Hopefully when the opponents get better, it will get easier. But that's the concept of high expectations. What do you think happens in the playoffs? You don't play crap teams with an easy schedule. It's a grueling grind. Plus, other teams have hard schedules. The Nuggets have played fewer home games than us. the Blazers only one more. I don't think any of this is suprising? You dont think Trae Young or Luka got the other teams best defenders and strategies to stop them? I'm setting a high high bar, i get it. I REFUSE to set the bar lower. No idea what this means lol. God, i hope so. But the point remains. The bar is and SHOULD be incredibly high. They want to start winning and make the playoffs next year. Absent lucking into an alltimer this draft, that means Jalen HAS to be that guy. We'll see.
Good points, but I would want to counter on a few key points: Green's efficiency is all over the place this season because he has incredible highs and terrible lows. After his game against OKC, which was only 5 games ago, his TS% was 56. He can go 5-7 from 3 next game and end the game on 15 points and his TS% would bounce back up to well over TS 54%. His efficiency right now is actually similar to his efficiency after his first 24 games last season, with the difference being Green shooting worse from 3 same time last year, but he is also scoring 6 more points. I do not believe Green can sustain this level of poor shooting, so a bounce back is very likely going to happen. I would disagree that his defense is worse this season. He still gets lost on defense, but his man to man defense in general is respectable. We can compare their defensive dashboard, whilst this is by no means a perfect stat, it does show that among all players that have played quality minutes, Green's defense has had the biggest jump (the first table is this season, the 2nd is last season). Other players have more or less remained the same, although guys like Matthews or Fernando do not have a large enough sample size to work with. Lastly, the one key thing is Green is currently the defensive focus of opposing teams. Teams currently send their best perimeter defenders at Green, unlike last season, The question is whether Green can adjust and improve from here on out.
I think you're being overtly hard on the kid. These are just growing pains from a 2nd year player taking a monumental leap from "microwave scorer" to "integral budding star". He's learning how to run the offense and he's the best passer on the team at the moment. He's averaged the most assists anyway. Most of his TOs are coming from his handle which he's learning to tighten. This again, is a result of an increase in possessions. He's not used to it but it'll come around. You pointed out how he's .5% lower at the rim this year. 68% to 67.5%. That isn't objective criticism. It's basically identical and the degree of difficulty on the shots af the rim this year vs last aren't comparable. Some of the kisses off the glass he can do now are straight up jaw dropping. He's a second year player. Just like Jabari, I'm cool with him turning it over right now. He has to learn. Theyre learning to win. Something they didn't do last year. JG, Jabari and Al-P will all benefit from a real and natural point guard. Or at least a natural facilitator since some here are hell bent on saying that there are no more natural PGs. Jalen and Jabari are the real deal. I can say that those two probably have a higher ceiling than Tatum/Brown who currently run the best team in the league. Will they get there? Who knows but Jalen is much further along in his development than I thought he'd be right now. The question now is if we continue to keep trying to win. Because adding Scoot, Amen or Wemby to this core would be....amazing.
I think Green has been better across the board. Just my eyeballs though. 1-2 more seasons and summer will do a lot!
No the bar should not be incredibly that high unless you're strategizing to disappoint yourself. Every season/phase has its bar, the bar you're talking about is simply later. Kobe didn't clear that bar at this age. Wade didn't clear that bar. Steph Curry didn't clear that bar. They did not fail by not clearing that bar. They're all champions and all-timers. You're setting an arbitrary bar. You're just going about this with the mindset of "what happened last game that he can work on?" instead of looking at the big picture and understanding IT'S AMAZING that THAT'S what Jalen Green at 20 years old needs to work on. You're arbitrarily projecting it as concern. Another perspective is: wow, I can't believe at 20 years old we're talking about how close Jalen could potentially be to decimating playoff-calibre defenses. That's a major win, no discussion required. Only a pessimist would see that as a problem rather than being ahead of schedule. There's absolutely no logic that our ability to acquire other players changes what Jalen should be. Jalen is going to develop at his pace regardless, and the pace has been astounding. Half the game is defense and Luka and Trae in their 5th season have never had a defensive season as "good" as Jalen's first season which was a bad defensive season. They have never been in the position that they're pretty good on ball defenders and escalating off ball defenders to the degree there's hope they could end up good defenders. Both those players have been totally written off as horrible defenders and that's half of the game of basketball. What do I think happens in the playoffs? I think 20 year olds suck at the playoffs, that's what I think happens even if it's Michael Jordan. What do YOU think happens at 20 years old???? You're setting the bar for Green higher than Michael Jordan and expressing concern. Do you know it's possible to imagine problems out of thin air? You really don't need to worry yourself. The thing you're hoping happens this season will absolutely not happen. You can lay your mind to rest. Simultaneously, Jalen will absolutely be ready for the playoffs in his second go at the playoffs. He will average way better numbers the rest of this season as he did the first quarter of this season. It's not the time to think about why Jalen Green can't will a team to winning a playoff series right now. All that has happened is the schedule was particularly difficult to start the season and you concocted all this narrative about what he should have been able to do when there's no indication he should have been able to do that. It's illusory, it's not a real problem except for the fact that you're saying it to yourself.
