cat's past 27 games...it's more than a hot streak.

Originally posted by verse
let's see...so the team is 12-15, so cat's production MUST be bad for the team.

yep. makes perfect sense to me.

Hey you're the one who brought it up.

this is what i'm talking about. so, 47% & 25 ppg isn't good for the team? i mean, i understand that cat has not *yet* reached the level of "making his teammates better"

If Cat is getting great numbers at the expense of alienating teammates on offense and we still have a losing record, is that good for the team? It's been demonstrated here many times that Cat does not pass the ball. He's had games where he played 40+ minutes without a single assist. So... is his production "good" for the team if we don't win? Or is the way he achieves those numbers (constant iso's) counterproductive to a team concept? That remains to be seen. If Cat puts up big numbers and we can win then great, if not then we need to distribute the scoring more by involving everyone.

notice you said elite "team". that means there are other players that have to perform in order to reach elite status. he is doing his part. even if you threw in 2 more assists per game from mobley, i don't imagine our record would be much different. maybe worse. point being, he (cat) is doing what he can. take him out the rockets lineup and we are downright dirt-awful. worse than we are now....much worse.

Well wait a minute if you're going to place Mobley in an elite or MVP class of player then what players are not performing? What role players on LA perform better than the Rockets? Do you want Samaki Walker over Kenny Thomas? Do you want Derek Fisher over Kelvin Cato? Do you want Robert Horry over Eddie Griffin? If Cat is an MVP player as some of you are claiming then he should be capable of putting a team on his shoulders like other elite players. The Lakers record without Shaq is considerably better than the Rockets record without Francis. So how are any of you seriously going to compare Kobe Bryant's numbers with Cat's?

 

I think Rudy is the one to thank you Cat's turn around. Watch where he gets the ball. In the past he would dribble it down or go out and get it 4-5 ft from the three point line on either wing. Now, they run a down screen for him up pop open in the middle just inside the arc. Cat is LETHAL from there. He's too quick if he wants to drive, his shot is too good not to be respected - you can see the ENTIRE court from the middle.. and it's extremely hard to be trapped. When he was on the outside wings, he had essentially 4 defenders.. sideline and baseline + the double team running over. THAT's where the Rockets get in trouble, when they try to run an iso in a side corner. This is worse for guards like Cuttino because as mentioned he's undersized, so it's even harder to see out of the trap and make a good pass. Often he would try to dribble through it and it broke loose from there. Now that he has it in the middle, he's near unstoppable

-LTF

 

First off Timing, I can't have a discussion with you if you are going to distort my words and say I was comparing Mobley to Larry Bird. I was comparing shot selection of choosing a money shot. Mobley is shooting a step back ala Bird and Dennis Johnson. Very convenient of you to not notice I mentioned Dennis Johnson. When people name types of shots, it is very common to mention the masters of them. Bird is renowned for his step-back and he credits Dennis Johnson with having the best. That is merely a means to describe shot selection in conversation, not compare Mobley to Johnson or Bird. Somewhat like saying Griffin has shown the ability to hit a Rasheed Wallace turnaround. That does not mean you are comparing Griffin to Rasheed, just the type of shot.

I'm with verse on this one. You seem to be just looking for negatives. If you don't like Mobley's game, fine. But are you not interested in discussing with about 5 other watchful fans in this thread that we are spotting a mechanics adjustment and Mobley's ability to read defenses better to know where he can and cannot create shots for himself.

What is your point with all this?

No I don't remember that. If I did, it is not that big of a deal. Like losing my moniker in a bet on who we will pick--a SF or PF. I don't make predictions or speculate...except just for fun.

That said, <b>Mobley did surpass Steve</b> with about a week to go, and Steve nipped him at the end, in like the last couple of games. right? Mobley scored over 21ppg as a starter last year, and scored over 10ppg in the 4th Quarter for a huge portion of the seaons, if not the whole season. (Lisa Malosky kept track of that one, so I don't recall the final tally.)....I guess 4th Q scoring is detrimental to the Rockets or is because of junk ball stat padding I guess. whatever.

