Right, but that window extends until next spring, correct? I agree that there's an inevitable parting in the future, but it shouldn't impact the 2014 season, as far as I can tell.
I think 8 wins is on the high side. I have them at anywhere between 5-8 wins. An 8-8 season would be great but I just don't see them sneaking into the playoffs unless you figure two teams from the AFC South making the playoffs which I consider to be very unlikely. I am just not optimistic about Fitzpatrick running the offense which I expect to struggle to put points on the board even with the offensive weapons they have on the team. Defensively on paper, they look to be in great shape but there will be some growing pains as they are adjusting to a new system.
Fitzpatrick is a turnover machine but he won't keep an offense from being effective. The Titans put up points with him at QB, and the Bills did as well when he was there. He will be an improvement over the dreadful offense we had to see last year towards the end of the year.
The AFC South is weak, the Texans' schedule is weak. "The high side" would be 10 wins given those two factors. 8 wins should be seen as the goal with anything more being a bonus and probably leading to a playoff berth
I believe that you are overvaluing the QB position in order to predict their getting 10 wins so we'll just have to differ here. It all depends on how much BoB can reduce the demands on Fitzpatrick - in effect making him another Trent Dilfer. The more they have to rely on him to make plays in order to be successful the worse the offense will suffer. I suppose an 8 win improvement isn't totally out of the question just unlikely IMO.
No, I believe that you are the one overvaluing the QB position, you seem to think that games will come down to Fitzpatrick vs the other team while I think it is a team game and the QB is just one part of that team. IMO this team will win with defense and running the ball, the QB's expected contributions will be negligible. As to my expectations, I expect 8 wins, I hope for 10 because that would win the division.
I need to see INDIE's schedule .. . .I am concerned that they will go 11-5 or have tie breakers Rocket River
I expect 5 wins. This off season really really reminds me of a lot of the years before 2011. Unselling assets when on paper the team isn't great. Not having Owen Daniels was a real problem and losing Ben Tate is going to be killer. Unproved coach, proven bad QB. It's not going to be great. The secret to the success for New England's offense wasn't Bill O'brien. It was Tom Brady.
1 Sun, Sep 7 @ Denver Loss 2 Mon, Sep 15 vs Philadelphia Loss 3 Sun, Sep 21 @ Jacksonville Win 4 Sun, Sep 28 vs Tennessee Win 5 Sun, Oct 5 vs Baltimore Toss up 6 Thu, Oct 9 @ Houston Loss 7 Sun, Oct 19 vs Cincinnati Loss 8 Sun, Oct 26 @ Pittsburgh Win 9 Mon, Nov 3 @ Giants Toss up 10 BYE WEEK 11 Sun, Nov 16 vs New England Loss 12 Sun, Nov 23 vs Jacksonville Win 13 Sun, Nov 30 vs Washington Toss up (neither team plays defense) 14 Sun, Dec 7 @Cleveland Win 15 Sun, Dec 14 vs Houston Win 16 Sun, Dec 21 @ Dallas Win 17 Sun, Dec 28 @ Tennessee Loss By my count 7 likely wins, 3 toss up games, and 6 likely losses. The Colts aren't a good team really, their defense is poor and their running game is weak. I think the Colts get 9 or 10 wins this year.
Here is the way I look at our schedule. First, Im going to go with the Vegas odds before the NFL draft. Yes, Vegas odds arent the Bible, but, more times than not, they can give a fairly accurate prediction of what is to come. Texans were at 8.5 wins. In the AFC, there are only 5 teams that have an over/under of 9 wins. Those 6 teams are the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Steelers. The Ravens are slated for 8.5 wins, like the Texans. For the sake of this conversation, lets give the Ravens the edge and put them at the #6 spot in the AFC. Having said that, lets look at our schedule. Redskins - 7 Raiders - 5 Giants - 7 Bills - 6.5 Cowboys - 8 Colts - 9 Steelers - 9 Titans - 6.5 Eagles - 8.5 Browns - 6.5 Bengals - 9 Titans - 6.5 Jaguars - 4.5 Colts - 9 Ravens - 8.5 Jaguars - 4.5 If you look at the schedule, we play 5 games against the top 6 teams in the AFC. However, are the Steelers, Bengals, Colts, and Ravens really that scary? These guys are predicted to have an over/under that is 0.5 games higher than the Texans. Now, look at the rest of the schedule...We have 7 games against opponents that have an over/under of 6.5 games. I think Fitzpatrick is not getting nearly the credit he should be getting. It's easy to look at his Buffalo years, see a terrible franchise, and assume that he's guilty of sucking. Given what he had to work with, throwing for an average of 24 TDs during his last 3 seasons...that's pretty damn good. He played on a team there where he had to force plays and try to make things happen. That's not the type of QB he is. If we have a strong defense where he doesnt have to pull a Matt Schaub of 2009, then he can be a very stable QB for a 9-10 win team. I wouldnt predict the playoffs, but I dont think it's outside the realm of possibility...at all.