Yeah, I was with you Jay, as you made some good points backed up with some data, until you referenced your bar. Your bar is unrealistic in that you expect 20 yr old sophomore Jalen to be Trae or Luka. Don't get me wrong, I believe he has the potential to be as good as both, but play type, player type, and circumstances matter. Luka came into the league with size as an advantage, Trae came into the league with range outside the gym, and both came into the league with an offensive system that was built to their strengths. By your own admission our system (whatever the hell it is) is not the most efficient use of Jalen's strengths. You can of course set the bar where ever you like, but agree with @Mathloom that unrealistic expectations will only lead you to disappointment when it comes to player evaluation.
He is already a star-let in my books, not quite established for sure and as you said growing pains. The gripe is there are too many of those young stars in the league, the overall crop is getting better.
once he (or the team) figure out how to get him shots in the 4th quarter, he is going to average 25ppg easy.
Streaky shooting is something I'm not going to worry about as a young player. Keep in mind Green is the only player on this roster who has started every game and averages the most minutes on the team. He's 20 and before the NBA has like 17 games of g league experience. He just doesn't have the conditioning memory of this many professional level games and minutes. So is it a coincidence that he started a shooting slump in the midst of a long west coast road trip where there were back to back games in mile high Denver? The fact that he can still will teams to wins during shooting slumps is a major step in his evolution. His finishing and ftr are both improving also.
Again, his trajectory is Devin Booker right now. Yes, Devin Booker is REALLY REALLY good. He MAYBE gets a first place vote or two for MVP this year. Maybe. That's GREAT. But there are level of superstars. And there are definitely guys on here, out there that view JG as the future "HIM" lol. My point is, at the moment, he is not becoming that. It can ABSOLUTELY change. And he can ABSOLUTELY continue on the Booker path which is solid. Also, the Tatum/Brown comparison is a bit off base. Take analytics for what they're worth, but Tatum was an advanced analytics darling from day one almost. Example he had a 111 ORtg his rookie year and 103 DRtg (bball reference). JG is at 106, 120 this year. Tatum had a 60% ts% his rookie year. JG has been 55% and 53% this year. He had a 10.7% turnover % which hasn't gone above 11% yet. JG is at 14% this year. He had a 15 PER his rookie year. JG is at 14 this year, up from 12.5 his rookie year. JG has outperformed early Jaylen Brown though. Again, there are players who "take a longer path" - Jaylen Brown, heck Giannis or Jokic. Its possible and i still think probable. I'm just pointing out the reality of TODAY. JG is viewed by our fanbase more like Luka/Trae yr 2 or KD yr 2 (25ppg, 58% ts%, 20 PER)... or Tatum path... but he's just NOT THERE.