What is the big deal here? I am talking about mechanics of his shot and how he is creating on his own. Who cares that the scoring numbers are 25ppg; I'm more interested in the efficiency? It would be great if Francis wasn't in a shooting slump, but what does that have to do with Mobley's improved shot?

What does Mobley's adjustments to improve himself have to do with Steve Francis's or anyone for that matter? Should we mention Steve Francis's headaches when talking about Kenny Thomas's Raging Bull moves to the basket, now? Who cares about why the scoring stats are the way they are...I'm glad Kenny is nailing that shot at 50%. You know he is shooting 52% since the Shareef fight? I'm glad Mobley has a smoother shot. Francis wasn't going to make that happen. What does Francis have to do with individual improvement?

please tell me Timing.

<b>lastly, I don't agree with you 3 1/2 sucky years thingy</b>

First off, have you even noticed he is shooting 42% from 3s for the season. That is not a 28 game fluke, as you'd call it. That is major, undeniable improvement there. How is he doing it? Many of us have noticed a more controlled, and steady stroke...a reproduceable stroke. That's the difference this year, and now he is translating it to his midrange.

Mobley did as ordered his rookie year. He exceeded what anyone expected. He primarily was a distance, spot up shooter. He was ordered to extend his shooting range vs college. I thought he did pretty well. Only someone looking to exaggerate history would add that year in as a sucky year.

<b>OK how about his 2nd Yr, 1999-2000</b>

In this year when Hakeem and Barkley went down. TMass pretty much never played, and Cato was oft injured. No front court and total disarray in Nov-Dec. In that environment, do you even realize he shot 46.4% to close out his last 46 games, including 50.0% from two point range, and 38.3% from 3s? You can therefore take out another 1/2 yr.

Do you not believe those stats. I'll post the entire 46 games, if you want. The last 46 games at 46.4%, starting Jan 15th, without any front court to speak off, just when Francis started getting confortable. That was in a 6th man role, too. You know what is ironic? That 46.4% is EXACTLY what Vinnie Johson shot in their 1st Title season.

Dude, the stats show he can shoot. He's just one of those players who has to learn from his mistakes. But he does improve, if you just stop seeing only his mistakes.

Cuttino has corrected a mechanical problem with his shot, and is seeing his scoring opportunities better. How'd he do it: Learning from his mistakes, a lot of practice, and a coach who gave him the requisite live action reps in two "meaningless seasons" as you put it (2000 and 2002) As the title of thread stats, it is more than a hot streak.

<b>Be happy for improvement Timing</b>

You really do sound like you are just trying to win an argument. Why? I came here to talk about the art of shooting and see if others are seeing a different stroke by Mobley. Forget the 25ppg, can't you at least recognize Mobley is displaying a smoother mid-range...and a deadly one. That's what I want my shooting guard to do. Plus, it is just going to make his drives all the more potent.

How can you not think that a guy who can catch-n-shoot, drive, and now hit midranges off the dribble at a high clip is not flexible to fit in any system? He'll adjust to whatever Francis/Rudy want to run.

relax...watch the rest of the season and have fun cheering for Mobley improvement...as well as Francis...cause we need it.

 

It has not been demonstrated by anyone that he doesn't pass. Not getting assists doesn't mean you don't pass. It only means guys don't score after you pass it to them.

 

I think it's reasonable to assume that when players who have the ball much less than Cat get more assists then Cat is clearly not passing the ball. Not getting assists when other players are getting them means something.

 

Well, that would make sense except only Moochie and Francis have more assists that Cat.

And if you are talking about other teams, you are talking apples and oranges. Our system is geered for ball movement to penetrators who take the passes into seams. You can't get an assist if someone like Walt or Griffin takes that the pass and pump fakes then dribbles in closer for a shot. Don't you see that's why Francis's assist are so low?

