Case to Draft Taylor Hendricks (Trade Down if Possible)

Agreed on all counts.

While I like Hendricks, Scoot Henderson feels like a good bet for the future top 15-25 player that we desperately need.

If someone trades up to 3 and snatches Scoot, I will be supremely annoyed.

 

Where can you find the full games versus the international competition? I've been trying to find them but zero luck. I've only seen that one bad performance v Omaha in the TBT. I thought they had to be on youtube somewhere but they've got nothing.

 

I don't think any of them are (publicly? easily?) available, though I'd love to be wrong. I recall Vecenie and Spinella talking about these games, and they referenced that they only had access to the Mega game. I see a link that existed at one point for that full game, but it is no longer available.

So we might just have to deal with guys that talked about the game:



I think the OTE channel might have some more highlights, but again no full unedited games.

 

I agree with this.

Thompson is an exceptional cutter to the basket and has good hands, he would work very well off passes from Sengun.

Likewise, Thompson is a good passer from the paint on drives, he would find easy baskets for Sengun.

Thompson’s size and defense and ability to switch would be a big help for Sengun.

I am pretty confident Sengun is going to be a 36-38% 3 point shooter in the next couple years and he will help the spacing for Thompson.

Last, they both are hard workers with high basketball IQ’s. Thompson and Sengun and Jabari don’t let distractions off the court impact them - which is excellent from a culture perspective.

 

I had a team video editor from a pro team in Spain send them to me. I will see if I can find them or at least the links.

 

They exist - I will see if I can find them, they were emailed to me some time ago.

 

I feel like we're giving up on Garuba far too early and I feel like people are overlooking Taris fit with the starting unit instead of just locking him in as a backup. I just dont see the fit for another tweener 4 even with a projected KJ and Tate trade. A PG or a true 3 is the best fit unless Bari has been working on his handle all summer for a full time move to the 3.

I get Tyrus Thomas with a more developed offensive game vibes from Hendricks.

 

Good points.

When it comes to the physical gifts, I think we lose a lot of information by describing players as “more athletic” or “less athletic” than some comp.

Athleticism and movement skills are not a linear scale. Everybody moves in their own unique ways. Will Amen be the #1 or the #10 athlete in the NBA? Based on what? Vertical leap? You can’t rank these guys, they’re all different.

But what’s definite is that Amen will be a unique athlete in the NBA. There is stuff he can do physically that nobody else can do.

That’s true of only a few players. Zion, Ja, Giannis, younger Westbrook, LeBron obviously, a few others who didn’t become great players.

Obviously Amen has a ton to work on, and I don’t know if he’ll work out, but that’s a great base to build from.

 

You can watch some of the playoff games and the OTE Finals on Amazon Prime if you have it. I think they have some of the other games, too. Just search for something like "City Reapers" and/or "OTE" on Prime Video.

 

The Sad story about Tari is that he is definitely locked behind Green, KPJ, Bari, Sengün and those guys......it is a weird hierarchy at that end but no hierarchy when it comes to shooting.

 

Yeah, I think *most* of the City Reapers games are either on Prime or Youtube (or both). I think the first season finals are on YouTube as well. In a lot of ways, their games and workouts are much easier to watch than most prospects.

https://overtimeelite.com/schedule
I usually use this to jump around to certain games.

It was the European tour games that I was more interested in finding.

 

I have Amen and Miller in the same tier and have him above Miller on my draft board. I see him as a potentially great fit too since we really need a playmaker. I do like Hendricks, I just see him as the kind of safe 3-and-D roleplayer we could grab in free agency (Cam Johnson would be the obvious comparison point in this free agent class.)

I could see trading up from #20 to get him if an opportunity presents itself, but trading back and leaving superstar-caliber upside on the table feels strange, especially when we already have Jabari. What Amen has with his elite athleticism and playmaking is much harder to buy.

But yeah, enjoyed reading your take. Agree to disagree I guess!

 

Heard Amen is now down to 8th in projected draft. He’s dropping after his workouts.

 

You're not wrong but you don't use a #4 pick on a role player when a superstar level talent is there (one of three in this draft). Full stop. Hendricks will never be Jabari Smith. He can't self create and will never be a 1-3 option. I'd prefer Jarace Walker in that case at least he can lead a break and be a zone breaker with his floater and middie.

You draft Hendricks types in the 8-12 range. I liken him more to Lively and Walsh. He's just the most serviceable role player in this draft. Like Gradey Dick but more useful. Not drafting Amen at 4 is like not drafting Victor at 1. That's how I see it. Passing on talent like that gets clowned on for decades. No one makes fun of anyone for passing on Giannis or Kawhi or even Steph. They didn't really project well. But Amen does. Absolutely no to Bagley over Luka.

