military is not as advanced as us..... they've definitely made quantum leaps recently, especially in terms of their C3 (command/control/communications) capability. They are trying to buy airborne early warning platforms like our E-3 AWACS planes abroad and we recently had to prevent Israel from selling them some. Don't dismiss the Russian military technology because in several areas, their planes are as good or better than ours. For example, their short range air-to-air missile, the A-A-10, is one of the most advanced in the world and is the first dogfight missile with all-aspect capability, meaning a pilot could shoot anytime at an enemy aircraft, not just with him in the classic "six o'clock" position directly astern. A Su-27 could shoot these missiles if flying alongside its target, the pilot using a helmet-mounted sight we have yet to deploy. We don't have a dogfight missile that is even close. Our best dogfight missile the Sidewinder is 20+ years old, even in the newest version. They don't even need aircraft carriers to take Taiwan. Since it is well within range of their aircraft (and this has been extended thanks to the air-to-air Il-76 refuelling planes the Russkies sold 'em), they don't even require a carrier to maintain control of the airspace over Taiwan. And for our nukes deterring them from an invasion, get real. They know we wouldn't use nukes unless they did against us. So if they keep it conventional (non-nuke), our retaliatory ability is nil. Folks, they are not responding to our "aggressiveness." They've been carefully planning for the day when they retake their renegade province, control the Taiwan Straits and there will be not a damned thing we can except whine. It will be as Shakespeare said: How do we solve this? Make sure they know our intentions in this area. One perceived bit of weakness on our part will lead to the enslavement of the Taiwanese people. Clinton, to his credit, understood this and sent a carrier battle group to let China know we were serious when they threatened several years ago. We must react immediately and swiftly to such bellicose language. It might be time to schedule some "exercises" just like they do in the Straits. Bush and the Pentagon are doing the right thing.
I don't know if this has been address in this thread, but why is it the U.S. business whether China invades Taiwan or not. I believe that Taiwan should have its only independence from China, but I do not think that the U.S. should interfere, this civil war is between China and Taiwan. The conflict between the two countries happened over 50 years ago and it still has not been resolved, and they should resolve it themselves.
The US returns a volley of rhetoric...I wonder why the US is sending out the message that "China is our enemy" right now? It seems like something that could wait for awhile. "Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses," the DoD reports states. "Privately, however, China's leaders probably view ASAT systems -- and offensive counterspace systems, in general -- as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities." Pentagon Report: China's Space Warfare Tactics Aimed at U.S. Supremacy By Leonard David Senior Space Writer 08:30 am ET 01 August 2003 China appears to be sharpening its war fighting space skills, from creating anti-satellite weaponry, building new classes of heavy-lift and small boosters, as well as improving an array of military space systems. That judgment comes courtesy of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) which earlier this week released its annual report to Congress: The Military Power of the People's Republic of China. The report focuses on the current and probable future course of that country's growing military-technological prowess, including the use of space to assure military advantage. Anti-satellite laser work Flagged in the report is China's work in electronic warfare. In particular, the country is procuring state-of-the-art technology to improve its intercept, direction finding, and jamming capabilities. A possible target for the jammers: receivers utilized in the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite constellation. The report also underscores China's "robust" research and development program for laser weapons. In 1999, the Chinese displayed a portable laser weapon, advertised for blinding human vision and electro-optical sensors. In addition, a radio-frequency weapons program is likely in place. "Beijing may have acquired high-energy laser equipment that could be used in the development of ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons," the DoD report says. Lightning attacks This year's report cites a comment from Captain Shen Zhongchang from the Chinese Navy Research Institute. He envisions, according to the DoD, a weaker military defeating a superior one by attacking its space-based communications and surveillance systems. "The mastery of outer space will be a requisite for military victory, with outer space becoming the new commanding heights for combat," Shen is quoted as saying. He also is quoted in the report as observing that "lightning attacks and powerful first strikes will be more widely used in the future." In future wars, Shen highlights radar, radio stations, communications facilities, and command ships as priority targets vulnerable to smart weapons, electronic attack, and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons. Parasitic microsatellites Improving space-based reconnaissance and surveillance technologies is high on China's agenda. "These systems, when fully deployed, will provide a robust and versatile space