[cbssports.com] Somehow, James Harden is overrated and underrated at the same.time

cdrive · Sep 21, 2016

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Somehow, James Harden is overrated and underrated at the same time

It makes him one of the hardest players in the league to define

by Matt Moore

James Harden is one of the trickiest players to define in today's NBA. Twenty years ago, he's a no-brainer superstar. Offensively brilliant. Scores a ton of points. Stars in commercials. But these days, we actually evaluate, and to some degree appreciate, defense. I won't say we consider it an equal part of the game, because frankly, it probably isn't. In reality, great offense rightfully gives you a lot of leeway on the other end.

For guys like Harden -- or, say, a Carmelo Anthony, or in the past Steve Nash -- it's a question of how much leeway. In other words, is Harden's offense brilliant enough to largely excuse his noted defensive ineptitude? That's difficult to define and depends on who you're talking to. Again, Harden is a tricky player to evaluate. He exists in a sort of nexus of offensive brilliance and defensive garbage smelt, perhaps underrated and overrated at the same time.
The only thing I do know is that to have any chance of answering this question as to whether Harden is, in fact, a modern-day superstar, we can't speak in generalities. We can't just say he's a great offensive player and a dog defensively, and just accept that at surface value. We have to dig deeper. Beneath the numbers. We have to look at the whole deal. The ever-elusive impact. We have to ask honest questions about how much, and why, we value aesthetics.
Is it possible, for instance, that Harden is even better offensively than we give him credit for? Has our frustration with his foul-hunting tendencies, and our fascination with his infamous defensive lapses, irresponsibly impaired our overall judgment of him? For that matter, is his defense actually, consistently, as bad as the internet makes it out to be?
How much of this is real, and how much do we want to be real?
When it comes to James Harden, these are the questions.
And they are not easy to answer.

First, the good news

I'm just going to say this right out: Yes, we absolutely underrate James Harden's offensive genius, in large part because we let the mockery of his defense disproportionately shape the conversation around him. Plus, again, we get way too hung up on his obsession with drawing fouls, as if an 85-percent free throw shooter having a knack for getting to the line is somehow a bad thing.

If you're not careful, you can start thinking of James Harden as a defensive joke who makes a bunch of free throws, when in fact he is one of the five best, most versatile offensive players in the world, and even that might be conservative. He's a better passer than Steph Curry (maybe not as flashy, but better), a better scorer than Chris Paul, a better pure shooter than LeBron James, a better everything than Paul George.
Here is a list of players who have averaged 35 points or more per 100 possessions, while playing an average of 62 games and 30 minutes a night, over the last four years.
(table)
This is clearly an elite list, and yet even this fails to completely capture Harden's scoring prowess. Consider that last year he was 11th among all players who averaged more than 35 minutes in team offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) while he was on the floor, despite Houston having few shooters to surround him. He was third in offensive win shares, and fourth in Offensive Box Plus-Minus.
What's most impressive is how Harden isn't just top-flight in specialized areas, but nearly ubiquitous in his offensive awesomeness. Typically players of high volume suffer in the efficiency department, but not Harden, who ranks in the 65th percentile or better in seven different offensive sets, via Synergy Sports -- he is in the 90th percentile for off-the-dribble jump shots and the 88th percentile for guarded catch-and-shoots.
The guy is also a straight maestro in the pick and roll. His ability to make reads while the play is developing, combined with his efficient shot selection, makes him nearly impossible to cover. Watch what happens when the defender tries to jump the screen to Harden's left side -- which you basically have to do, because if you give him the left side, you're done.
(video)
Try to get aggressive going over the screen to contest, he's going to draw the foul on you every time.

Again, the rejection of Harden's offensive brilliance pretends that drawing free throws isn't a skill, when it clearly is. Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter, Chris Paul, these are all great players who were terrific at drawing contact. It's a skill, the same as any, provided you don't go too far down the rabbit hole trying to chase the whistle.
There are times when Harden does search for free throws without really looking for offense. That's where he gets into trouble. He winds up focusing on drawing contact with very little regard for actually finishing the move.

But for the most part, he doesn't recklessly seek out contact. He's just a very savvy, very skilled athlete with tremendous body control. In the clip below, watch how he puts the ball out in front of him, inviting defenders to swipe, only to anticipate the contact perfectly while still managing to hold onto the ball and convert.

(video)

You just can't teach that. It's total feel, coordination and anticipation. It helps that Harden's handle, while not quite at the level of a Steph Curry or Kyrie Irving, is legitimately crazy. When he's attacking, it's swooping and hard to track; when he's searching out of the pick and roll it's low and reverses course instantly.
His movements look kind of jerky, sluggish at times, out of control at others -- all of which, again, speaks to our preference for the silky motions of a guy like Curry or Irving. Harden more closely resembles a master student of the martial art Zi Quan, more commonly called Drunken Boxing.

(animated gif)
But don't be fooled. There is absolute precision in Harden's movements, elongated and careening as they might appear. He may lack the violent explosiveness of Russell Westbrook, and the beauty of his actions might not translate so well to TV, but his ability to finish on the back end of such maneuvers is a marvel.

