Players in their 3rd season Mid Range% Booker: 43% Fox: 37.3% Jaylen Brown: 38.6% Trae: 45.2% Morant: 26.7% Lillard: 39.3% Edwards: 36.8% Lavine: 40.6% Were all of these players' hard work and "hours" spent fruitless?
One last step for Jalen: for the love of god, simplify your 3pt shots. Simplify your form, don't stress so much about how high you jump and in general take easier 3's. If he had done that tonight he would have shot well from 3pt range and coupled with 7 assists wouldn't have been a bad game. The inside is not always going to be available, but you have to focus and hit simple 3's. It's stupid to take distant/stepback/sidestep/fading 3's when you're shooting like 30% there. Making those 3's will make the drive to the basket available again. He is not understanding how this ecosystem works. Let's go Jalen and Ime, it's time to cut this sh*t out. More simple 3's and way more corner 3's especially when FVV-Sengun are running the offense.
I will do you one better, stop shooting 3s and shoot more of that elbow and baseline middy that worked so well last 2 seasons. CP3 made a living shooting those and Green can too!
I'm not a big believer in his middy to be honest. Jalen has nothing else, so if he has a middy and nothing else we still don't have the basics of a scorer in place. We'd still need paint 2's and catch and shoot 3's from him. I'll make an exception for the FT line middy where he's actually above average efficiency at 49%. CP3 is one of the greatest of all time at that shot (and still just made 50%), it's going to take years for Jalen to approach an overall efficiency of 50% from mid range. We need something from him now and before the middy we need 3's and drives. Taking fewer and simpler 3's can get him to 36% shooting very soon imo. We can't have him stop shooting 3's but I think it's fair to get him to 3-5 attempts per game till it stabilizes. The huge majority of his shots should be transition and attacking the rim for 2 when the rim protector is out of position or asleep. For games like Minny where the paint is impossible because both teams pack it, I would stick to transition, FT line middy and wide open 3's along with higher volume of passing (drive and kick was available tonight). Defense obviously, but he was decent defensively against the Wolves.
It's about getting space and building rhythm. If he makes the middy a bigger part of the game, it will help setup the opportunity to blow past his opponents. When the middy helps him get into rhythm, he can then shoot some 3's. Now, when I say middy, I am not talking about long Tyreke Evans middys but the middy around the elbow area. Westbrook used to do this thing where he explodes down past the perimeter, stops on a dime at the mid middy, and then rises up to shoot. It was money when he did it.
I get what you're saying but to be honest I don't believe in the shot. I can see that it can result in some points and space, but to me it's still the worst shot a professional player is allowed to take. It's a bail out shot to me or something you add to an already extensive offensive repertoire in your later years. He's been working on his mid range for 3 summers and 2.5 seasons, he's 41% there. It's not working imo except in the FT circle. If there was any part of Jalen's game that was actually working well (driving or hitting 3's) then I would be all for it as a counter move. However, right now when you say make middy a bigger part of the game - what game? lol Middy is something you add to an existing offensive repertoire in my book. He's not elite at anything so that he can install a mediocre midrange jumper as a counter. The other thing is you could maybe get away with it if he's a great defender, but he's not so he'll be mediocre defense and a heavy diet of mid range - this is a perfect formula for a player who's numbers have no impact on wins whatsoever. We're in almost win-now mode, which means there are no shots to get into rhythm, every shot counts. I understand people who take mid range shots tend to say it gets them in rhythm but that's highly inconvenient for the team because in reality everyone can use a few rhythm shots but we don't have possessions to give away. We don't have court time for Jalen's development anymore. We need him to make the shots he can make efficiently right now. More importantly between now and summer 2025 we have to make a decision about Green. He's not going to go from a 40% mid range shooter to a 50% within 1.5 years, I will bet any amount of money on it. It would require all his development time and still fall short. If by next season Green's 3 or paint 2's are not much improved, even if he hits 50% of his midrange shots he will be replaced by Cam or someone else very very quickly.
I actually don’t think we are in win-now mode. I believe we now care about winning more than tanking but we are farther away from the playoffs than fans think. They might prove me wrong as we do have a lot of young talent, but we’ll see.
It's subjective I guess. I put it at 80% winning, 20% development since Udoka got here. Whatever the case, I'm 99% sure Jalen is out of time with management. We can't ask for more, they have been incredibly patient with him. It's time for him to deliver things that generate many new wins right now in the NBA. We don't need much from him. We need him to aggressively punish teams for leaving the paint open (get opponents in foul trouble), for leaving him open at the 3pt line and not getting back in transition. Can add the FT line jumper. If we trim his game down to just that, maybe he can actually average decent splits like 45/36/80 with high FTA. That still wouldn't be good enough, but at least he'd be a functional player.
With FVV out for possibly an extended period of time, this is gonna be Jalen's chance to show that he has improved as a distributor, decision-maker, and ultimately as a basketball player. I hope he can keep the turnovers down and keep scoring efficiently, because that is all we've ever asked of him.
There are times where JG needs to find his rhythm by knowing when to shoot and when to dribble. At times I think he dribbles a little too much which gets him off rhythm, he should just be quick with it and shoot. Whenever he is decisive he scores on a pull up. Whenever he does that lil dribbling too much like he did alot during Silas era he misses. Had a good game against Pacers but that Minny game shouldve been like this too. We move.