reconnaissance capability with regional coverage," the just released DoD report explains. "Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent or slow the development of U.S. anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and space-based missile defenses," the DoD reports states. "Privately, however, China's leaders probably view ASAT systems -- and offensive counterspace systems, in general -- as well as space-based missile defenses as inevitabilities." Meanwhile, the report adds, China is said to be acquiring a variety of foreign technologies that could be used to develop its own satellite-killing capability. On this score, China already may possess the ability to damage optical sensors on some spacecraft - at least those vulnerable to laser damage. Ground-based, satellite-blinding laser weaponry is likely being pursued. "Given China's current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future," the report notes. China is also thought on a path toward a direct-ascent ASAT system. This hardware could be fielded in the 2005-2010 timeframe, the DoD asserts. Space interceptors can destroy targets in space. Moreover, the report highlights a Hong Kong newspaper account in January 2001 that claimed China had developed and tested an ASAT system using a "parasitic microsatellite." Although the DoD review says this claim cannot be confirmed, it points out that home-grown microsatellite and nanosatellite technologies are being proliferated by a number of nations. New booster families In the booster department, China is proceeding with building a new modular family of heavy-lift launchers. Additionally, a new small, solid-propellant space lifter is being developed. A family of these smaller boosters would provide China the ability to hurl small satellites into orbit. This class of booster would give China a rapid launch capability, "and has broad military, civil, and commercial applications," the DoD report observes. As for China's human spaceflight program, the DoD acknowledges the fact that the country's first manned space mission may occur this year. "China also has long-term plans to launch its own space station, and possibly a reusable space plane as well. While one of the strongest immediate motivations for this program appears to be political prestige, China's manned space efforts almost certainly will contribute to improved military space systems in the 2010-2020 timeframe," the report concludes. Lots of action-reaction In reviewing the DoD report, some Western China watchers don't see anything startling or new in the assessment of Chinese space interests. But the report does wave a cautionary flag, according to one expert. "Still lots of speculation of what the Chinese might be developing," said Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the Naval War College’s National Security Decision Making Department in Newport, Rhode Island. "Regarding space specifically, both countries see space as so vital to their futures," Johnson-Freese told SPACE.com. "Actions by one are seen as nearly zero-sum to the other," she said. Johnson-Freese said that the Chinese have read the 2001 Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization as suggesting the inevitability that space will become a battleground. Therefore, the U.S. would be remiss not to prepare. "They also note that in the first U.S. Space War Game in 2001, American forces were pitted against an opponent threatening a small neighbor. Subsequently, the Chinese view that they would be remiss not to prepare for the inevitability of U.S. development of space weapons." There are lots of "inevitabilities" in both U.S. and China camps, Johnson-Freese said, that were not considered inevitabilities five years ago. "Lots of action-reaction on both sides," she added. Targets for preemption Dean Cheng, Research Analyst with Project Asia at the CNA Corporation in Washington, D.C., has also perused the DoD report on China. "I think that the Second Gulf War highlighted, on the one hand, the dependence of the United States on space-based systems, which China's People's Liberation Army cannot help but notice and note," Cheng said. "Space assets gave U.S. forces a significant edge, and that is something that the Chinese have noticed." Cheng said the DoD report correctly observes that the Chinese are showing an interest in the topic of physical attack against satellites. "It would be dangerous and foolhardy, in my opinion, to either ignore such reports, or worse to pooh-pooh them. Given the degree of American reliance on satellite systems, it would behoove us to consider the prospect of attack against our space-based infrastructure from all potential sources, and to explore and, where possible, undertake countermeasures against such possibilities," Cheng told SPACE.com. As the DoD report notes, Cheng said, "the Chinese have highlighted space systems as targets for preemption. That should only make us pay more attention to improving the survivability of the American space force."
Because they are our allies, and have been since they originally formed a government separate from the mainland. Because they are a democracy, and we should not stand by while a democracy is rolled over by a totalitarian government. Because our security guarantees are the only thing keeping Taiwan from going nuclear. Because abandoning our long-time ally would potentially destabilize all of East Asia, as countries like Japan and South Korea would wonder how much our security guarantees are worth in the face of PRC aggression, potentially nuclearizing all of East Asia. Not a pretty picture. Because it is the right thing to do.
