I have to say I agree with you, especially on #2 and #4. To me Rudy and EG have the same problem: they are not smart. A change to a better coach means keeping Yao and winning more championships. To me all the problems this Rox team has is related to Rudy and he has no ability to solve those problems. If Rox is not a contender in 3 years Yao is very likely to join the Lakers to substitute then retired Shaq. In LA with Kobe, Phil Jackson and the best Asian community, Yao probably will have the best years of his life because of the championships and fun. Remember if no Phil Jackson Lakers should have lost to the Blazers (00) and the Kings (02) and can only win one championship the most (01). The biggest pressure for a coach change will be from Team Yao, the people who handle Yao¡¯s business. Let¡¯s see what Les will do in this summer. After the second game against Phoenix, Yao told his reporter friend in a private telephone conversation (I can find the original article if someone interested) that Stoudemire should not be allowed to score 24 points because he found Stoudemire can only go right to the hoop. He told EG 3 times but EG just cannot get it.
How about someone on the Rockets becoming a leader on the court? After watching the last two Spurs games the thing I was most impressed about was how Tim Duncan was always talking to his teamates after they made a mistake. Ex: During the Sacramento game, even when the Spurs basically had the game in hand, Bibby had an open three to tie the game in the final moments. Even though it was 3 feet behind the 3-point line, it was still a clear shot (e.g. Utah vs. Houston/ Harpring). After that play Duncan had a conversation with Parker (Bibby's defender). Now I don't know what Duncan said to Parker, but Duncan didn't look too happy. There were several other examples of this during the two games I watched. I don't really see anyone for the Rockets with this leadership quality. Who on the Rockets can fill this role? It doesn't need to be someone who is outspoken, just someone with a good basketball IQ. SF looks like he could be a good leader on the court, and maybe Yao will be in the next couple of years. Rudy T can draw the X's and O's, but somebody on the court needs to make sure the game plan is done right.
I, and many others, believe that there are certain type of players that are critical in putting together a Finals bound team. First of all you need 2 star players. Both these players should excel in 2 of the following 3 catagories: Points, Rebounds, Assists. A third player, aka X-factor, is needed to bring an extra quality to the table. An X-factor can range from a offensive juggernaut to an intense defensive player or a team leader. A player who can bring results when the stars can not. Examples (no particular order): 1) Sacramento: Stars - Bibby & Webber X-factor - Peja 2) Lakers: Stars - Kobe & Shaq X-factor - Phil Jackson (don't say Horry) 3) Pacers: Stars - Miller & O'neal X-factor - Artest 4) Dallas....etc Rockets have Yao and Francis to fill in the "star" roles. Each of them is needed to perform well in Points & Rebounds, and Points & assists respectively. Rockets do not have an X-factor on the other hand. James Posey is the closest we come to it....close but no cigar. Rockets stars can be labeled as a slasher/distributor and a post player respectively. So naturally our X-man should be a pure shooter. Houston doesn't have a shooter. Boki is the closest we come to it....again close but no cigar. Examples (other notable teams missing chromosomes) 1) Spurs 2) T-Wolves 3) Celtics A trade must occur in order for this age-old formula to work. I'm not going to say any names but Francis and Yao are out of the question. Of course I could be wrong and maybe patience is the key. Let me know what yall think.
Qazi, I think there are some holes in your theory. I think you can do it with 1 star and the right set of role players. I think Francis has better players around him than TD or KG. Quite simply Duncan and KG are consistantly doing much more as individual players as far as getting their team to win. SA has the 2nd best record in the league with really only two things going for them--the most consistent defense in the league and Tim Duncan in the low post on offense. Yet this is a combination that you have to say has a chance to win it all. Two teams in the last year 10 years have won with a similar formula --1 super, supertstar, and the rest role players, Hou in 94 & SA in 99. On the other hand Sac last year and Portland about 3 years ago were on the cusp of winning titles without a single dominant player in the playoffs (and no 1st team all-NBA players) but with a well rounded, deep, team at every position. That formula can work too. In sum there is no magic formula. With Francis, Yao and some role players there is no reason that team couldn't compete at the highest level--but Francis has to play a little bit more like Jordan (or at least Isiah) or Yao is going to have to play like Hakeem, Shaq or Duncan. If neither of these guys can raise their game to that level than maybe you go with the Sac, Dallas, Portland (of a few years back) strategy of beat them with overall talent.
