We still need guys who can actually do something with the ball, that's how youre going to bait the defense into reacting when you swing the ball. These guys aren't shooters and can't really drive and finish with a tough/strong shot. Our role players are just greyhounds. Some have potential, but it's too much youth and inexperience for a team trying to be a contender.
Shot chart differences between the quarters and subsequently by teams would also be interesting data to look at. We'd see our three point percentage drop and more midrange j's taken - against the playoff teams at least.
The problem isn't any player or players.... The problem is late in games, things become half-court oriented, and our half-court system doesn't work with the other team's defensive intensity turned up several notches.
4th quarter basketball is the closest thing to playoff basketball. We were not a good playoff team and didn't play good playoff basketball. Hopefully this will improve next year.
We don't have the killer mentality to fight off teams, and finish them off. Kinda like the Texans. A good way to fight off teams last ditch efforts is to have good defense. Which I hope we improve this offseason.
I think you have not been paying attention for very long. 4th quarter collapses are a hallmark of Houston teams since what, 1996 or so? Walking into 4th quarters with big leads only to blow them is a the norm for every team the last couple of decades (perhaps not a coincidence none of those teams have really gone anywhere?) 4th quarter collapses have been a fact of life for us for a long time. Find the answer to that and I think you will have a very, very happy fan base.
The first 4 minutes of 4th quarters were like watching a train wreck, Harden was the best 4th quarter player in the league and he had to bring us back so many times. Was there anyone here that didn't feel like a lead under 10 wouldn't get eaten alive in the first few minutes of the 4th?
Simple, it's Moreyball. When you rely on contested 3's instead of the best possible shot available, that's the best possible way to lose a 4th quarter lead. The best teams know how to have their best players in the right spots in the final moments. The Rockets just freelance and let the chips fall where they may
Do you realize that Harden was #1 in the NBA this season in clutch situations? Much better than Lebron or Durant. Kobe never had that great of stats in the clutch, he just took every single shot at the end of games and people remember the ones that went in.
As I said earlier, fourth quarter differential is a misleading stat. Here's a good article from 2006 that looks at the correlation between winning each quarter and winning the game. Correlations for winning % in a quarter to overall win rate? .86 - 1st Qtr .56 - 2nd Qtr .71 - 3rd Qtr .44 - 4th Qtr http://www.82games.com/random11.htm For that particular season, only 44% of the teams that won the 4th quarter ended up winning the game. Too many cases of teams closing the gap in garbage time but still losing the game.