 

If I'm reading you right, it seems you're in the "we have our guys" camp, and we just need to fill out the roster around them. Is that right? As I think I mentioned earlier, I'm not in that camp. Maybe mostly due to JG. Can he be a Murray defensively when he's ~30lbs lighter (imagine him in a switch-heavy scheme)? And I like JG more than most too. For example, I'm still ok with the decision to take him over Mobley, especially if Mobley fails to develop much of an offensive game. But if we're going to spend (super?)max money on him as a #2 draft pick, and we want to win championships, he'll need to massively improve his game and make up for his limitations. Sengun too, though like a lot of folks, I'm a bit of Sengun homer and think he can maybe do it (at least he has some eye-popping advanced metrics). I'm also fairly optimistic about Jabari, but only as that elite tertiary guy (basically a ~40% 3pt shooter, top 10-15 defensive player, bit of a glue guy), which I think is fine as your big 3rd piece. But if he can't hit those levels, then that's a miss too (as you can likely get 80% of that in a MLE guy).

I guess people want to take the GSW route, which I get, but that's crazy hard to get right. Given our ages, I'm guessing we're 4-5 years away from being true contenders (and that's optimistic I think?). So we'll give Sengun and JG max extension money (presumably at least one ends up with supermax money at some point?). Jabari probably too? Tari will likely need a good chunk of money, and if we take a Hendricks at 4, he's going to be pricey to extend/keep too I'm guessing. If you're in favor of getting the 6 and 11 picks (somehow?), then Hendricks gets a bit less money I guess, but now you have *another* guy to throw big money at (or potentially lose for nothing in ~4 years). We'll be committing all of that money in the next 4-5 years before we're really truly contending.

And none of that factors in the $60M+ that will likely get spent this summer. I guess you can structure deals to not overlap with these other players...but then you're basically saying you're not getting a core piece with that cap space. Which potentially could be a wasted opportunity. Admittedly, the FA class this summer isn't ideal, so I get it...though there's always trades. And keep in mind Rockets have limited draft capital, so it might be a challenge to get cheap value deals through the draft moving forward (guess they get it back when they should be contending).

Vecenie and Spinella talked about the Pelicans roster, which I think can illustrate these potential issues. They have Zion and Ingram as their big two. I think that's actually a decent top 2 if healthy (big if), but yeah that's 60M-80M committed in cap space over the next few years with just those 2 guys (and that will continue to grow). Throw in a Trey Murphy (Vecenie has him pegged as 20M+ when his rookie contract is done IIRC). Throw in C.J. McCollum @ $30M (maybe you can swap him for a younger player with similar impact via trade). Throw in a Herb Jones. That's a ton of money committed, and you don't even have a starting center (Jonas Valanciunas is currently making ~$15M, and probably due for 20Mish in his next deal?). Also no bench. Can this team beat the Nuggets over the next few years?

You can do a similar thought experiment with the Hawks (Young, Murray, Capela, Hunter, Collins, etc). Probably the Wolves too (KAT, Gobert, and ANT alone could be getting like ~$130M once ANT gets extended). And so on.

Of course, if you're a true contender like GSW, maybe you just eat all those luxury tax costs and bask in the light reflecting off all of your NBA Championship trophies. But if you're *not* getting that trophy...this is not going to be sustainable. If you ask me if this roster looks more like a young GSW or a young Pelicans/Hawks/Wolves/etc team, realistically I'm going to say probably the latter.

If you're not a top 15 or 30 NBA guy, you're expendable. I like Tari or a theoretically elite role playing Taylor Hendricks, but if they want 20M-30M a year after their rookie deals, good luck with your new team. I'll take a vet at half that cost who can likely provide 80-90% of the same impact (we're talking about 4th or 5th guys in the pecking order most likely?). This honestly feels more like the Nuggets approach IMO, where they drafted and built around Jokic/Murray/MPJ, and then the rest of the roster was filled in via FA/trades primarily.

This is why I'm entirely focused on getting that top 2-3 core right, and I don't really care if there are players with much higher floors that are available (unless that floor is at top 15 player in the NBA). In a way, I might even prefer a low floor guy in this stage as at least I *know* not to commit big money to that player long term. The goal is to win championships, and winning 20 games or winning 40 games or making it to the 2nd round of the playoffs means little difference to me. Getting a Hendricks at #4 feels like a no-brainer to improve the expected win total of the team (and he's possibly the best player available in 90 of 100 simulations or whatever), but I'm not sure it really changes the championship odds much.

Sorry to spew out so many words at a small part of your post. I've been giving a lot of thought around team building lately (especially with these Finals), and I guess I wanted to get all those thoughts out there...in one single post.

 

The Rockets have a new coach. I would not put Tari as locked behind all of those guys. Sure, he'll have to improve to jump one or more of them, but I don't think his future is that decided.