Here are the problems with your argument......... 1. We are bound by LAW to defend Taiwan. If we go back on our word and allow the PRC to enslave Taiwan, who the hell will trust us then? We are bound by both treaty and an executive order, which carries the weight of statute law, to defend Taiwan. 2. You favor independence for Taiwan, yet you claim it is a "civil war?" A civil war is an internal war, so how can the PRC attacking an independent Taiwan be considered a "civil war" when one sovereign, independent state attacks another? 3. The PRC would be more than happy to resolve it themselves....with an invasion. Face it, the PRC is a growing threat to our national security and has been since the nineties. These folks have intervened in our elective process, stolen nuclear secrets, bought our satellite technology with an apparent quid pro quo with donations from various PRC front groups to Clinton's 1996 election campaign. The Chinese are bent on a strategy of building themselves up with an eye to an eventual confrontation, all under the guise of being "threatened" by us. I'm glad that the President is finally getting serious with these punks. They only understand strength.
Reasonable arguments can be made whether Taiwan can or should have full de-facto independence. But I'm not here to argue this, at least in this post. But it's important to understand that with respect to Taiwan, the PRC govt's policy has never been to "enslave" or rule over Taiwan. Its sole foreign policy aim has been to ensure that Taiwan remain part of "China" even if it is only symbolic. The PRC once made an offer to resolve the conflict whereby the mainland govt would give full recognition of Taiwan's govt to rule itself, even allowing Taiwan to keep its own separate armed forces, and the mainland would renounce invasion of Taiwan as long as Taiwan acknowledges it is part of "one China" and renounces independence. Is this a good deal for Taiwan? Probably not if you feel strongly that Taiwan has the "right" to be independent. But the point is that the PRC govt is mainly interested in symbolic unfication and does not have a strong interest to install its own govt in Taiwan.
The PRC armed forces are very outdated and obsolete so understandably it will try to modernize itself. Of course this means it has a greater ability to threaten US interests. But on the other hand, what do you really expect China to do, renounce war, dismantle its armed forces and trust the US and other potentially hostile countries to look out for legitimate Chinese interests? Although China is in a much more precarious security situation than most other nations (being next to the likes of Russia, North Korea, Afghanistan, etc), its armed forces are quite modest and is mainly defensive in nature. With the exception of the 1979 invasion of Vietnam and its defensive war in Korea to prevent the US from possibly threatening and invading China in 1950, it has never waged any prolonged war on any territory it explicitly recognized as not being part of China. This in contrast to dozens of US actions on foreign soil, many of which have questionable legitimacy or morality. Am I saying China is a peace-loving, innocent nation that only wants to protect itself? Not at all. It is a large, normal nation with its own interests to protect but in modern history for its size, its actions have been fairly restrained. It is hard to imagine that if the US was situated where China is situated today, that it would have been similarly restrained. Therefore, when one talks about the threat of China modernizing its armed forces, it is understandable that one is alarmed by it but that view must be balanced by the fact that any govt in the situation of China would do no less and probably much more than what China is doing right now.
has anybody here ever read these books: 1421: The Year China Discovered America by Gavin Menzies (Author) Menzies makes the fascinating argument that the Chinese discovered the Americas a full 70 years before Columbus. guess columbus only got credit for discovering america since he's white. ever wonder where columbus got those maps to america from? chinese invented them. white people thought the earth was flat. WHEN CHINA RULED THE SEAS by Louise Levathes (Author) Levathes argues that China could have employed its navy--with some 3000 vessels, the largest in history until the present century--to establish a great colonial empire 100 years before the age of European exploration and expansion; instead, the Chinese abruptly dismantled their navy. apparently, imperialism was considered un-confucian. China has been fairly restrained. they should take over the US too. we discovered it first after all. aim missiles at the white house. fire away. anybody ever notice how some native americans look like chinese?
what i said was sarcastic and meant as a joke. But those books really do exist. go to amazon or barnes and nobles and read about it if you want. and what i said about native americans is also true in some cases.