Do I think Mobley has good court vision? No?
Do I think he could get 3.5 assists in another system with a good front court. Yes.
Is 3.5 assists standard in the NBA for SGs? Yes.
Do I think Francis's PG assist numbers are below average about the same as Mobley's are? roughly.

Do I think assists numbers have anything to do with Rockets Ball Movement?

i don't know...but Jonathan Feigen wrote an article titled, ironically enough, <a href="http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/sports/bk/bkn/1296526">Stats inconclusive, but passing, defense paying off</a>

So, why don't you email Feigen and argue with him, or just blame Rudy or something.

umkay.

 

Originally posted by crispee
First off Timing, I can't have a discussion with you if you are going to distort my words and say I was comparing Mobley to Larry Bird. I was comparing shot selection of choosing a money shot. Mobley is shooting a step back ala Bird and Dennis Johnson. Very convenient of you to not notice I mentioned Dennis Johnson. When people name types of shots, it is very common to mention the masters of them. Bird is renowned for his step-back and he credits Dennis Johnson with having the best. That is merely a means to describe shot selection in conversation, not compare Mobley to Johnson or Bird. Somewhat like saying Griffin has shown the ability to hit a Rasheed Wallace turnaround. That does not mean you are comparing Griffin to Rasheed, just the type of shot.

Boylen or somebody corrected that. Cat now goes straight up or does his unstoppable step-back J ala Larry Bird/Dennis Johnson.

I find you saying that Cat has an unstoppable step-back J ala Larry Bird to be a Larry Bird comparison. I don't know how you see that as a distortion. You can further quantify it and specify it but it's still a Bird comparison. I'm not a fan of comparing the shots, play of Hall of Famers to present day players who are quite clearly nowhere near their class in the area being discussed.

I'm with verse on this one. You seem to be just looking for negatives. If you don't like Mobley's game, fine. But are you not interested in discussing with about 5 other watchful fans in this thread that we are spotting a mechanics adjustment and Mobley's ability to read defenses better to know where he can and cannot create shots for himself.

What is your point with all this?

What is yours? I was baited into this discussion and had no interest in being a part of it until then. Discuss Mobley's game all you want, that's great. I noticed that all the Rockets are making their iso moves much more decisively and more quickly after receiving the ball since the All-Star break. That wasn't the reason I was baited into this discussion however.

No I don't remember that. If I did, it is not that big of a deal. Like losing my moniker in a bet on who we will pick--a SF or PF. I don't make predictions or speculate...except just for fun.

Okay.

What is the big deal here? I am talking about mechanics of his shot and how he is creating on his own. Who cares that the scoring numbers are 25ppg; I'm more interested in the efficiency? It would be great if Francis wasn't in a shooting slump, but what does that have to do with Mobley's improved shot?

Well I have always been interested in Mobley's efficiency and all of my so-called "hater" posts have reflected that I'd think since I've always focused on his shooting %. Is it an improved shot is my question. The 3pt shooting % is a function of the new rules IMHO. How else would you explain how his 3pt% was constant for three full seasons and then takes a significant jump? Why is his 3 point % so much higher than in the past but his 2 point % is right about where it's always been? Since Mobley has always been a workaholic every offseason I don't buy into the shot improvement theory quite so easily especially considering the 2 point vs 3 point % and the new rules.

What does Mobley's adjustments to improve himself have to do with Steve Francis's or anyone for that matter? Should we mention Steve Francis's headaches when talking about Kenny Thomas's Raging Bull moves to the basket, now? Who cares about why the scoring stats are the way they are...I'm glad Kenny is nailing that shot at 50%. You know he is shooting 52% since the Shareef fight? I'm glad Mobley has a smoother shot. Francis wasn't going to make that happen. What does Francis have to do with individual improvement?

