Tmac wasn't traded away because of his health, he was traded away because he and the gm got all pissy with each other. Even if you think that the health was a legitimate beef at the time, he obviously still didn't make the best trade if the net result after a couple of years is just cap space. Orlando is in bad shape, but at least they do have options to right the ship with cap space, draft picks, and a franchise big man. Other than that, the cupboard is pretty bare.
Orlando is in great shape with Howard, Nelson, Darko. They need to play better defense and will be a playoff team soon.
All ORL is known for is making other teams better. How many teams have lost that much star power and have nothing to show for it? Their managements bottom line was not winning. Weisbrod was brought in to get rid of tracy and nothing more. Dwight was a no brainer.
Cap space, draft picks, and a franchise 20 year old big man, other than that the future is bleek. most teams would love to be in that position right now.
With all the scintillating threads around here the last couple of weeks, we have one about our future GM and we start discussing... Orlando? Good times.
Sorry, just so many guys start referencing weisbrod as the bad gm, let's just stick to Isiah as the bad gm reference. almost everyone else is debatable.
Just a couple of quick reactions... Don't forget that CD worked with Hakeem on his game and helped him fulfill his potential. And he was being considered for coach ahead of Rudy except for ill-health. Don't know what the turnover rate is like in NBA jobs but no doubt CD had built up quite a network throughout the league over his many years. That can't be replaced even in one year. Don't underestimate the role this can play in getting deals done. Bottom line: CD might have been out of "position" as a GM but he has contributed so much to the organization and definitely was an integral part of the Rockets championships. One year on the job WITH CD will also allow for either or both parties to find out if it looks like it will work... ... maybe Morey will do a workup on his own self and project how he'll work out.
Good points, barryxzz. Given that we have two stars, maybe a stats approach is alright for the Rox. I'm still not comfortable with using a stats analysis to identify stars, though, and I think most ppl agree that you need stars to win in the NBA. Well that is good to know. Perhaps this is b/c rebounding is a better test of athleticism/desire than scoring, and the jump that separates NBA and college has a lot to do with these factors. Ok, I'm starting to come around on this. My first instinct was, the Celts are crappy, and we don't want to end up like them. But the more I think about it, the more I think the Celtics role players really aren't too bad. Delonte West, Al Jefferson, Orien Greene -- all pretty respectable. Imagine if we had those guys instead of Rybo, Wesley, and Bogans?
Great post GMNOT, I will be sending a card or (something) to CD for his part in the most thrilling moments in my museum of basketball recollection. I was just kidding. Re: Weibrod we might want to see T-Mac healthy before again piling on the pile-on.
Man, I liked CD. At least he's not leaving until end of NEXT season. I'm worried about Morey's NBA managing skills myself, doesn't seem like the right guy.
HA! I can't believe I actually read through the entire thread to catch this stuck in the middle of this thing! Daryl Morey sounds like a really interesting addition. I'm all for it. Stats analysis in basketball is a trend that will continue. Glad to see the Rockets really getting serious about it. Looks like he really has the background to do some serious analysis. Don't let the stats stuff scare you. You can't replace human decision making. But you can help a human make better decisions by providing information you may not have considered or seeing correlations that you didn't know were there. This is what all the analytical basketball stuff is about. Morey coming onboard is about improving our odds in making good personnel decisions vs. bad ones. Thinking through this a little, I think this is signalling a change in responsibilities and capabilities in the Rockets front-office. I don't see this as a 1 for 1 replacement, CD for Daryl Morey from a responsibilities stand point. That might be the case over time but I bet this is more of a - we're bringing in a quant guy since we have the league relationships through Lindsey & JVG move. Over time Morey will build up his network and influence.
I am just amaized at all of this because I would have thought that 'Stats Analysis' would have been a basic of Basketball and not be a trend in 2006. How on earth could a team make rational decisions without stats analysis, coupled with the scout's eye and video experience, plus the input of the Head Coach and the heart and experience skills of the General Manger?
To be honest I am too. I think the level of rigor as well as usefulness has really expanded. The sophistication of the analysis is not something that a lot of bball orgs have adopted beyond the pretty basic / traditional stuff. We are talking about a leap in sophistication here and this becoming more understood and accepted in the last 5 years or so.
Part of the reason basketball people are weary of stats is because basketball isn't a game that can be easily quantified, as opposed to, say, baseball. There aren't as many factors to consider if you want to know who the best offensive baseball player is. And pretty much everything relevant in baseball is recorded somehow on a stat sheet. How good a player plays with a particular team is also heavily dependent on "chemistry" or "teamwork", which are difficult to record statistically. I also think conventional "per game" stats are so misleading, that basketball people intuitively (and correctly) view them with skepticism. But there are other more useful statistical methods to evaluate players which are becoming prevalent (like the stuff shown at 82games). Most teams use them to some extent, but they aren't "official" stats that are referred to by the general media. For example, there are straightforward methods for estimating a team's offensive and defensive ability (points per possession), but most TV analysts still rely on flawed or limited measurements like PPG or FG%.
Hey Tango, I thought you might be interested in this. The formulas were kind of over my head, but I think maybe you could make better sense of them. http://www.82games.com/comm30.htm As opposed to using a linear rating system which combines various boxscore stats (like Hollinger's PER), he determines the value of a player to his team based on +/-, adjusted for the teammates he plays with and the opponents he faces. I believe he recently took a job with the Wizards, so his latest research isn't being published publically as much. Here's his NBA blog. Interesting stuff. http://danrosenbaum.blogspot.com/
orlando won this years trade season....they are gonna have tons of money to get a superstar to go with howard
Thanks for the links durvasa. I've looked at some of Rosenbaum's stuff in the past. Looks like some form of linear regression or multi-linear regression he's doing - in the forecasting sciences realm of things. I'll have to ask my demand / sales forecasting buddies if they can explain the concepts to me. Those quant guys are way over my head! Speaking in the forecasting world is like a different language altogether! I like some of what Dan Oliver has done as well. He has some older stuff on the web that's pretty fascinating to look at as well. I'm a lurker on the abprmetrics forum as well. Seriously, I'm no expert in this area and just have found it a fun diversion for my bball interests! Neat stuff but alas it's hard to dive into all this when I have to expend my braincells on other stuff that actually puts food on the table!