The gif you posted doesn't go along with this conversation....it's really just sort of random so I'll post a random gif too OD was on the downside of his career and he couldn't stay healthy, there could be some drop-off, but I doubt it'll be all that noticeable. The TE corps overall is better this year than last year. Losing a backup RB is going to be "killer"? Really? Look, I get that the pessimist angle is a lot more comfortable right now because of how bad last year was, but there is a lot more going right with the team than going wrong.
What? How is it random? You said that the QB is over emphasized as a contributing team member when our QB was a key part to our struggles and losses. The point of showing Shauab's pick 6's and Rosencopter is to show that you are severely underestimating the importance of good QB play. How do you not get that? Tate was good enough to start for a lot of teams and he was a big part of covering up for Foster's injuries. Plus, it meant less reps for Foster which helps his endurance and overall health. STOP with the pessimist bull****. It's super annoying. Unless you want to say that you are being optimistic which is influencing your reasoned opinion of the team then stop dismissing the people who disagree with you as pessimists. There is no point to discussion then.
The gif I showed was a larger part of the struggles the team had and contributed more to our losses. I know it's trendy to blame everything on QB play, but that's not really in touch with reality. The Ravens won 8 games with even worse QB play, the Giants won 7 games with significantly worse QB play. Of course that doesn't go along with popular tropes because we are supposed to believe that football is a one on one game played by 2 QB's facing off in the middle of the field. As to the RB situation, you can't assume that Foster will miss significant time again this year and Brown is a capable backup who can take on the 150 or so rushing attempts that Tate would have had. I say you are being pessimistic because I don't believe you are being reasonable in your assessments. Pointing to a backup RB as a reason for concern? C'mon man. Looking at the schedule 8 wins isn't "optimistic"
Also, consider this, I'm not suggesting that the Texans treat Fitz like Schaub, having him throw the ball 35 times a game. I'm suggesting they treat him like the Niners treat Kap and the Seachickens treat Russell Wilson. Limit him to around 25 pass attempts per game and make them very safe. The Texans have the offensive weapons to make it happen and the Niners and Seahawks have both gotten to the SB with the defense/run game strengths and keeping a muzzle on the QB. I don't know why people think it can't work here.
Kap and Wilson have more intangibles than Fitz 1. bettiner scramblers/runners - just having the threat helps the offense 2. Of the three . . .who has the worst arm? [I seriously don't think much of fitz's arm but hey . . i am open to the possibility] Since IMO we have the worse of the three compared . . .means our defense has to be the best of the three Rocket River
Sure both of those guys are better scramblers, but neither are as good when it comes to being passers. The knock on Fitz is his turnovers, not his passing ability. I think they just asked too much of him and gave him too few weapons in the past. Lighten his load a bit and give him a better line and better passing options like he'll have in Houston and I think he'll surprise some people. There's a reason that Wilson and Kap's team have made them the starting QB's that pass the least often year after year, neither are terribly good at it. Have Wilson or Kap throw the ball 560+ times a year like Schaub and Fitz were expected to and they'd toss 20+ interceptions a year.
Oh, I absolutely think that he is. I was just looking at it from the Texans' perspective. To me, the value he's going to bring the team on the field this fall surpasses whatever middling draft pick they might could get via trade. Even if they're planning on releasing him in 2015, which seems likely.
Probably because Seattle and San Francisco have dominant defenses and we don't. The Texans defense isn't on Seattle's and San Francisco's level, and Fitzpatrick isn't on Russell's and Kaepernick's level... But one can dream.