Francis taking a lesser role is allowing other players to explore their game further. I don't think that's too hard to see. Francis is fully capable of scoring 25 pts/game for a full season and if he were to do that you may not see offensive improvement by Kenny or Cat because their chances would be fewer.

<b>lastly, I don't agree with you 3 1/2 sucky years thingy</b>

Nowhere have I said 3 1/2 sucky years. I've said we cannot throw away 3 1/2 years of play over 27 games. You want to splice seasons apart and cherry pick what you want to make your case. I'll just take the whole season to judge him just the way other players are judged.

Dude, the stats show he can shoot.

Dude the stats show he's a 43% shooter for his career and just barely hit 44% with his last game.

You really do sound like you are just trying to win an argument. Why? I came here to talk about the art of shooting and see if others are seeing a different stroke by Mobley. Forget the 25ppg, can't you at least recognize Mobley is displaying a smoother mid-range...and a deadly one. That's what I want my shooting guard to do. Plus, it is just going to make his drives all the more potent.

Where are you coming from man? I'm here to show that 27 game comparisons aren't conclusive and that comparing Ray Allen's or Kobe Bryant's season numbers to Cat's 27 games is terrible. I'm here to show the team is 12-15 in these MVP caliber 27 games. I'm here to discourage comparing Cat's shot with that of a Hall of Famer who was so far and away a better shooter that it's not funny.

How can you not think that a guy who can catch-n-shoot, drive, and now hit midranges off the dribble at a high clip is not flexible to fit in any system? He'll adjust to whatever Francis/Rudy want to run.

In what decade is 43% a high clip? 1950's? If he's flexible enough to fit in any system then why do we run an iso offense that doesn't involve everyone? If Cat is just that good why don't we run an offense where he can set people up with easy shots instead of everyone being forced to break their man down off the dribble? I guess Cat isn't quite as good as you think he is or Rudy isn't a very good coach.

relax...watch the rest of the season and have fun cheering for Mobley improvement...as well as Francis...cause we need it.

I will...

 

Originally posted by crispee
Well, that would make sense except only Moochie and Francis have more assists that Cat.

Well that would make sense because they're the only two players on the team who would ever have the ball more than Cat. In order for it not to make sense you'd have to assume that KT or Walt or whoever has the ball in their hands just as much as Cat which they clearly never do. Since Cat has the ball in his hands so much more than everyone except Moochie and Steve then obviously by sheer volume alone he's going to have more assists than KT or Walt.

And if you are talking about other teams, you are talking apples and oranges. Our system is geered for ball movement to penetrators who take the passes into seams. You can't get an assist if someone like Walt or Griffin takes that the pass and pump fakes then dribbles in closer for a shot. Don't you see that's why Francis's assist are so low?

Within the Rockets offense, Cat's assist numbers are still low even for an iso offense. This is not a discussion on why the Rockets don't get assists but rather why Mobley within our offense doesn't get more assists when he has the ball so much.

 

Timing, who do you like that plays or works for the Rockets?


You can't have a Kobe as the 2nd option unless you have the only thing better than Kobe as the 1st option, SHAQ. At this point, I'm perfectly happy that Steve's SIDEkick is playing this well, and I'm talking about season averages.

 

Just for the sake of argument let's say that for every shot a player takes they have the same chance as every other player to pass/get an assist. I think I would argue that a guard has more of a chance than a post player but anyways...

Moochie .632 assists/shot
Francis .386 assists/shot
Brown .279 assists/shot
Rice .185 assists/shot
Collier .173 assists/shot
Thomas .172 assists/shot
Walt .170 assists/shot
Mobley .142 assists/shot
Torres .114 assists/shot
Langhi .083 assists/shot
Cato .074 assists/shot
Griffin .073 assists/shot
Willis .054 assists/shot

Considering that I think it's pretty clear that Mobley has the ball as much as anyone on the team, it's a little startling that he'd rank 8th in this type of comparison.