Dude it’s a process. I just showed you numbers from elite players in their 3rd year. Most of those guys have improved their mid range game. Process. Growth. If you demand results right away or have arbitrary numbers of where a player should be then that’s unrealistic and unfair to the player really. Players continue to grow and evolve. Btw Green shot 40% mid range last year and 38% rookie year. He is now just getting into his groove and compared to those elite players I just showed you he is right there
You're not addressing my point: it is the worst shot a professional player is allowed to take. All the other shots in an offensive system are better. If Jalen has an amazing mid range game and the rest of his game stays roughly the same, he will be a useless player. It's good to have it, but it's not a priority. He can't make 3's or finish at the rim well enough and you simply cannot make a career out of mediocre defense and above average mid range jumper being your best offensive weapon. I know you love the idea, but it's not good for Jalen's career. His career does not depend on whether he has a midrange shot, he's too far from being good at that to even matter. His career depends on whether he can get elite at finishing at the rim or making 3's. This is happening live right now, he's on the trading block at this young age because he doesn't do anything well on offense on average. There are shots he makes better than the mid range. He can pass off on those mid range shots and take fewer shots. We are struggling offensively, this is not the time to audition a shot that will take years to become effective. He will be gone before that shot develops. He has to take the shots he's good at making now. That's where we are in his career and in this team's development. He can hit 49% out of the FT circle. He's trash on all other mid range shots right now factually. It's REALLY not the time to be taking these shots. The team is signaling they are out of patience with him. It's time for him to raise his FG% dramatically and that's not going to happen by clinging onto his lowest % shot. Just in case it's not clear: if Jalen Green is going to be excellent at mid range jumpers, inconsistent with his 3's, mediocre finishing at the rim and below average defense then trade him now. Don't wait for it, we have better options on the team and his value will only decline as he gets older and isn't good at the two fundamental shots a SG should be able to make.
Jalen needs to use mid range shots to get himself going as a rhythm scorer. He needs to knock down a couple of easy jumpers and have a few drives to the basket before he starts launching 3's. He's not a pure shooter and if you allow him to become one dimensional it hurts the whole team.
I just hope that Jalen did enough recently to fool some GM into trading for him so the Rockets can get back to winning games.
There are three points we have to assess with this young man. 1. Does he have the Skill? 2. Does he have the Will? 3. Does he have the proper guidance and coaching? I think he has the Guidance and Coaching NOW! Jury still out on the rest Flashes is not enough Rocket River
10 game update (games 40-49, 4 Wins and 6 Losses)): 22.4 points on 18.1 shots (46.4% from the field, 28% from 3, 83% on 4.3 FTA) TS 56% vs season average 53.5% 5.1 rebounds 3.9 assists to 2 TO's +16 during that span He's not getting a ton of free throws nor making a ton of threes. He is making his shots in the paint which is what has changed. Had 2-3 bad games in this stretch. He has been much better in the last 5 games than the first 5 games, hopefully he's trending upward. I'd like to see him take fewer shots and improve his efficiency. The 3pt shot is wildly inconsistent month to month, he was better the previous 10 games. However there does seem to be a significant improvement in his FT% for a month now (roughly from 71% to 81%), so perhaps he is working on his shooting behind the scenes. That would be really good to stabilize his 3pt shot which - at his size/weight - is critical for his game. Let's hope Jalen narrowly escapes this deadline and stays consistent. I genuinely think Udoka can force the next step by just taking away 1 or 2 of Jalen's least efficient shot types. Perhaps Jalen can function as our deadline acquisition because he gave us very little to start the season and owes a lot.
The problem is structural - Sengun has to develop a legit outside shot because otherwise he will only be guarded from the mid range to the basket because that is his range and Sengun and Jalen will have a difficult time BOTH operating in the same space(mid range/at the basket) if they cant force defenses to guard both out to the 3pt line.
Not talking about Jalen specifically but this statement is a misconception taken from a poor understanding of the math of why certain shots are valuable. At the end of the day whether a shot is good or bad is very contextual to the player, how they shoot at very specific spots, and the moment. The general simplified guidance is a 33% 3pt shooter and a 50% 2pt shooter will score generally the same number of points on the same number of shots after 6 shots. Take a guy like DeRozan - much of his career his 3pt percentage has been low enough that the better shot for HIM to score the most amount of points for his team was to take a middy. If he took your guidance at face value, it would make him a less effective player. Where it starts to get more nuanced is what is the better shot for him in relation to specific areas of the court - his heat maps where he under/over performs according to his mean. Not a lot of pure perimeter players can hit over 50% on twos of ALL their shots but good ones do tend to have specific spots that allow them to shoot over 50% meaning if they can "get to their spots" they can hit above 50% and if they are good enough and disciplined enough at knowing when and where to shoot that, they can get their 2pt percentage high enough that their middys CAN be better shots than a mediocre 3pt shooter.... but let's not stop there because it starts to get even MORE nuanced when you discuss what is best for the TEAM because then we start talking about what happens after you take those shots - how often does the 3 draw a foul vs the 2pt shot, how often does your team pull an offensive rebound or how often do those rebounds turn into fast breaks for the other team. Then you have the context of "the moment" - in a tight game with less than 6 possessions left, is the 3pt shot really the most effective shot knowing you won't have enough possessions left to regress to the mean? ...not trying to be pedantic but unless you are willing to roll up your sleeves and do the math on Jalen's game, I don't think it's particularly fair to say those are bad Jalen shots because they defy 'general guidance of what a good/bad shot are'. That general guidance can be applied to what Jalen should focus on in the offseasons, but its just not useful to judge what maximizes his value with where he is at today with his game.