Political posturing is standard proceedure for nations on the world stage. Nations with lessor armed forces tend to bluster in the face of the more powerful ones to cover their inferiority, That being said most of world conflicts have their roots in economic causes and I just don't see any economic motivation in the China/Taiwan conflict. A large amount of the investment needed for the industrialization of coastal China comes from Taiwan. The end user for most of the goods created there is the United States. The only hope China has for economic modernization is to maintain these commercial ties. Why kill the goose with the golden egg. So China sees Taiwan as the enclave of an otherwise defeated civil foe. We see Taiwan as the last haven for our World War 2 allies and a toehold of democratic capitalism on the Asian continent. Both views seem outdated and destined to change.
yeah and the native americans discovered america a hell of a lot earlier than the chinese so what is your point? and why are you trying to rip on white people? where did race get brought into the discussion?
bama...you have no clue what you are talking about. first of all...TAIWAN IS NOT INDEPENDENT...how hard is that to understand? i've wrote about this about 50 times in this thread...go back and read what i wrote and open your eyes up. second...the PRC is not a growing threat to our national security. if anything they are going to be one of the most positive things for us in the next 20 to 30 years. why? because they are concerned with making money and building their economy just like us. with a growing chinese market that means the american markets will grow with them. the chinese and americans are doing the best they can right now to overcome their differences in the past to build a future of peace so the economies can expand. china understands that military expansionism and hegemony is not going to work in the future and they are doing their best to try to get involved in multilateral frameworks throughout asia. the same goes for us in asia as well. the US is trying to be involved in these same organizations so we can promote peace and stability and economic growth. the china you are trying to create in your mind simply does not exist. they are not trying to undermine our power in asia in any way. i really don't feel like saying the same freaking things over and over again to people who don't even bother to read them in the first place.
If you were right then the PRC would not be purchasing force projection hardware. They would not be building a blue water navy. It is completely unnecessary for 'defensive' purposes. If the 'Chinese understand expansionism is not going to work in the future' why are they expanding their military presence in the Spratly Islands, disputed territory that is claimed by multiple Southeast Asian countries. They are not working through ASEAN or other multilateral security frameworks to resolve this dispute, they are militarily seizing the territory. Even if you could prove what 'the Chinese' know, which you are hopelessly unable to do, the mere existence of the capability to choke of SLOCs in East Asia is a national security threat that has to be planned for by the Pentagon.
In the words of Lenin, you are what he would term a "useful idiot." How do you know for certain that china understands that military expansionism and hegemony is not going to work in the future ? If you read my post, you would see that they are spending exorbiant amounts of hard currency on offensive weapons systems and are actively developing ways to negate our GPS system, which our precision-guided munitions depend on for their accuracy and our entire force structure depends on for navigation. They are not making money for the sake of making money or to improve the lives of the average Chinese. They are doing it to be able to buy new weapons and weapons technologies, pure and simple, be it in hard currency from the Russkies or espionage from us. These are not the moves of a state that isnot trying to undermine our power in asia in any way. These are the moves of a state that is trying to become a major military and economic player on the world stage. YOU are the one who needs to open their eyes. Did you not read my first post on this subject? They are preparing for war, plain and simple.
I'm afraid you don't understand the viewpoint of why mainland Chinese and the PRC govt want to formally reunify Taiwan. It is certainly NOT due to economic reasons nor is it due to wanting to directly rule Taiwan. It is due almost entirely to nationalistic reasons. Taiwan was part of China for centuries then was lost to Japan for 50 years as part of a humiliating defeat in a series of humiliating defeats to foreign powers. One of the primary goals of the KMT and later the PRC govts was to make China whole again. After WWII, Taiwan was restored to China as part of the peace agreements but split again from mainland China when KMT forces retreated there and was protected by the US in the aftermath of the Korean War. For emtional, nationalist reasons, many Chinese do NOT want to see Taiwan permanently made its own state as it would represent lost of Chinese territory that they have not yet renounced. But for the PRC govt, they have said it is enough and consider the conflict resolved if Taiwan and mainland China simply fly the same flag (doesn't have to be the PRC flag) symbolically as part of one China but allow Taiwan to continue to rule itself and have its own armed forces. For Americans its hard to understand this viewpoint but I can somewhat understand it.
