Easy, If this team wins 45-47 games and does not make the playoffs, then I would not view this season as a failure. However, going 41-41 is not much progress based on the reasons I stated in my previous post. I feel strongly that even if this team is able to win the remaining games in this homestand, 45-47 wins is still out of reach. 11 of the final 17 games are on the road with the road game at Denver being the only potential "gimmie". The home games in that stretch include games against Lakers and Blazers. In the final 17 games, there are only about 3 you could call "gimmies". I see 41-41 as about the most this team will win this season and that will not be enough to make the playoffs. As far as Yao making the guards games worse. That basically proves the point that the guard trio is not a good mix for this team. Ive been saying this for the last 40-45 games. Steve Francis's stats have been in line with what he has produced the last few seasons, but Mobley's have dropped off some esp in terms of 3 pt pct. Mobley doesnt fit this attack, is that a novel concept? My take on this issue is that whether Rudy is here or some other coach, this current core of players is simply not going to work; the talents just are not complementary. Like I was saying in another thread, I really dont care whether Rudy is back or not next season, the big issue for me is addressing the backcourt.
MManal, I kinda agree with you about the guards situation but not as pessimistic as you. I think Mobley still can adjust his game to fit in. And I still think 45 wins is reachable. Maybe because I'm an optimist.
Matt's just probably been reading about this on Clutch... No one can question Rudy's BB knowledge, but it's about discipline and execution, which the Rox haven't had all year... It's more that just knowledge, but I think Rudy will be here another year or two...
mos-def, awesome post. It's EASY to go from being a bad to an average team, or an average to a good team. That's easy. It's a totally different thing to go from a good team to a great team. It seldom happens that teams steadily improve 5-10 wins a year, until they're contending. That just doesn't happen. If it did, the teams that were contenders would either increase every year or totally change. That doesn't happen. What does happen is the teams that are in the lottery, or are just average, pretty much stays the same every year. So if you're looking at the Rockets record from two years ago, and assuming that they should just tack on 5 more wins on that, just because they're older, you're ignoring the way things work in the NBA. You're also ignoring the fact that zones are allowed now, and that teams overlooked the Rockets then and get up to play them now unlike any other team in the NBA, AND that they're trying to make the transition from a guard-dominated team to an offense run through the post, AND that they're the 2nd-youngest team in the league, but we'll save those realities for other threads for now I guess. Anyone using the qualifier of making the playoffs as some measure of success or failure also needs to check history. In '97, when the T-Wolves had a young Garnett, plus Marbury and Gugliotta, they made the playoffs. Well their season was a success, I guess, right? -- BUT WAIT. They only won 40 GAMES. That was good enough to get the 8th seed in the West at that time. Today, ALL of the good teams are in the West. When Akeem was a rookie (like Yao now), the 8th seed won 36 GAMES! Just saying 'you have to make the playoffs' is a shortcut to thinking.
Freak, Your logic about it being ok to sit in the lottery for multiple yrs is a losers mentality which I refuse to prescribe to. The crappy franchises have sustained stays in the lottery ie. Clippers, Cavs, pre-Cuban Mavs, Denver, GSW, Grizzlies, etc. When was the last time the Lakers, Jazz or Blazers were in the lottery? The Lakers were in the lottery only one yr iirc after the Magic Johnson era and did get back in even before they signed Shaq or drafted Kobe. I dont think it was at all unrealistic to expect this team to win 45-47 games this yr which should be enough to make the postseason. The Rockets were close to .500 in the games Francis was healthy last season and landed a center who is putting up numbers beyond what many imagined. Plus, the team has an Eddie Griffin with a summer of work and Mo Taylor who was out all of last season. Winning 41 games is underachieving for this team. The thing that really aggravates me is that the talent on this team is so obvious. I guarantee you that if this team had a true distributor running the show, we would not be in the predicament we currently are in. If you replaced Mobley with any of the PGs that have been mentioned (Parker, Snow, Tinsley, Miller, etc) this team would be on a 50 win pace this season. The good news is that according to the word on this board, the Rockets were looking to make a move before the deadline but just could not get the financials together. Im hoping a move gets made to add one of these distributors this summer b/c then the true potential of this team will be unlocked. At that stage, we wont need these lame excuses that you have become a pro at making.