(video)
Making him doubly dangerous is the fact that he doesn't have to get to the rim. Watch the damage he does on this step-back, entirely with his right hand no less.
(video)
And he needs very little time to secure his shot.
(video)
Then, if by some miracle you manage to stick with Harden, his passing ability burns you. Headed into next season there are questions about how he'll adjust without Dwight Howard, but Harden and Clint Capela have shown some nice chemistry.
(video)
And of course, there's the Eurostep. Harden absolutely annihilates defenders by drawing fouls with it. He does two things simultaneously: He warps time with how long the strides are before he switches his weight back, and he sells it perfectly. Watch his hips turn the defender in circles here.
(video)
And then sometimes -- or, actually, a lot of the time -- he just cooks.
(video)
Now, in fairness, Harden isn't a perfect offensive player. Last year he struggled in transition, where he only ranked in the 42nd percentile. This will be fascinating to watch this season, as Mike D'Antoni's system emphasizes transition and tempo, and there could be a clash if Harden doesn't clean up this part of his game. Harden often gets into trouble when he takes that drunken boxer mentality too far, getting a head of steam at half court and trying to convert wildly.
There's a lot of this going on.
(video)

Still, nobody is a perfect offensive player. Not even LeBron or Curry. Everyone has at least some kind of hole. But Harden doesn't have many. (He's notably bad at runners and actually struggled considerably in transition last year. You wonder what effect Mike D'Antoni will have on that.) But all told, he is nearly flawless with the ball in his hands. He has every shot in the bag, every move in the book. He is absolutely underrated on that end, which is really saying something for a guy who is pretty universally regarded as an elite offensive player.

Now for the bad news

read on...
Click to expand...

Some seriously good takes in the 1st half of the article...which I read...the second half that criticizes Harden....I haven't read that just yet 'cause I'm afraid it's just going to piss me off.

But I like Matt Moore / @HPbasketball . He's a good follow and he gives Harden props when so many just call him a ball hogging flopper. A lot of work and film study went into this article. Nice collection of film embedded in the article.

MadMax · Sep 21, 2016

Not a fan of HPBasketball. Not even a little bit. He was the master of framing the narrative he sought to tell without even seeing the games last year.

Mr. Clutch · Sep 21, 2016

Thanks for posting. Didn't get into turnovers but pretty comprehensive look at his good offense and bad defense

Shroopy2 · Sep 21, 2016

cdrive said: ↑

Some seriously good takes in the 1st half of the article...which I read..

The second half that criticizes Harden....I haven't read that just yet 'cause I'm afraid it's just going to piss me off.
Click to expand...

Will fill you in on a piece of the negative part. Did an ok job showing different types of defensive looks. But its actually cause for Rockets worry...

"Now the BAD News"
[RQUOTEr]
But he's not adequate. He's not below average. He's a complete hole in the earth on the defensive end. His effort and awareness are inexcusable. Here are a few markers to consider:

Harden had the 22nd worst mark of 76 players who played 30 minutes per night for 60 games last year in defensive box-score plus minus, which measures impact on vs. off the floor.
in defensive box-score plus minus
[/rQUOTEr]

Harden almost bottom 1/4 of heavy minute players in box-score DPM. Is that too surprising? Not really

But its WHO is #1 WORST ON that list in Defense?? New Rocket RYAN ANDERSON . . . Thats the ACTUAL "bad news" of it

** Biggest surprise on list...#4 WORST is highly heralded "two-way" player Klay Thompson. The same rank as DAMIAN LILLAR_. That should be almost just as much need for scrutiny about being overrated/underrated. Especially when Thompson is often mentioned as an anti-example of Harden

heypartner · Sep 21, 2016

Shroopy2 said: ↑

"Now the BAD News"
[RQUOTEr]
But he's not adequate. He's not below average. He's a complete hole in the earth on the defensive end. His effort and awareness are inexcusable. Here are a few markers to consider:

Harden had the 22nd worst mark of 76 players who played 30 minutes per night for 60 games last year in defensive box-score plus minus, which measures impact on vs. off the floor.
in defensive box-score plus minus
[/rQUOTEr]
Click to expand...

So, Harden is 22nd worst and Avery Bradley is 25th worst, and Bradley was NBA 1st Team All-Defense guard.

The stat just sucks. And Bradley isn't the only top defender with a horribly rating by this stat. Why do ppl point this stat out when it has such huge flaws in it to rate a 1st Team Defender so poorly.

I'm not here to defend Harden at all. I'm posting to hopefully spread the word about how useless DBPM is.

rocketsballin · Sep 23, 2016

overrated on o, underrated on d

hakeem94 · Sep 23, 2016

heypartner said: ↑

So, Harden is 22nd worst and Avery Bradley is 25th worst, and Bradley was NBA 1st Team All-Defense guard.

The stat just sucks. And Bradley isn't the only top defender with a horribly rating by this stat. Why do ppl point this stat out when it has such huge flaws in it to rate a 1st Team Defender so poorly.

I'm not here to defend Harden at all. I'm posting to hopefully spread the word about how useless DBPM is.
Click to expand...

Thanks, that was enlightening.

HardenTime · Sep 23, 2016

another harden article

when the media gonna talk about stephen currys turnovers and crap defense.. oh i know why

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[cbssports.com] Somehow, James Harden is overrated and underrated at the same.time

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