 

From Sam Vecenie’s just released draft guide…

07. Taylor Hendricks | W/F | UCF | Birthdate: Nov. 22, 2003 (Age: 19) | 6-8 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

Mother is Danielle. Brother Tyler also plays on UCF. Also has another brother, Jamal. Hendricks emerged quickly as a high-lev- el player when young, going to play at NSU University School when it was loaded with elite talent such as Scottie Barnes, Jett Howard and Vernon Carey as a freshman. Hendricks won a state title there, then transferred after his sophomore year to Calvary Christian and became an integral player on another state champion team. That summer, he played for Each 1 Teach 1 on the Nike EYBL circuit, where he was considered essentially the third-best prospect on the team behind Brice Sensabaugh and Dil- lon Mitchell. Played his senior season at Calvary Christian and won another state title, this time picking up the Broward County Player of the Year award and emerging as one of the fastest-rising recruits in the country. He ended up being ranked in the top 70 as a consensus recruit, a solid four-star player. He committed to UCF over offers from nearly every in-state school, including Miami (Fla.), Florida and Florida State, as well as LSU. He wasn’t seen as a one-and-done entering the season, but scouts quickly got their eyes on him after standout performances against Florida State, Santa Clara and Oklahoma State. Played a combination of the four and five at UCF this past season and had tremendous success. Won nine AAC Freshman of the Week awards (most in the conference) and finished behind Houston’s Jarace Walker for Freshman of the Year within the league. Earned All-Freshman honors in the league, as well as second-team All-AAC honors. Declared for 2023 NBA Draft and was consistently considered a potential lottery pick throughout the process. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine.

STRENGTHS
Hendricks is a good athlete with a strong frame that should play well long term in the NBA. He’s 6-foot-8 without shoes with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and a build that should continue to fill out. Very vertical athlete and explosive. Can really rise off two feet to either swat shots or throw down massive dunks. Mostly a two-foot leaper as opposed to a guy who can also go off one right now. But he’s also quite fluid in how he moves laterally. Good hip flexibility. Runs the court extremely well and has plus hand-eye coordination. Very effective crashing the offensive glass. Puts all these skills to good use and ends up putting down some put- back dunks as well as getting some tip-outs for teammates.

Hendricks’ best traits right now come on the defensive side. A real weakside rim protector, and his sense of timing at that end is tremendous. He times his leap with when the scorer takes off incredibly well. Goes up mostly off two feet and is ready to meet his man at the rim with strong hands and a balanced center of gravity. Has awesome anticipation for when his services are needed to clean up messes. Very clean footwork and good reactivity. Just goes up to get it. Rotates from both the weak side and from above the foul line when necessary. Always seems to be on time with a huge recovery block. Goes up with terrific verticality. Doesn’t foul. Good rim protector even when he doesn’t block the shot. He was the king of the chase-down block this past season in college hoops. His highlights there rate with some of the best I’ve seen.

He played a lot of five for UCF and was a very switchable one through five at the college level. I’m a bit skeptical that he’ll be able to manage bigger, post-centric fives at the next level, but I buy him as a legitimate one through four switch defender. He can just straight up switch ball screens. Managed lead guards well. Has really good feet. Very fluid mover. Stands a bit upright at times, but it doesn’t really impact how well he moves and can change direction because he can also bend and flip his hips with ease. Gets his chest in front of his man. Love how he uses his length to bother opposing players. Contests every shot. But is also enormous for how quickly he moves, allowing him to just envelop his man in his chest and length. Superb recovery speed even when he gets beat because of his length. Covers an immense amount of ground to contest from behind. Gets blocks this way too. Deals well with guys who are around his size on the block.

Offensively, Hendricks is at his best right now as a shooter. Terrific catch-and-shoot numbers this past season. Made 40.9 percent on over 130 catch-and-shoot 3s. The mechanics are easy and basic in the best way. High release point allows him to shoot over the top of his defender with ease. Reliable over tight closeouts. Really good shot prep where he’s always squared up with his body in alignment with the basket. Takes them off a one-two step or off the hop, plus has some versatility in terms of how he takes them. Best as a spot-up threat right now but has clear room for growth in terms of some movement. Made eight pick-and-pop 3s at a high percentage this past season. Hit three off screens. Made 10 out in transition. Does have a bit of sway to his shot in terms of landing zone and can get a touch inconsistent. But Hendricks projects to make shots off the catch in the NBA.

Can occasionally use the threat of his shot to attack closeouts and get to the rim. Throws down some dunks this way. Reads the play well as a cutter and dunker-spot threat to finish. If he’s being fed to finish, he’s a good finisher. Issues do arise when he tries to create his own shot at the rim, as we’ll explain below. But he’s explosive and powerful on assisted shots at the rim. In total, he made 58 percent of his half-court shots at the rim, a solid number for a big.