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CBO: $15 minimum wage hike would cost 1.4M jobs

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Amiga, Feb 9, 2021.

  1. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

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    Dan Price
    @DanPriceSeattle

    ·
    20h

    A $15 min wage would cut 1.4 million jobs and remove 900,000 people from poverty. How could losing jobs eliminate poverty? Those "lost" jobs are actually 2nd jobs needed to make ends meet. 1 good job at $15/hour is better than 2 bad ones at $7.25/hour
     
  2. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Does one of the two "bad" jobs become a "good" job because the pay essentially doubles?
     
  3. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    Yea, those are ALREADY happening and continue to happen. I doubt the $15 increase changes that direction much. It was going to happen either way and was already somewhat baked in. Covid in fact is a bigger factor in accelerating that (less office space, less human touch, more online order, ...).

    I think the potential much larger *shock* to the workforce is the higher wage routine works that can and will be automated. That hasn't yet happened but is coming. (but not all gloom and doom - look at what happen to bank tellers).

    In general, on the $15 --- yes, there is some short-term pain, but long term it makes sense. I think the $11-12 range is probably political much easier to bite (and add in inflation adjustment). US society wise, we should be striving for higher pay, higher quality job, higher skills jobs. If we could automate away all of these routines and intense manual, boring jobs - long term that would be beneficial. I doubt we could though.

    Marriage :). I like Yang idea there. Why aren't we paying a parent to stay home and raise kids? ;)
     
  4. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    If they go the FL route and increase it over several years, it will be a good thing. Its going to hurt those who currently making $15.00 an hour. While $15.00 an hour isn't a hot wage by any means, you have just put that whole workforce at minimum wage level. Going from $7.50 to $15.00 is doubling the wage. Those currently making $15.00 will not get a double wage increase.

    I still believe this is a very poor monetary policy to encourage inflation.
     
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  5. Nook

    Nook Member

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    I got it from the CBO (congressional budget office).

    There isn't an agreement, but yes some economists have warned of inflation with the stimulus.
     
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  6. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    I assume $15 by 2025 means moderate increases starting in 2022, so 3 years steps.

    In theory, price should go up, but in practice, busn will still have to compete on price... increased productivity (greater chance with higher pay and happier employee), reduced cost elsewhere (including less hires and greater retention) can offset.
     
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  7. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    How is that hurting the 15.00 an hour person?

    they still will get the same wages.
     
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  8. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    That's the way I look at it but got to increase those profit margins at all cost.
     
  9. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    Removing federal assistance needs for those earning minimum wage seems like it saves taxpayers money and puts the burden on McDonalds and Walmart to pay their employees a living wage. Doesn’t seem like poor monetary policy to me.
     
  10. Amiga

    Amiga 10 years ago...
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    The way I see it, if labor costs is the driver of customer price, the business is already in trouble. Customer price is mainly driven by other costs (raw material for example) and competition. But of course, if labor cost jump 100% overnight, we got a big problem.
     
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  11. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Im not sure why I need to explain this.

    The guy flipping burgers and ****ing up your MCD's order making $7.50 does not have the same skill set as the guy across the street working at a factory making $15.00 an hour.
     
  12. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    The problem with this solution is that increase in consumer prices make the new raised minimum wage no longer enough. The fact is that raising the minimum wage doesn't solve the issue because it just makes $15/hr the equivalent of $7.50

    Should the minimum wage be inflation adjusted? Yes. But again, the issue isn't the minimum wage, it's that we need a system to ensure that anyone working - even at a minimum wage job, can find a safe place to live, eat, have health care, and can get skills to improve their standing. That will not just strengthen their lives but also the entire country.
     
  13. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    $15.00 is not a livinge wage so therefore the fed. assistance programs are not going away. I dont have a problem with that. The idea that $15.00 is a living wage is ridiculous.
    The burden will not be placed on McDonalds or Walmart. Your 401k dictates they turn a profit. Wage increase will be passed on by job elimination due to automation and costs passed to the customers. I dont have a problem with that.

    I stated its a poor monetary policy to facilitate inflation in a time when wasteful helicopter drops of cash are popular and multi-trillion dollar infusions are happening every 6 months.

    If we want to create jobs, then spend a couple trillion on infrastructure projects. If we are really concerned about poor people, then expand welfare assistance to include further forbearances on homeowners and rent vouchers.
     
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  14. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    How is that hurting anybody?

    Please explain how somebody is getting hurt because they make the same as me?

    Why is the guy who is just pushing a button or flipping a switch more important than the burger flipper?

    I have worked at factory jobs that involved less work than McD's, so yeah explain.
     
  15. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Please return Sweet Lou's account back to him. You're making too much sense.
     
  16. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    That's not true, though. Costs of goods aren't directly tied to the minimum wage. I've lived in TX and in CA and the higher minimum wage in the latter doesn't mean that food costs proportionately more, or that buying goods from Amazon costs more. Some things cost significantly more, like housing and fuel, but there are way more factors that explain that difference.

    Pay people enough that they can support themselves.
     
  17. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    It does not just make 15hr the equivalent of 7.50hr that makes no sense if I got a raise of 5 dollars how does that make it the same and this will be phased in.

    I agree we need that system but it would still cost the same.
     
  18. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Incentive of work? We are not communist.

    Assuming you work, would you like the least skilled/responsible person in your company to making the same amount as you?
     
  19. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    It's a temporary boost as inflation just readjusts the wage. Which is why I don't support minimum wage increases beyond keeping up with inflation.
     
  20. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Most economic analysis on minimum wage show that increasing it has little to no impact on low-income standard of living nor benefits GDP.

    Raising minimum wage increases all wages because if you are working at a job paying you say $15 currently and the minimum wage goes to $15, now you have natural pressure for a raise.

    Labor costs ultimately are the primary driver of inflation. If the goal is to make people's lives better, raising the minimum wage isn't the right long-term solution.
     

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