Michigan State added a win over the #4 team in the country. OU did nothing. Why couldn't MSU jump OU? They arguably have a better loss and they have a set of quality wins (Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon) that matches or is better than OU (Tennessee, Baylor, TCU, Okie State).
Except better losses and quality wins factors into SoS which OU has the jump on them. Looking at the 4 factors the committee decides on, don't see how they jump OU. Championships Won: Draw Strength of Schedule: OU Head to Head: None Comparative Outcomes of Common Opponents: None
There are more metrics than those that the committee uses, but for me, SOS only matters at the bottom and the top. If you're a playing a bunch of FCS scrubs out-of-conference, then that's a penalty (North Carolina, Baylor). In the middle, I don't find any value difference in a win against Texas Tech (7-5) and Indiana (6-6). But SOS will favor the Tech win becsuse it is against the "better" team. So for me, as long as you're not scheduling scrubs, and you take care of business in conference, then it's all about the top of your schedule. OU and Michigan State both had 1 conference mess up against mediocre teams, but their top wins just favored Mich St. It's really splitting hairs because both teams are great imo. But the 4 best wins are subjectively significantly better for St. I don't think much of TCU (due to injuries) and Okie St (due to being completely fraudulent). Baylor was a great win even though it was against QB2. But yes, the committee is ultimately subjective and I'm sure some members believed OU should be 3, which is completely defensible.
Good post. But they should have jumped Bama as well then. 3 of their 4 best wins turned out to be against bigger frauds them any of OUs or Mich St, you could even argue all 4 really (LSU, Georgia, A&M, and UF). But yes there is some subjectivity behind the rankings and think this was the deciding factor in the jump than anything else.
I always find it odd that if say Houston beats a crappy SEC team it is somehow a huge coup, when in reality that win was against a crappy team.
When it comes to body-of-work, I absolutely agree that Michigan St has a better resume than Bama. I've just come to accept that so many members of the committee, A) love Bama and B) love the Big 10. While the BCS had some subjectivity with the polls and ranking biases, it really was an algorithm that tried to take human opinion out of it. With the committee, it's like going the opposite direction, lol. Look, I think Bama is a great team, but yeah, the SEC is just another conference this year, like it was last year. Before that, it was fair to say that SEC had dominance considering the major Bowl victories over a 7 year period. But all the SEC has been since late last year is just average at best.
I'm glad MSU jumped OU. This sets up for the best matchup in the championship game which I think is Alabama vs. OU. They are the two best teams in the country right now with all due respect to the perfect Clemson team.
Mich St is not as explosive as OSU last year offensively. But MSU has the toughness to match up with Bama to certain extant.
Great post and good points. In my ideal world, you're dealing with undefeated teams, and that does not seem to be the norm these days. I still prefer the system I put forth, but I don't necessarily feel like other opinions are wrong. It's just based on how a fan values certain things. To eliminate judgment, I actually have an even less popular preference. Why not go back to the computer rankings, but this time do it right? Before, I don't know how they settled on the computer rankings. I used to look at them, and they were seriously screwed up. You have to make the algorithms transparent and have them agreed upon by the right people, but it would enforce common sense when humans can ignore it. Not going to happen though! Already screwed the pooch on it once!!!!
11.1.2016 25. Washington State 24. Boise State 23. Western Michigan 22. Florida State 21. North Carolina 20. West Virginia 19. Virginia Tech 18. Oklahoma State 17. Baylor 16. Utah 15. Colorado 14. Oklahoma 13. LSU 12. Penn State 11. Florida 10. Nebraska 9. Auburn 8. Wisconsin 7. Louisville 6. Ohio State 5. Washington 4. Texas A&M 3. Michigan 2. Clemson 1. Alabama
I didn't think the committee would take strength of schedule this seriously, but I'm glad they are. Gig 'Em!