DWade put up 24, 7 and 5 his sophomore year on solid efficiency... but he was 23. Steph put up 19 and 6 his sophomore year with great efficiency and fewer turnovers... but he was 22. Age comparisons are hard cause there's obviously a learning curve but also indeed its not fair to JG to compare him at 20/21 to older players. Kobe is the best JG comp to me, not just because of similar age but because of body type and playstyle. Personally, i always found Kobe somewhat overrated because of the lack of efficiency. SOMEWHAT mind you - there are guys that think hes a CLEAR top 5 or top 10 guy and i'm not there. Also efficiency wasn't quite as important in his early nba than it is today. the league overall wasn't as efficient. That said, even he was consistently more efficient his early years, turned the ball over less and the advanced stats were more favorable to him. This is the crux of my point - WINNING HABITS, explosive growth, or both are needed. Ive never been a huge advanced anlytics defensive stats guy but they're all we have. I use bball reference. Luka had a 109 DRrtg his rookie year and has never had a negative DBPM. JG is 120 and has been -2.5/-2.6 on DBPM both years. JGs #s are more in line with Trae's (though Trae still had a better DRtg) - and that's NOT GOOD. I mean MJ put up 30, 8.5 and 6 his first time in the playoffs as a 21 yo. He put up 44, 6 and 6 his second year at 22. Luka put up an efficient 31, 10 and 9 as a sophomore in the playoffs. It took Trae to his 3rd year but he was incredible in his first playoffs making an ECF push. I think you're underestimating how many absolute stud young NBA players there are. Nothing I wrote had anything to do with the Rockets record. I could give a ****. Im happier if they lose - more likely to fire Silas and better draft pick. I did note the schedule. We will see how it plays out. I expect him to get better but we shall see.
I mean, you're kind of saying those guys are just better lol... which is my point. And I would clarify, my expectations aren't really anything. I don't expect JG to be Luka or to be Corey Brewer. I am just watching and analyzing what is being put out there, and then comparing it RELATIVE to other players and... ... MOST IMPORTANTLY ... Relative to the plan. What does that mean? We ALL know the plan is to be good starting next year. Great, I want to be good, too. But most specifically, I want ring(s). With very few exceptions teams that have ring(s) have a home grown superstar on their roster. That's why I'm being overly critical. And its just an analysis of what's been shown so far. If he averages 30 on efficiency with fewer turnover the last 2 months of the season.... AMAZING! I'm not putting it past him AT ALL. ANd it won't make me wrong or a worry-wort if so. I'm just point out what's been happening so far. And so far, cautiously optimistic that he is "HIM" is the right approach.
I would be thrilled if he turned into Booker - but I don‘t see the comparison. Green is special because of his quickness and athleticism. Booker is special because of his shooting. The big difference: Booker thrives with a PG like CP3 - Green can get by any defender on his own and get to the basket or pull up from midrange. That‘s why there is a way bigger boom or bust potential for him. Being able to create his own shot against anybody is maybe the most important and hard to find skill in the NBA. On the other hand, athleticim and speed can vanish really fast, especially after an injury. And Green still needs to learn how to finish close to the basket.
Green can always get better at finishing but the dude is one of the better finishers at the rim at his height even compared to vet guards with 70% fg% 0-3ft from the rim. For comparison Booker at 20 was converting 57% of his attempts at the rim.
I don't know what to tell you dude. The answers are in your own post, but you will jump to the side that's negative. Wade was older, so let's disregard it. DBPM is not accurate but let's use it. Jalen being compared to Kobe, MJ, Luka. You are finding a narrative on the pessimistic side of everything, so you won't see it while it's happening. For your mindset, the great thing has to be in the past because for the future you can always ask "but what is it doesn't happen". Always. You can "shall see" the future if you like. I'm watching it happen live.
I don't really know why it matters whether JG is treated like "HIM" or not. The Bookers, Beals and Lavines don't grow on trees and all can be integral part of a championship team, and by the way Green is developing he could optimistically be a second option on a contending team in the future following the path of Booker. For every Curry, there's a Klay, or else you just end up like Mavs who is on a mediocre treadmill with their "HIM". I personally never saw Green on the same tier as the Hardens, Currys, Lukas of the world, because I don't think he will ever develop the same basketball sense as the Greats, those things are innate imo. But I don't see how you can be disappointed at his development. I think he is developing way faster than I ever imagined with his passing and offensive arsenal. I just don't know it's fair to be stuck monitoring his TS% after every game, it really doesn't mean that much especially considering strength of schedule and the constant development of his role and the team around him. Whenever I watch him, I still see a kid figuring out ways to play basketball properly. I feel like there's too much focus on trying to brand franchise players right out of the gate. There's too much expectations on every top 5 pick to be a Giannis or Luka, when in reality you probably only have 5 of these true franchise players every decade.