 

His career stats show he's a .376 three point shooter which lowers his FG% despite being a great stat to show he's been a good shooter. FG% is more of a role players stat than a starters.

For his career he's made a living off attacking the defense which causes him to take "bad" shots or cause the defense to foul. He has made a living off the FT line for his career till this season.

Mobley sacrifices his FG% to score more points by shooting 3's (more so this season because of new rules) and getting the opponent in foul trouble (not so much this season because of new rules).

When I look at efficiency, I look at how many points is he scoring per shoot, is he getting to the line, is he hitting 3 pointers.

How does a bad shooter hit 37 % of his 3 pointers and 80% of his FTs? FG% is a stat role players excel at like Shannon. Scorers worry about putting points on the board at a high clip any way they can. They don't go, "Man if I keep taking threes, my FG% will go down."

 

KT and Eddie are my favorite players. They're all business on the court and I love that.

 

Except for the fact Mobley scores off more assists than anyone. Griffin scores off assists well too. KT drives a lot, but does finish off some assists.

Mobley is the most efficient scorer (under adg FG% and not counting Cato) the rockets have and has a bad assist to turnover. Isn't it smarter for him to shoot the ball?

 

This argument is pointless, on both sides.

.142 assists/shot is terribly low, even for a SG, even in our offense.

but Cuttino's improvement over the last few months is undeniable. his shot is better, as is, generally his shot selection. He no longer holds the ball and waits on open 3 pointers and he is learning to play with the ball less in other situations as well. the assists category is the only one which needs improvement. 4.2 boards a game is very good. he gets 1.5 steals a game as well.

but, in the end, who cares. if you can really point to any offensive factor as the reason for our losing than you haven't been watching the Rockets. They lose because they can't play defense, plain and simple. Without fail, when they play defense, they win.

 

I compared it to Dennis Johnson as well. In the context of my statements, I was referring to how some people must shoot difficult shots. If a player's money shot can't be blocked and they make them at a high clip, the shot is characterized as "unstoppable." The defense can't do anything about it.

How many people do you talk basketball with, to not be able to following that context?? It is a very common conversation to talk about whether a player has an unstoppable money shot (a goto shot). The context was about the type of shot, not whether he could win a shooting contest with Larry Bird.

You distorted that because you should give someone the benefit of the doubt to not suggest anyone but Reggie Miller can shoot like Bird. Obviously, you don't want to read fairness into someone's basketball analysis regarding Mobley.

besides, Mobley has an unstoppable step back. He can get it off at any time. He's been shooting 2s at 50% during the last 24 games that I have stats for. He's been practicing this. he did not really shoot this shot prior to this year that much, so you can throw out previous years. He shot it a little bit on the PNRs last year, but not much, and not the year before.

Is it a prediction of mine to say that this step-back that he really started showcasing featuring in this camp is starting to jell? Maybe it is. but from my experience, the shot has been improved, and it is safe to say that he in on to something...that's why we are talking about his improvement.

Do you honestly think scouts look at lifetime stats to see whether Mobley has improved his midrange or developed an unstoppable goto? That's all I'm saying here.

So, you think it is because of the rules change???? Many people here are remarking about how the stroke as actually changed. I don't think you look at shooting as close as many here. You seem all logic and stats. Basketball is not logic and stats, Fantasy Leagues are. Some people can see differences in mechanics.

Now explain to me how ones 2ptr% stays the same and overall FG% stays the same but 3ptr% take a drastic jump...look it up; you are wrong. He actually is shooting the worst for the season at 2ptrs this year. But that is an aberration as you say due to the zones early. But now he has adjusted to them and is shooting 50% 2s since January.

Furthermore, in the last 46 games in 1999-2000, Cuttino shot exactly 50.0% on 2 pointers.

Isn't that good????

Who cares about season stats when a shooter makes midseason corrections that stick for the remainder of the year? He learns from his mistakes and corrects his shooting problems. that's my contention....he improves from his mistakes.