According to the CIA fact book, many of the claimants occupy various barren rocks in the Spratly Islands not just China. It is therefore misleading to say that only China militarily occupies the Spratlys, as they all do. Much of it is a at and mouse games where one nation sends a ship to plant a flag and some tents on some barren rock, then after a while it is taken down by someone else, etc. But I have not read that there has been any major military installations or presence in most of the Spratlys by anyone. None of the islands really can support such installations anyway. It also states that China is in fact working with ASEAN to try to resolve this dispute. See: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pg.html I haven't heard much news that China has made any significant military moves in the Spratlys. In any case, the main reason China is building a stronger navy is almost entirely due to the conflict over Taiwan. China's navy already far outclasses the navies of all of the over claimants over the Spratly Islands.
actually, native americans were descendants of chinese. and about what i said about columbus, it was a joke. get a sense of humor. sensitive aren't you? just messing with you. i just find it funny, how some people think of china as this enemy who's trying to conquer the world or something. so i made a couple sarcastic remarks about going after the united states too since native americans were originally chinese. if you look at history in the past, the us even grouped chinese and native americans together as one race. and it is kind of funny to me how white people always say go back to your own country whenever something negative is reported about china, so actually, if you look back at history, the united states is my own country, cause chinese discovered it first and definitely before white people.
It is a civil war. Like other posters have stated, Taiwan is not a sovereign, independent state, it is still part of China. The civil war between the communist and nationalist party took place in the late 1940s, and the nationalist party moved their government to Taiwan when it was losing the war to the communist in mainland China. Taiwan, the island itself, belongs to China, for it was return to China by the Japanese after WWII, and the nationalist party just settled in it. I think China thinks of Taiwan as being part of China and I see their side. I think of it kinda like, and this is only how I see, if a small number of people in the U.S. decided that they didn't like the government and formed their own independent government and moved their government into and somehow took over Hawaii. Would the U.S. just let another government take over one of its states. Hell no, it would do everything it can to get it back. Like others have posted, China wants Taiwan back for nationalist reasons.
Irrelevant. None of this has any bearing on whether or not China is seeking to expand militarily. As their capabilities expand their aggressiveness in the area expands. The PRC has always said ASEAN was a place to 'exchange information, not for negotiation.' In late November 1999 officials of ASEAN agreed to draft regional code of conduct to prevent conflicts over the Spratly Islands in advance of the ASEAN summit in Manila. The Philippines, which drafted much of the proposed code, sought to align ASEAN's members in a common stance against what it sees as Chinese expansionism in the Spratlys. China agreed to hold talks with ASEAN member nations on the newly formulated draft code of conduct. But China, which claims the entire South China Sea, signalled it was not ready to agree to the ASEAN draft. Vietnam wanted the code to cover the Paracels while Malaysia did not want the code to refer to all of the South China Sea. China, which is not an ASEAN member and claims all of the islands, opposes inclusion of the Paracels in the code. http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/ops/war/spratly.htm It seems pretty clear that many southeast asian nations DO NOT share your view. In fact they see the PRC's efforts in the Spratly's 'as Chinese expansionism.' To date, military confrontation has been limited and the number of casualties have been low. Yet, failure to peacefully resolve sovereignty disputes places the region in a fragile state of stability. Exploration endeavors undertaken by China in March 1997 increase the uncertainty surrounding China's willingness to cooperate on sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea and raise the question of what are China's larger, regional intentions. In a 1996 analysis of China's military modernization program, author Felix Chang identifies control over the Spratly Islands as a long- term objective of China. According to Chang, China will refrain from igniting a full-fledged military assault until it is certain that its military forces are strong enough to dominate the forces of others. China has provoked, however, limited military clashes in pursuit of exerting control in the region...China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in 1996 and its aggressive behavior in the Spratly Islands may be indicative of China's larger, long-term regional ambitions. Thus, China's actions in the Spratly Islands may form one part of China's plan to exert greater control in the larger East/Southeast Asian region. See: Chang, Felix K. "Beyond the Unipolar Moment: Beijing's Reach in the South China Sea." Orbis. Summer 1996: 353-374. In addition, the US would have no choice but to open the sea lanes in the area should China engage and destroy the other SE Asian navies making claims on the Spratly's. "More than half of the world's annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through the Straits of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok, with the majority continuing on into the South China Sea. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Malacca leading into the South China Sea is more than three times greater than Suez Canal traffic, and well over five times more than the Panama Canal. Virtually all shipping that passes through the Malacca and Sunda Straits must pass near the Spratly Islands." Siezure of the Spratly's requires a capability the PRC does not currently have, hence a drive to acquire a capability to take on the US Navy. In the end, though, it doesn't matter whether the buildup is for Taiwan or for the Spratly's. The buildup is clearly to enable to PRC to commit forces in action against the US Navy. That sounds like a national security threat to me.
