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Chasing trades for Super Stars may be fool's gold

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sweet Lou 4 2, Mar 18, 2011.

  1. Liberon

    Liberon Rookie

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    You got Tayshaun and Rip running their opposition right into the path of Big Ben every single games... But that Pistons team is more a less a joint effort.... No superstars really and that's what we should aspire to become with our current group.
     
  2. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    If you just want a 2nd tier superstar whose number the Rockets may be be able to retire, you may have a point. If you want a 1st tier, championship leading superstar that can hang a few more championship banners from the rafters you are dead wrong.
     
  3. intergalactic

    intergalactic Member

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    It's true that most serious contenders got an eventual superstar in the draft. But does this mean we should tank? Maybe, maybe not.

    If you look at the league now, there are only 10-15 players who could at one time be considered a franchise player (LBJ, Wade, Durant, Duncan, Howard, Dirk, Rose, DWilliams, Chris Paul, Garnett, Nash, Shaq, Kobe, ..) Given the lengths of NBA careers, that means there is around 1 superstar available per draft.

    So let's say you tank your way into the bottom 5 in the league, a very serious rebuild. You still only have a 1/5 chance of getting your superstar. This means you should expect a serious rebuilding to last 4-5 years. If you're lucky, you might get your turn it around early like OKC. But you can also end up in a 10 year rebuild like Minnesota. This approach still takes good management, as well as a huge amount of luck.

    On the other hand, let's say you develop an above average team, and then use a trade to hit a homerun (I'd put the recent Celtics, Pistons, and recent Lakers in this category). This takes a bit less luck, and more good trading/management. However, it's hard to measure your odds in this approach because we don't know just how much better you can manage your team than the next guy.

    I think you could argue that management does have a very large effect. If it didn't, you wouldn't see the same franchises (LA, Boston, San Antonio) winning year after year even as many of their key players have changed.
     
  4. FR0497

    FR0497 Member

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    Or unless the player is forcing the teams hand. It's definitely not a "Hell NO" since two Tier 1 players (imo) were traded this year alone in D-Will and Melo. We also got T-Mac by trade when he was considered a Tier 1 player.
     
  5. Victorious

    Victorious Member

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    Kobe, the best player in the NBA, acquired via trade. So was Shaq (FA) and now Pau. Proably one of the best teams post Jordan/dream era. So it's very possible to build through trades. Didn't we just try the "draft a star" route with Yao Ming? That didn't work out well for us. My point being, you can't pinpoint rebuilding a team to just one aspect. You do it through the draft and through good trades. Most of teams you listed didn't become elite until they made significant trades or Fa signing to add to their drafted "star".
     
  6. Prince

    Prince Member

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    and Shaq.
     
  7. Prince

    Prince Member

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    and Clyde...
     
  8. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    I'm sure this has been said, but blowing up the team and tanking, hoping to get a superstar in the draft, is probably a bigger crapshoot than hoping to be able to trade for an established superstar.

    Even if we do tank and get a great player, there's the risk that the team will suck or be mediocre because we got rid of all of our auxiliary players.

    Gotta stick to the plan. This team is built to surround a great player, with the assets to trade for one. Can't just change course on a whim.
     
  9. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    LOL. There goes whatever little credibility you had left...

    Stockton, Malone 2nd tier superstars? Hahaha.
     
  10. meh

    meh Member

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    ANYTHING can be "fool's gold".

    Sitting on our asses with our players may be fool's gold.

    Tanking may be fool's gold.

    Trading for stars may be fool's gold.

    Trying for hitting big in FA may be fool's gold.

    There are no guarantees with ANY philosophy. The Rockets management does not control everything. They can tank and end up with the next Yao instead of the next Duncan. They can stay put and be like the Pacers-west. They can try to trade for a superstar and end up never getting one. They can try to clear capspace and nobody comes.

    I mean, why do you think Morey keeps talking about flexibility? It's because when you're not certain which direction is the best, you need to keep your options open.

    What are the Rockets options?

    1. Tank? Very easily done just by trading Scola and Martin for picks
    2. Trade? Doing that through accumulating assets
    3. Free Agency? The Rockets can literally clear most of their cap in 2012 with the next batch of superstars going on the market.

    In the end, it's funny how fans here keep complaining how the Rockets "have no direction". Yet if we actually chose one direction to go, then the team would literally be locked into that and would pass up other potential ways to become a contender again.
     
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  11. New Generation

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    Couldn't have worded it any better myself. People act like the only way to succeed is that we HAVE to tank, or we HAVE to trade, or we HAVE to draft a star, and this will lead to success. But there are only a handful of true All-Stars in each option, and we're only one team out of 30
     
  12. ashishduh

    ashishduh Member

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    Actually, this team can't tank by trading away Scola and Martin, Lowry/Lee/Bud/Pat/Hayes is not a tanking team. That's kinda the point, tanking is not actually an option.

    Agree with rest of post.
     
  13. JLOBABYDADDY

    JLOBABYDADDY Member

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    Is this another tank thread?
     
  14. rpr52121

    rpr52121 Sober Fan
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    1. Your spinning my words. I never said that.

    3. Malone and Stockton were borderline Tier 1 superstars. Why borderline? Because combined, they could not beat Hakeem and Jordan to win a title.

    2. ashishduh, since when were you the arbitrator on credibility?
     
  15. parmesh

    parmesh Member

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    Lakers traded for Kobe, remember? Divac for Kobe, after Kobe secretly pressured management into getting him to LA.
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Dude... Stockton, Malone, Nash, Reggie Miller, etc. are or will be Hall of Famers and can/could certainly be leading players on title-winning teams. The fact that they didn't quite have enough talent around them, or enough good luck to win it all doesn't mean you don't want these guys as foundation pieces for your squad. Pierce, too, was a star in his own right by every objective measure, hampered only by never having a good team around him until recent years.

    If all you want are "first tier" superstars, as in only guys who are the best players on not just one but "a few" championship teams, then tell me how many guys drafted with a top 5 pick over the last, say, 15 years fit that criteria? What are the chances your top 5 pick ends up being a "first tier superstar"?
     
  17. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Trying to win a championship is fool's gold. :)
     
  18. FR0497

    FR0497 Member

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    That is a terrible way to Tier players. You cannot judge a player based on the talent they are forced to play with. Amare and Melo will not win this year and they are Tier 1 players. More obvious Tier 1 players....Wade and James who imo will not win this year either.
     
  19. k-money

    k-money Member

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    picking between the 12-18 range isnt bad. wasnt kobe drafted no.13?
     
  20. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    You need beneficial trades for stars and you need steals in the draft.

    Stop oversimplifying and saying that trading for a star is pointless. It's been made clear that stars can be traded for too.
     

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