So, you don't buy into a workaholic improving his shot? good grief man, you don't make sense at all. Then what has he improved on this year, nothing? Workaholics might work on one thing a year. He improved his driving one year to be next to only Iverson, and started running a PNR the next, and now he seems to be focusing exclusively on beating the zones with a midrange and "slowing down" the game as thacabbage and tpl alluded to.

besides, you underestimate how hard that step-back jumper is to hit. If it were so easy to practice like a freethrow, then why didn't Shandon ever learn to shoot?

Enough with the theories. If you can't see a difference in his 3 pt stroke this year, i don't know what to say other than you are the one with theories about zone rules have improved Cats 3s from 35% to 42%?

First off, I do not agree that Francis is taking a lesser role. That statement is a big stretch and further indication that all you want to do is win an argument. Kenny is getting calls at a rate similar to Maurice, and more if he succeeds. Francis is the primary playmaker. Everyone can see that. He runs the show. Do you not agree with that? How is he taking a lesser role? Mobley doesn't run the offense.

you seem majorly preoccupied with points/game.

Even if Francis's role became lesser, you yourself say that that allows Kenny and Cat to "explore their game." If their exploration produces increasing better numbers, isn't that individual improvement. sheesh.

Francis has nothing to do with individual improvement regarding Kenny's Raging Bull move being more successful, or Mobley's increasingly better shooting.

You can say Francis helps Mobley and Kenny get more spacing, but they still have to create their own shots and make them. They are shot creators, afterall.

It is 28 games; get your timing down, already. I've already told you this.

Closing out the last 46 games of 1999-2000 at 46.4% FG% and 50.0% 2pt shooting is a significant piece of a season. You might call it cherry picking, but coaches don't and neither do players.

That is an indication of midseason adjusments taking hold.

If you call that cherry picking, then I call that further indication of how you don't understand how improvement happens in midseasons, or how defenses adjust midseason to a player's improvement. Again, you seem like a Fantasy Head trying to win an argument based on numbers logic.

So you don't think 42% on 3 pointers proves someone can shoot. You know there is only one player in the entire league that has shot more 3s and a higher % that Cuttino this year...only one. Further, I thought your complaint was that he just takes bad shots.

Cuttino is an outstanding shooter. That's why it is so hard for him to get an open shot. Do you not agree with that?

It is 28 games.

So had I started a thread that said, "I think Cuttino has made a mechanical adjustment to his shot, and is reading ISOs better." You would have been OK with that.

Well, that's exactly what I said.

First, he doesn't shoot 43% on his midranges. You can't even look that stat up. Here you are misusing stats again?

Again, you are taking me out of context. We are all clearly talking about his improvement in the midrange based on this run. Look at the title of the thread again, and in that run he is hitting 50% on 2s with not all that many drives to the basket like previous year.

<b>bottomline:</b> If you are not going to allow for drastic improvement in young players, you will never be an NBA Scout and you will never win in Fantasy Leagues.

 

thx for your input JayZ750.

powerful stuff, man.

 

Timing, somebody else raised a good arugument. If you are a scout, is your ONLY decision making factor a career average? Or do you also look at recent play?

If you only look at recent play, then at some point you'd be doomed with Jose Lima. A trend in recent play is your first indicator of things to come. (In Jose's case, bad things)

But you appear to refuse to consider any significance of recent play and for that, I'm glad you don't scout for the Rockets because you suck at it.

The BEST time career averages are meaningful, is when a player's career is OVER. Until then, a player is constantly evolving and making adjustments (due to age, injuries, rules, etc).

In contrast, if short periods of play are meaningless, then I suppose you think "player of the week," "month," "year" are useless accolades and we shouldn't even bother tracking it since EVERY such award is only a fluke. Afterall, a short period of good play isn't the result of any effort put forth by the player. Rather it is the result of some outside factor (such as new rules...which equally apply to everybody) causing a statistical abnormallity.