What would make it shrewd if all the players at no. 3 are worse than the young players you already have? Moving out of this draft to get a serviceable player, another lower pick in this draft and another tradeable pick in the 25 draft (purportedly one of the best in years) seems pretty shrewd to me. There is no magic to picking no. 3 in a draft that is a big maybe that even one star is found. Thank God, GSW held on to their no. 1 pick in a crappy draft and picked Wiseman.
Are you familiar with the Rockets seasons since Tilman Fertitta purchased the team in 2019? Note the franchise trajectory before and after that point in time.
Great post. The other key point (I’ve mentioned elsewhere) is that the only time trade downs happen in the top 5 in the last 15 years, it’s trading down 1-2 spots where the team knows with certainty they are getting their guy at the later pick, just picking up an extra asset. That’s something I’d be happy with HOU doing. But trading down 4-8 spots into a lower draft tier where you have no idea who’ll be available and you haven’t worked out or met with the guys? Would be hard to believe, Stone usually avoids obvious GM traps like that. Also - one more historical trade down data point: 2005 Portland traded down from #3 (Deron Williams) for #6 (Martell Webster), #27 (Linas Kleiza), and a future lottery protected first (Joel Freeland) Yikes
Yeah, not a big fan of trading down. We were gifted the #3. I would rather keep it unless it's for an established star.
Blazers traded UP from 4 (Tyrus Thomas) to 2 to get LaMarcus. The best example of a great trade down I can think of is the Mavs trading down from 6 (Robert “Tractor” Traylor) to 9 (Dirk Nowitzki) and another first round pick. The Nuggets also made a great trade down from 11 (Doug McDermott) to 16 (Jusuf Nurkic) and 19 (Gary Harris).
the Nets made a great trade down when they traded with the Rockets in 2001, they ended up getting Richard Jefferson if I remember correctly. Griffin was a talent for sure, but had serious issues and probably wasn’t worth giving up 3 first rounders for.
It was the Nets. Traded 7 (Eddie Griffin) for 13 (Richard Jefferson), 18 (Jason Collins) and 23 (Brandon Armstrong).
There is one thing that is odd....if the Rockets really were planning on trading down, how come they haven't gotten workouts from ANY of the guys in trade down range? They've basically only worked out Clingan, Sheppard, and potential 2nd round guys.
I disagree, Tatum trade is a meaningless wash. Romeo Langford, who the Cs got for moving down is a below replacement level player. They could have just taken Tatum at #1 and nothing would have changed at all…
History shows that top 4 picks have much higher probably of having successful, even star level, careers than lower lottery picks. Unless you get back some surefire good player, you don't gamble with dropping 5 or 6 spots from #3. This looks to be true even when the draft is deemed "weak."
You might take and probably should take the gamble if you could get a sure fire lottery pick in a loaded draft like 25 or 26, but I doubt that happens. Moving down to say 7 in this draft and picking up a useful vet or a future FRP is a pretty low risk gamble in my opinion.
It depends on how sure you are with the future picks. If you trade with a team that is very likely to be a bottom 3 team in the next two seasons, well yeah. But is the pick protected? You only gamble with a top 3 pick for a VERY LIKELY future top 3 or 4 pick or a VERY GOOD vet player. Unless there are at least 4 or 5 can't miss prospects in a single draft, it doesn't really matter. A draft is strong or weak depends on how many sure fire prospects at the top. The middle lotto tiers are pretty much the same in any draft.
Yep.I think we could safely trade with Portland, Washington, San Antonio, Charlotte, Detroit and have a sure fire lottery pick. Couple that with the 25 Nets pick we most certainly will have 2 lottery picks in next years draft. Maybe, I’m a dummy, but if Washington offered their 25 FRP unprotected straight up for #3 this year I’d jump all over it. Doubt Washington would do it though. They might be tempted to have the 2nd and 3rd pick in this draft and it would be pretty exciting to their fans. Maybe we’d have to throw in a future Rockets pick that won’t be worth very much. Having two shots at Cooper Flagg and one at Boozer in 26, c’mon man!
Tough decision. It's like getting an extra $5k out of nowhere but you have no absolutely need for it right now. You can either use it just to use it or put it in the bank for later, while cashing in on the interest now.
Beware of thinking we have too many prospects to develop, so we have to trade this pick. Last time a team did that, it was the Charlotte Hornets trading out of pick #13 under MJ and Mitch Kupchak in 2022. Their GM, Kupchak said: “We didn’t feel using [the pick] was prudent,” he said. He explained after taking three rookies last year, bringing in two more and having five players under the age of 21 would hamper the team’s goal of taking a step forward. “We don’t want to go backward developing players … I think we’re at the stage where we want to make a jump.” https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/charlotte-hornets/article262841018.html So CHA traded #13 (Jalen Duren) for a lottery protected DEN FRP the next year. The DEN pick ended up 27th (Nick Smith Jr). It was one of the worst draft trades ever, in pick value terms. Dumped a lottery pick for #27. Then look at Sam Presti, he keeps taking swings. Did OKC dump their lottery pick last year because they had a young core already? Nope. They picked Cason Wallace and crushed it. A good rule of thumb: Don't run your team like MJ, run it like Presti!
