It's not that cut and dry. Les wont just say, "Here guys. You take care of it, I'm going to Tahiti..." And he's not going to say, "I'm in charge and that is that!!!!," either. He's going to have CD gather all the possible candidates and narrow them down to the best possible fit for the Rockets. Then, Les is going to take is own views of certain coaches and give suggestions and ask questions. But all the while letting CD and staff handing the "technical/personnel fit" of the coach for the team. In the end, Les might say, "Yes, but I was hoping for a coach with more fan-fair, like Brown." And CD would have to give his opinion on why they chose DL or VG. I mean, Les could over rule them. But, in the end it was a staff effort, NOT Les just coming in a saying, "We're going with so-and-so, and that's that!" Les respects CD's opinion. And so do I.
I see it this way. Les will have CD do research on the basketball end. Les will do the thinking on the business end. They will combine their thoughts and come up with the best basketball/business decision.
NIKE - It appears that we are on opposite ends of the issue of whether or not the Rockets should have bid more for Larry Brown. Give me the following assumptions and follow me on the logic: 1) Larry Brown would have coached at Houston for the right price. 2) The Rockets recoiled at bidding for their top candidate because they are still paying Rudy Tomjanovich $6m/year for 2 more years. IOW, if the Rockets did not have to pay for RT, they would have made a stronger run at Brown. So a team valued at between $250m-$300m with a projected payroll of around $52m refused to make a counter offer because they were $6m short? $6m is scantily more than the MLE. Wouldn't Brown impact the Rox much more substantially than any realistic 2003-04 FA signing? Brown has incentives at Detroit. Do I recall correctly that in another thread you estimated that to be around $2.0m for a Finals appearance? I have to believe that a playoff appearance in the WC is equivalent to an EC Finals appearance. A $2m bonus for a WC playoff appearance is too much money to spend? Perhaps we disagree, but a combination of the buzz created by Brown, a 45+ season (likely more but 45 is reasonable) and the first playoff appearance in 4 seasons isn't worth $2m? I respect your opinion as much as any one on this board, and even though I did not think Larry Brown was the be-all and end-all, the entire Brown fiasco left me disappointed and I have drawn the conclusion that the Rockets played this "on the cheap". The "best team ever assembled" went out to get the "best coach it could reasonably afford". That smacks of cheap to me. IMO, it will be Dunleavy for less than $4m. If I'm wrong, I'll be as much a sport as Juan Valdez and post an apology thread. PS - I also don't see the $15m in cap space you are seeing. I have the 2003-04 Pistons at $36.7m with Rip Hamilton as a QO FA.
From easiest to hardest: Not 15 mill in cap space. 15 mill in salary differential. The Rockets have ~51.7m in committed before Posey. The Pistons have 36.7m committed before Rip. There's the 15 mill. I recognize Posey won't resign for as much as Rip will, but I suspect we may use a good portion of the MCE. At least, I hope we do. If we don't resign Posey, and/or don't use our MCE, and/or make a major trade that affects our long term cap health (ie, an Odom acquisition), then I wil be extremely dissapointed as well. That hasn't come to pass, though. Yet. Yes, I do think a 2 mill bonus for making the playoffs is too much to spend. The Rockets were a game away as it was, and one could speculate, if Rudy was coaching at the end instead of Larry Smith, we make it. Heck, I think just the improvement of Yao from Year 1 to Year 2 may be enough to get us that extra boost to get into the playoffs. Maybe if we're talking 2nd round, maybe. But, I think JVG or even Dunleavy could get us into the playoffs. The thing about Brown was the possibility of him turning us into contenders. I would give him that bonus for doing that, but I don't pay a coach 7-8 mill a year just for getting us into the playoffs, the past 4 years notwithstanding. This team has more than enough talent to get into the playoffs, IMO. As far as Brown vs. a player... I usually subscribe to the theory of the players winning the games. I think it's possible Brown may have been to us what Phil Jackson was to the Lakers- the force that drove Kobe and Shaq together. But, it's all just speculation. I think this year especially,there are a number of highly qualified coaches out there. Personally, I wish we would've gone after Silas after Brown went off the market, but we're tardy on that as well. Basically, I'm waiting to see what we do before I pass judgements. If we end up going with Dunleavy for a low ball contract, not resigning Posey, not using much or any of our MCE, and basically walking in with last year's team minus Posey, then I'll start passing judgements on Les and the Rockets' management.
Fair enough. However.... The $15m differential gets wittled down by Hamilton's newer higher contract, Darko and 1 to 4 players to fill out their roster. No disagreement on the talent. I fall into the "Rockets as underachievers" camp. However, if the playoffs were too easy an incentive, perhaps total season wins would have been better. I'm sure good business minds could come up with some mutually beneficial incentives. Unless you flat out don't think any coach is worth $7m-$8m? That's only $1m-$2m more than RT and Brown has excellent teaching credentials. With the exception of the Clipps, his teams continued to win after he left. IMO, that "downstream" aspect of LB makes the investment much easier to swallow especially since the Rox are a young team and would benefit from someone regarded as an unsurpassed teacher of the game. Maybe in responding I have gotten to the core of my disappointment...if a player wasn't producing under RT, there was much debate about player or system. If a player is not performing under LB, there is much less to debate about player vs system. I'm not sure this can be said for MD or JVG. My jury is out on Silas. Success not withstanding..was he a big enough name? I have the suspicion that the Rox will either re-sign Posey or use the MLE but not both. For me at this juncture, it is going to take some strong management signals to wipe off the "cheap".
NIKE, what is the projected salary cap? If its around $52 million (a figure I have heard brandied about), that would rule out both the MCE, and Posey (who will probably command an MCE equivalent salary). In that case, it looks like Boki would be our starting SF next year. p.s. HP said Larry Coon is of the opinion there won't be a salary cap next year (based upon projected revenue), but I haven't heard this anywhere else. I'm curious to know if anyone else has heard this.
JBC - Are you sure HP said a salary cap or was it the luxury tax? I think it was the latter as the salary cap is a %age of BRI and never goes away. It is my understanding that the NBA Office will have to give teams a projected salary cap so that they may start player signings on July 1st. Why does Posey at the MCE exclude him from the Rox who have Posey's Bird Rights? I believe NIKE's $51.7m figure includes Posey $2.5 for Posey who is a QO FA.
My bad. I meant no luxury tax, not salary cap. I didn't know $2.5 million was figured in for Posey. I thought the $51.7 million figure was for next year's contracts. Posey made $1.726 million this year, and I figured he would get $4.5 or so next year - either as a Bird player from the Rockets, or the MCE from another team (like a Chicago, etc.). So my point is that signing Posey will push us over the luxury tax threshold, if there is one next year. Signing another player with the MCE will push us even further over the tax, and will cost Les $2 for every $1 paid (plus forfeiting the kickback pool from the luxury teams).
JBC - $2.5m is roughly a 10% raise over last years $1.7m. In the unlikely event no one would bid for JP, that is what his salary would be. If the Rox don't sign him to an extention, he would be an UNrestricted FA next summer (similar to the talk going on about what Brand will do). IMO, the Rox will use the $4.5m which would be the MLE to re-sign Posey whether there is an LTax or not. BTW, the Bulls are no longer cap darlings thanks primarily to Jalen Rose's $13.2m. I doubt Posey would go back to Denver and most of the teams with enough cap space to bid for Posey already have decent SF's - SAS, UTAH, LAC, ORL. Personally, I think he'll stay here for any reasonable over.
